Bitcoin Daily Update (day 183)

sawcruhteez (55)in #bitcoin • 7 years ago

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about the indicators I use below and click here from my comprehensive trading strategy. Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

1 day - 3 day: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 | 3d - 1 week: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30

Previous analysis / position: Seeing signs of a reversal and very unimpressed with volume on breakout. However decided to hold off on re opening shorts due to green 6 on the TD’ Sequential. Identified Wyckoff Distribution and believe we are at point 11 of Schematic #2 / sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $7,000 - $7,050 | R = $7,125
BTCUSDSHORTS: Currently testing 30,000 for support (was resistance). If it finds support here we could be looking at a Bulkowski Big W.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 & 26 = +4.92% and making bullish cross
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = +1.65% | 128 = -3.91%
Volume: Very unconvincing. Remains below MA on daily and that is a strong indication to me that this is only a temporary squeeze.
FIB’s: 0.5 = $7,161 | 0.382 = $7,462
Candlestick analysis: Tweezer top/bearish spinning top forming on daily.
Ichimoku Cloud: As expected the cloud and Kijun-Sen are acting as resistance.
TD’ Sequential: Green 7 indicates two days left to the upside.
Visible Range: Low volume node from $7,100 - $7,300 with 3 month look back.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -0.35% | 24h = -0.4% | 1w = +10.63% | 2w = +12.06% | 1m = -14.56%
Bollinger Bands: Last two daily candles closed outside BB. Feels very similar to July 19th.
Trendline: Descending triangle. Could also connect August 22 - August 26
Daily Trend: choppy
Fractals: DOWN = $6,210 | UP = $8,321
On Balance Volume: Following price, no div
ADX: ADX finding support at 15?
Chaikin Money Flow: Bear div’ on weekly. Pulling back on daily and about ready to create a bear div as well.
RSI (30 setting): W = 50.02 | D = 51.78
Stoch: Overbought on daily. Plenty of room to go on 3d.

Summary: Feeling very confident in selling this bounce. Nothing about it makes me feel like it will be sustainable. It is a short squeeze and it is not causing FOMO buyers to pile on like it did in April.

Due to green 7 on TD Sequential I am expecting two more days to the upside and will be crossing my fingers for a 9 at resistance combined with a reversal candle to provide a perfected entry.

It rarely works out like that and I will be prepared to start opening shorts today if we continue to retrace much further. Will be watching for today’s candle to retrace 50% or more in relation to yesterday’s candle to indicate that this rally is exhausted.

Will be sticking with the plan of shorting alts instead of BTC.

Thanks for reading!