Let’s be realistic.
BTC is, without a doubt, the crypto poster boy and the influence it has on the rest of the crypto market should never be underestimated. We’ve seen a very nice recovery rally over these last couple weeks, but it may be time for a rest and some more consolidation. If big money is moving into crypto as many speculate it is, one thing we can usually be sure of is that big money, smart money, does its very best to not get in a hurry. The market gets bid up, but only to a certain point and a retracement is seen. BTC has rallied right into the flattening 200 day moving average and the 61.8% retrace of a measured short setup within an even larger weekly short. Those setups need to be broken before we have much of a chance to go meaningfully higher. As I see it, $9,750 and $13,000 are the big Fib levels that need to be broken and they surely mark potential upper range limits. Price has been rejected from the first of the two. It could challenge again straight away, or it could retrace into a buy zone for aggressive smart money between $7,700 and $8,100. If the latter happens first, a decent challenge of $9,750 could develop. Either way, any upside challenge would be better seen if it is accompanied by expanding volume. Momentum indicators aren’t showing much weakness yet, so we might get another challenge higher before a pullback into the buy zone I just mentioned. If that happens first, for it to be a decent buy for me, we’d really need a volume breakout, and that could happen - remember, not all the buying is smart money. 😉
This will also be a very good time to evaluate your favorite Alts. I want mine to outperform and keep rising as BTC consolidates. Something like what we’re seeing with STEEM. Not only is it important for them to rise more than BTC when all boats are rising on a rising tide, it’s also important for the best to continue rising when BTC takes a breather.
Read the "The Dos and Don’ts" here if you're not aware of my rules.
I'm putting most of my investments in altcoins, instead of bitcoin. In the last two weeks, bitcoin have added a few percentage on top, Steem and EOS have doubled and tripled.
I don't have any doubts about it either. Quality alts are more than capable of outperforming BTC many times over. They have in the past, and I still see an incredible amount of room for it to happen again.
I would still invest more on Bitcoin because of a brand already famous, with the development of lightning network it could accelerate the transactions, and a chance to make it a real currency( i mean global currency) especially to the third world countries like Africa. This could accelerate their economy without intervention of the government, bankers and meddle man.
In spite of all its drawbacks, BTC still has a lot going for it, I agree.
Whatever happens in the next few months wouldn’t make any impact on my investment. I’m in it for long long time and we can’t let these swings get in our heads. I’m pretty sure you noticed when we see nice jump in crypto like for example Steem yesterday, everyone was soo positive and cheering up. Once we pulled back a bit, the spark has died down. As I mentioned, we can’t look at it day by day. For me, it’s really fun seing this beautiful decentralized market swinging all over the place, but eventually going higher and higher. Just a few years ago bitcoin was at $400.00. Now we are at around 9K. Isn’t it beautiful? Just st like most of us here, I believe in BTC, BTS, Steem... That’s what matters.
You're absolutely correct. The only way to really deal intelligently with this is long term. As you say, the day to day swings are fun to watch, and best left at that.
And it's even more fun when your favorite is mooning!
lol 😆 this reminds me the funny way one of the steemiens put it in charts when there was this kind of volatility and sellings. You may have to zoom it in to see it. I had to shrink it a bit, otherwise it would take your whole comment section.
I also believe that the 200 DMA is significant resistance and the first test for price action. Although normal we would not breach the first time trying, I am concerned with not so smart traders like you mention which will look at the failure as a bearish signal and sell into weakness. The bear scenario is also still viable as we did not see a huge capitulation selling to find a bottom like the $5,900 bottom in February. Volume will be the driver of the signal of the next direction of price for sure. One thing for the bulls is that I am sure shorts are still in play and could be squeezed if we get above the 200 DMA.
You are so right about the possibility of a short squeeze! That is if we can get up through that 200 DMA and $9,750.
The most recent low could be a higher low confirmation of the Feb low . . . operative word there is "could".
Excellent analysis.
I am high on BTC only because they have the name...BTC is the darling of Wall Street. That should be enough to push a lot of money into it over the next few years.
Like you STEEM seems like it has much greater potential, at least from this point. I can STEEM easily crossing $100 with all that is going on....
BTC getting over $200K...it could happen but I dont see it being easy.
BTC is the window display, but the real finds are inside the shop!
I feel the same as you! I believe april, may and june will tell a lot about how the year will end. Lets see how things get done.
Regards, @gold84
I loved the way Steeem broke out yesterday with nice volume. I did expected Steem to pull back a bit after yesterday’s move. BTC can be forming right reversed shoulder if it pulls down a bit more and the nicest thing would be, if it broke the resistance with high volume. At this time I love coins such as ETH, EOS, BTS and Steem. Of course almighty bitcoin is the leader, but as you mentioned, there are other coins outperforming bitcoin in a nice way. We just have to patient.
STEEM and EOS are ripping higher once again. Oh how sweet it is!
Good analysis and your pivot points are spot on ! Hopefully crypto markets will mature and this correlation will be broken ! We should note that the 200 SMA is also around 9800$ level.
Thanks for sharing this with us ! :)
I can't take any of the credit. It's all in the Fibs!
. . . and the 200 DMA . . . big psychological numbers . . . volumetrics . . . etc. 😅
@cryptographic,
Yeah, we can't underestimate BTC impact on other crypto coins! But if I am not mistaken STEEM, BTS, ETH, EOS were came as competitors of BTC! At the moment STEEM, BTS, ETH could challenge the volume of transactions of BTC! But they didn't challenge the BTC marketcap so far!
I wish STEEM might challenge BTC marketcap in next 2-5 years of time!
Great analysis and useful discussion! In the crypto world anything is possible! So I am keeping my faith on STEEM than other coins!
Cheers~
You're absolutely correct: there are several competitors on the transactions front, but on the marketcap front, BTC is still more than double its nearest competitor!
@cryptographic - Sir I'm not trusting BitCoin anymore... I'm with BitShares & Steem... If BitCoin rise, BitShares & Steem can make more ROI... There are a lot of active projects are running on Steem blockchain... Therefore, I think Steem crypto currency will make more demand with SMT factor...
+W+
ALWAYS hodl at least ONE Bitcoin. You can make some trades etc..but ALWAYS hodl one.
Even if it might only be a keepsake! 😉