12/5/2017 The Market View and Trading Outlook
Another day of Bulls vs Bears in the Bitcoin Market. As I discussed yesterday we found resistance in the $11,600 area that led to a few rapid sell offs. Interestingly though, $11,500 has proven itself to be a rather formidable short term support level having fought off the Bears a handful of times.
Bitcoin does appear to be trending up; however, based on the fundamentals I still find myself lacking faith. I find my inability to drink the recent Kool-Aid stems from basic fundamental analysis of the charts. First the volume, yesterdays volume was 35% less than the preceding day, yet the price slowly ticked upwards. To me and every other technical analyst of chart patterns this is a warning sign of reversal.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2014/01/11/volume-always-precedes-price/#441880ff18a3
https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/daytraders-4676/
The 12 hour MACD is showing more balance with Bitcoin neither overbought or oversold which may indicate a shorter term run up and new highs. How long that will hold I'm unsure.
The 1day, 3day and 1 week are showing Bitcoin to have exceptional upside divergence. This is an indicator that price will have to come down to once again find balance, it also shows buying action is cooling off as the market is somewhat uncertain.
Moving averages; we are too far extended from all key moving averages, which again indicates that the price will be coming down at some point.
http://www.futuresmag.com/2017/07/28/reading-between-lines-trading-envelopes
https://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/techanalysis9.asp
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_averages
If I were to drink the Kool Aid and buy into the irrationality I could see continuing hype based appreciation to $20,000 prior to crashing 60 percent or more to wherever the moving average support lines are at that point.
As a practical investor with common sense I just cannot justify the assumed risk that would accompany tossing my money in at this point. Especially in light of the numerous $600-$1000 drops that have occurred in minutes wiping away hours and hours of hard fought gains. Call me a pussy, but I’m going to sit out in the short term and wait to make a move at the start of the next 3 day buying session on the MACD.
I also think there is a strong possibility that the futures traders coming in very soon will short this thing into the dirt. As stated I'm going to play my cards close to my chest and remain cautious until it all shakes out. There are always opportunities to make percentage points when you adhere to your strategy and remain disciplined.
Etherium @467
Etherium like Litecoin is waiting on Bitcoin to make a move. Price has been hovering in this area for the past few days while Bitcoin bounces all over the place. If you are feeling risky then trade the 1 hour time frames looking to get in and out on smaller percentage gains. Don’t be greedy, and keep your exposure small.
LiteCoin @ 102
Slightly off its 107 high, I could see lightcoin bouncing around the $100 mark throughout the rest of the day depending upon the state of Bitcoin. Trade the shorter term trends and look for high $90 buys and fast sells at anything above that. Of note, Litecoin volume usually spikes higher with rising prices prior to a large upwards move by Bitcoin. To that end Bitcoin touched a new $11,900 high this A.M. on some really shitty volume where Litecoin acted contrary to its usual price action in this regard.
While irrational I sometimes use LiteCoin as an indicator of an indicator due to my conspiracy theory mindset of those in the know (big money) using Bitcoin to manipulate Litecoin prices for gains. As I did not see the usual spike in LiteCoin price prior to the move by Bitcoin this morning it lessons my faith in either asset at this price level. That said I feel as though both may be over inflated. If you just love risk, then by all means jump in on the shorter time frames and try and snipe .50 cents here and there, but be careful as a sharp reversal is just around the corner that could see $10, $15, or $20 drops occur in seconds.
Taking all that into consideration I am going to HODL my original predictions here:
Prior Days Analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-4-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-3-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-2-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
Hola @pawsdog recibe nuestro humilde voto.
Pues @nnnarvaez consideró que tienes el don de ofrecernos una gema y te otorgo nuestro...
Llámalo cuando quieras, avisa a @nnnarvaez si alguien lo utilizó donde exista plagio. Si tienes preguntas búscanos en discord Reveur-Venezuela
I think I just got my first spam comment? English Hombre... All I see is some writing that resembles genitals and family, so I'm not sure how to make a connection there.
I fully agree on the BTC analysis. I think futures trading might not be as good as some think. It will be very interesting on Dec, 10th.
Same here, I have to make the wild assumption that those traders will be a bit more sophisticated and see it for what it is. This can be a double edged sword as they may likewise see that the minnows are hungry and throw in enough food to whip them into a frenzy and spike the price before draining the pond.
Futures are a tool for the bears, so the price will drop :)
If you trade futures you can manipulate the market to make your prediction stick, unless the market is humungus, but we all know even the usd market is manipulated, so trust and debt balance...
Sprinkle a little faith and don't get caught in the big boys trap ...
I agree, and thank you for the excellent comment...
I really really like these daily articles dude. At lot of the technical analysis I see is of no use to me because I wasn't quick enough to act on it and the moment has passed, or I just don't have the funds spare to take any position.
Your analysis is a whole holistic view and therefore heaps more interesting to me. BTC is $11920.21 right now and I'm super keen to see what happens.
I was wondering what was happening with LTC in particular, it has seemed extremely stable the last couple of days, which is not ideal for day-traders, but actually super ideal for the utility of the coin as an actual currency.
Thanks again!
LTC stable? 100 percent increase in 30 days from $50 to $100 without a pullback? Not my idea of stability but ok. I have to have faith in the charts.. It's tough man, the FOMO monster is strong.. but more often than not giving in to FOMO will get you fucked. So I'll just do what the charts say.. Thank you for your kind words.. ReSteem.. let us grow together...
Hahaha, this goes to show the in-depth and longer-term view you provide... LTC hasn't whipsawed around in the last two days, and so in my limited experience that was stable. Haha, okay, I'll need to look at things with a much wider lens.
I completely agree, every crypto decision I've made has been FOMO induced (I should have studied way more before getting into the space) and I realise now I've been very, very, very lucky to have not lost money.
Sometimes you just need to step back a bit from the trees to see the forest, and evaluate the bigger picture and what lies beyond...
All the Bitcoin Bulls and members of the FOMO crowd are staring at the first image. I prefer to take a wider view...
Mt. St. Helens..
Hahaha man, you are so good at this blogging business... In other news I can see Mt St Helens from the top of my street... how is that for a daily reminder to invest carefully.
Wow, that's pretty cool.. and I'm not that good.. I just talk a lot of shit.. Are you actually Aussie? I lived in Tindell for a while at the RAF base..
I'm Aussie but I moved to the US to try my hand at competing on the tv show American Ninja Warrior. We're in Oregon at the moment. It's really nice here, I love it. I was in Melbourne which is similarish to Oregon, Tindell is very, very different... way hotter and more humid. I've never been to Townsville, but I've definitely got to give it a visit when we move back.
I'm to old for Ninja Warrior.. that time has passed..lol. Best of luck though.. yeah it was hot AF there and the Aborigines were interesting.. like the people that time forgot, that just live off the system and free government money. Got into a fight with one in town, when he kept begging me for money, got pissed when I told him "no" said he could go fuck himself.. 6 Marines Vs 12 Aborigines. I still have a beer bottle scar on the back of my head from that go round.. lol.. good times... Thats when I found out the Aussie Cops don't really like them either.. Strange group they are...
Really good post!
I liked the analysis and i share the feeling.
What would be your estimation for a bottom upon the correction ?
Right now all my positions are STEEM and USD (a few XVG but to humor a friend :P as apparently it is the next thing lol)
@reveur ven 100
Well in all time prior, BTC falls to a moving average the 50 or so and slams 10 to 15 percent beneath it prior to bouncing back. I use 7/21/77 on my charts for Moving averages.
and today is a crazy new day lol- things change so fast in cryptoland
I know right.. BTC used the support level to build a nice base for further gains.