TSS #2 (Updated with why I was wrong about the price) Bitcoin will be worth 1000$ in less than 15 days

in #bitcoin8 years ago (edited)

Edit: The vast majority of this post is still factual except for the forecasting. The edit below should be taken into account and the forecast should start from around 650$ and not 1000$.

Edit (why I was wrong): In this article, for the calculation of bitcoin mining profitability, I use 10 cents per kw/h. Most companies and Chinese must pay their electricity below that price, from as low as 9 cents to 5 cents possibly lower. Thus with a electricity price of 5-6 cents the Antminer s7 is still profitable. I use this site to calculate mining profitability. Most other fact in this article are still exact, except those with prediction which should be adjusted to take into account what I've just written.

https://www.whattomine.com/asic


This post is the 2nd of my #teamsteemseries . It's been 2 weeks since the first one. I want people to go wow when they read my posts. I want to incite people to post on steem. I want to people to understand why I invest in cryptocurrecies and why I think they should too. I invite people to rewrite these information to make them clearer  and make sure to give proper credit. The statistics below were compile on 25/06/2016.

10 facts you should know about bitcoin

Introduction 

  1. Bitcoin will be worth 1000$ in less than 15 days, to maintain its mining profitability. (explained below)
  2. Bitcoin is one of the best performing financial asset of the last 365 days. It have gone up 155%. (explained below) 
  3. Bitcoin price gain 50% since January 1 2016
  4. Bitcoin price gain 160% since May 1 2015.
  5. Bitoin has the 1048th biggest market cap of all the Forbes 1000th biggest public company. (1048/1000 is due to some tied in the forbes's list) 
  6. Cryptocurrencies has the 889th biggest market cap of all the Forbes 1000th biggest public company.
  7. At their highest point they respectivly had the 920th and 764th biggest market cap of all the Forbes 1000th biggest public company.
  8. Cryptocurrencies had a bigger market cap than Toyota industries, Whirlpool, Shimano, Petronas Chemicals, Alco, just to name a few.
  9. Today cruptocurrencies have a bigger market cap than Symantec, Xerox, Hasbro, Mattel, Western Union, just to name a few.
  10. Cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin represent 17.60% of the total cryptocurrency's market cap.

7 Bonus facts:

  1. Bitcoin price gained 90% between 25/05/2015 and 25/05/2016.  
  2. No other online transferable currency has lower transaction fees. (except some other cryptocurrencies) 
  3. Everyone can own some bitcoin, no need for a bank account. 
  4. Bticoin price performance is poised to become the biggest economic news of the year. (probably even before the halving) 
  5. Bitcoin market cap will be in the top 500 biggest publicly own company before year's end.* 
  6. Cryptocurrencies market cap will be in the top 400 biggest publicly own company before year's end.*
  7. These are conservative estimates projecting the steady price rise we've seen between 25/05/2015 and 25/05/2016.

Explanation

1. **On May 25 2016, bitcoin was worth 445$. Bitcoin price will double to 890$ in order to maintain its mining profitability after the halving of July 10. Bitcoin might have already been "overvalued" on May 25 2016, but this date clearly mark a point where bitcoin's price rate of appreciation have shut up way faster than in the 365 days prior. Factor in the average 0.25% daily growth we've seen in the last 365 days prior to May 25 and that leads to 940$, just shy of 1000$. The mining difficulty growth rate increase as it relate to the price of bitcoin if factored in should get us to above 1000$ before or on the day of the halving. **

2. The best year to date performing S&P 500 stocks are: Newmont Mining[106.96%], Southwestern Energy[77.5%], Range Resources[76.17%], Freeport-McMoRan Copper[56.28%], EQT [47.18%], Spectra Energy[45.57%], Cabot Oil[40.35%], NVIDIA [39.25%], Murphy Oil[38.81%], Martin Marietta[37.97%], Tyco [32.06%], NiSource [31.72%], Concho Resources[30.37%], Halliburton [29.75%], CenterPoint Energy[28.95%], Dollar General[28.57%], Cimarex Energy[28.1%]

Conclusion 

My next post in this series will be about steem price, how it relates to what I just said about bitcoin and steem as a whole. This post will build on the first 2 and it will be even more epic. The post you're reading was due more than a week ago. I hope you'll be following me on steemit. I'll add this post and all of my other team steem series to this post [here](https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@teamsteem/dan-larimer-said-one-of-the-most-inspiring-thing-ive-ever-heard "here"). You might want to upvote this one too.

Whether bitcoin is worth more than 1000$ or not even close to it in 15 days this post will still be worth mentionning to anyone wanting to know more about cryptocurrencies. In the end, mining profitability leads to a virtuous cycle of more mining that then makes the bitcoin price go up. Pretty much anyone who knows the very basics of bitcoin can already understand this fact. This cryptocurrency thing isn't a small enterprise. It's base on sound economic principals. It's not going away anytime soon. In fact there's all the signs that this is just going to get better.

Further clarification on mining profitability 

To illustrate this further, let's say antminer s7 still have a 10% profit margin but  would have accounted for 5% of all the electricity use to mine bitcoin. If the price of bitcoin goes down 15% then all antminer s7 become unprofitable but now antminer s9 have bigger profit margin than if the bitcoin didn't go don't 15%. This isn't true in the other scenario. I'm not sure my numbers are correct but the the idea express is mathematically sound.  

Let me expand on this. On May 25 antminer s7 were barely profitable. Let's say for every 90$ worth of electricity they would use they would get 100$ worth of bitcoin, roughly 10% profit.  Now let's say antminer s7 would have accounted for 20% of all the electricity use to mine bitcoin. If the price of bitcoin goes down 15% then all antminer s7 become unprofitable. It would decrease 20% all the electricity used to mine bitcoin making 20% less costly to mine. Every miners will have a bigger profit margin if price doesn't go down 15% and the antminer s7 continue to be profitable. This is reflected in the buy/sell pressure. 

References 

[1] Cryptocurrencies in the S&P 500
[2] Bitcoin Charts
[3] The World’s Biggest Public Companies List - Forbes
[4] Forbe's Pastebin
[5] Best S&P 500 Stocks
[6] Dan Larimer said one of the most inspiring thing I've ever heard (CTO of Steemit, founder of Bitshares)  

Sort:  

On May 25 2016, bitcoin was worth 445$. Bitcoin price will double to 890$ in order to maintain its mining profitability after the halving of July 10.

There is quite a big gap in your reasoning - you fail to explain why the mining profitability should be maintained.

It's quite similar to me saying: The price of Steem will triple in the next 3 months in order to maintain the high payouts for posting the Steem authors are currently enjoying.

I did not mention it implicitly. Thank you for pointing that out as this is one of the most interesting part. I've clarified it in the post.

Let me expand on this. On May 25 antminer s7 were barely profitable. Let's say for every 90$ worth of electricity they would use they would get 100$ worth of bitcoin, roughly 10% profit. Now let's say antminer s7 would have accounted for 20% of all the electricity use to mine bitcoin. If the price of bitcoin goes down 15% then all antminer s7 become unprofitable. It would decrease 20% all the electricity used to mine bitcoin making 20% less costly to mine. Every miners will have a bigger profit margin if price doesn't go down 15% and the antminer s7 continue to be profitable. This is reflected in the buy/sell pressure.

To illustrate this further, let's say antminer s7 still have a 10% profit margin but would have accounted for 5% of all the electricity use to mine bitcoin. If the price of bitcoin goes down 15% then all antminer s7 become unprofitable but now antminer s9 have bigger profit margin than if the bitcoin didn't go don't 15%. This isn't true in the other scenario. I'm not sure my numbers are correct but the the idea express is mathematically sound.

IMO your reply offers the same explanation (or lack of thereof), but it's just more detailed. But it's OK, I did not expect an answer because I don't think there is one.

In my view, all that's needed for Bitcoin price to continue rising is this: people thinking that mining profitability should be maintained due to some imaginary reason. Even if this reason is false, the only fact that really matters is that they strongly believe in what they say. Then the price will actually rise, but not due to this imaginary reason but rather due to their actions.

Miner's will is determine by profitability margin and the price of bitcoin determine by market economy. The fact that higher bitcoin price leads to bigger mining profit margin lead to bitcoin desirability among other things. This feeds onto itself.

The price of bitcoin doesn't bend to the will miners... if you thought that, then you would not be praising it I hope.

I'm willing to debate this. I'll try to understand your point of view. Here's more clarification on my part.

Miner's will is determine by profitability margin and the price of bitcoin determine by market economy. The fact that higher bitcoin price leads to bigger mining profit margin lead to bitcoin desirability among other things. This feeds onto itself.

I don't think the mining activity raises the price of bitcoin. Rather mining puts a cap on what speculators can charge, for miners need to pay expenses in fiat, they must sell. This is different from speculators who really have money they can afford to lose. The miners push the price down. The miner's affect will diminish with the halving. It is the market demand for coins that push it up. There will come a new equilibrium to the BTC price.

I've updated my post. But in short:

Miner's will is determine by profitability margin and the price of bitcoin determine by market economy. The fact that higher bitcoin price leads to bigger mining profit margin lead to bitcoin desirability among other things. This feeds onto itself.

I can't edit the post right now. It says transaction error. I don't understand much about the new editor. I'll try to edit the post later if this transaction error goes away. I hope you guys enjoy this post.

Deselect "vote for yourself" -- right-down corner of the editor. By the way please delete the duplicated post which I've down-voted.

Thank you @abit. I just don't know how to use this new editor. It shows up on how this post is edited. I'll try to rework it.

Hi Team,

Thanks for posting, I hope you're right!

Although the below fact seems to be impossible, as you can't be be 1048th out of 1000

  1. Bitoin has the 1048th biggest market cap of all the Forbes 1000th biggest public company.

Good catch. I was wondering about it also when I first saw this. This is due to some tie in the list.

Hi @teamsteem. As part of my experiment with downvoting posts aged 2 months and above, I tried downvoting this post and I was able to do so. With other posts 3 months and older my downvote was not accepted. Now I tried removing my downvote on this post, but I get the message that I don't have enough voting power or STEEM Power. I will retract my downvote when I get enough STEEM power or voting power. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Good to know! Thank you.

Thanks for being a good sport.

Here's what I got from that experiment:
[ STEEMIT FAQ ] BLOG POST: UNTIL WHEN IS MY POST VIABLE FOR REWARDS?
https://steemit.com/steemit/@cjclaro/steemit-faq-blog-post-until-when-is-my-post-viable-for-rewards

Coin Marketplace

STEEM 0.17
TRX 0.15
JST 0.029
BTC 60968.19
ETH 2367.91
USDT 1.00
SBD 2.56