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RE: TSS #2 (Updated with why I was wrong about the price) Bitcoin will be worth 1000$ in less than 15 days
On May 25 2016, bitcoin was worth 445$. Bitcoin price will double to 890$ in order to maintain its mining profitability after the halving of July 10.
There is quite a big gap in your reasoning - you fail to explain why the mining profitability should be maintained.
It's quite similar to me saying: The price of Steem will triple in the next 3 months in order to maintain the high payouts for posting the Steem authors are currently enjoying.
I did not mention it implicitly. Thank you for pointing that out as this is one of the most interesting part. I've clarified it in the post.
Let me expand on this. On May 25 antminer s7 were barely profitable. Let's say for every 90$ worth of electricity they would use they would get 100$ worth of bitcoin, roughly 10% profit. Now let's say antminer s7 would have accounted for 20% of all the electricity use to mine bitcoin. If the price of bitcoin goes down 15% then all antminer s7 become unprofitable. It would decrease 20% all the electricity used to mine bitcoin making 20% less costly to mine. Every miners will have a bigger profit margin if price doesn't go down 15% and the antminer s7 continue to be profitable. This is reflected in the buy/sell pressure.
To illustrate this further, let's say antminer s7 still have a 10% profit margin but would have accounted for 5% of all the electricity use to mine bitcoin. If the price of bitcoin goes down 15% then all antminer s7 become unprofitable but now antminer s9 have bigger profit margin than if the bitcoin didn't go don't 15%. This isn't true in the other scenario. I'm not sure my numbers are correct but the the idea express is mathematically sound.
IMO your reply offers the same explanation (or lack of thereof), but it's just more detailed. But it's OK, I did not expect an answer because I don't think there is one.
In my view, all that's needed for Bitcoin price to continue rising is this: people thinking that mining profitability should be maintained due to some imaginary reason. Even if this reason is false, the only fact that really matters is that they strongly believe in what they say. Then the price will actually rise, but not due to this imaginary reason but rather due to their actions.
Miner's will is determine by profitability margin and the price of bitcoin determine by market economy. The fact that higher bitcoin price leads to bigger mining profit margin lead to bitcoin desirability among other things. This feeds onto itself.