12/11/2017 The Market View and Trading Outlook
Bitcoin seems to be holding quite well and in fact gaining a bit of ground since the introduction of the futures market. Will these gains hold? In the long run I believe they will. In the short term, the next few weeks etc. I’m not so sure. What I do know is that the charts have to be honored. Prior to the speculative bump at exactly 5:30 p.m. yesterday to coincide with the introduction of the futures market Bitcoin was trending down towards a natural correction. It was doing exactly what it was supposed to do and honoring the metrics of the chart which on the 12 hour, 1 Day, 3 Day and 1 Week showed divergence between the MACD and signal, a decreasing histogram and overbought conditions on the StochRSI.
Some of the imbalance in the indicators, specifically the 12 hour was smoothed out during the fight for $13,000 the day prior. The sell off during that period showed that Bitcoin has huge support in the $13,000 zone as it was tested numerous times during the night and failed to break. The resulting bullish momentum from the successful defense resulted in a run up that did not appear destined to last until it received the bump from the futures speculators. If you look at the charts directly prior to the introduction of futures you can see that BTC was trending down and on the verge of another slide to test $14,000 then $13,000.
What I expect to happen is likely a further run up, followed by some consolidation and sideways trading. There are two ways that Bitcoin can honor the indicators and remove the upside divergence that could pull it down. The first is an obvious sell off and correction which will bring the MACD/Signal line together. In the event this occurs BTC will gain downward momentum on the indicators and will pass the balance point and end up with a negative divergence that will serve to add momentum on the way back up. The other way that the indicator can be honored is significant time sideways trading in a range to allow the moving averages to begin catching up and the indicators time to smooth out. In the event that the latter occurs expect Bitcoin to trend up and down from $14,500 to $17,000 over a period of weeks.
As it stands at this moment, the 1 day chart looks a bit more Bullish, not a tremendous amount of divergence and the RSI is placing us at oversold condition. As the indicators do not agree in entirety I have to look toward volume which is again bullish.
As I go further out to the 3 day and 1 week, the picture gets a bit more bearish in regards to divergence and being in an extreme overbought condition.
Today I would expect more of the same, expect Bitcoin to continue trending up, with minor corrections here and there. What I am watching is the 4,6,12 hour time frames on the MACD
ETH @ $469
I see ETH as a buy, I don’t expect it to break any records today, but maybe with the current health of the market I can certainly see it trending upwards throughout the day. I would not be surprised to see $500 today, most likely the high $400’s. I say buy, hold, set a stop.. If you can set a trailing stop all the better. Either way expect a move in ETH after Litecoin.
********I want to add to this (AND THIS IS IMPORTANT) the 1 day MACD just went GREEN for ETH for the first time since November 28th. This is indicative of an extreme price run up in the works. The last time the indicator went GREEN Ethereum was $294 or 38 percent ago. A similar run up would put us at $640-$650. So I could even see myself picking up some ETH to HODL with a stop at $450 which I will move up as the price goes up. ******
Litecoin at $165
I see Litecoin as a major buying opportunity. Litecoin buyers are still hungry, from all these highs and run ups. The most recent mini correction did little to dissuade buyers and all the metrics on the MACD point to an extreme buying opportunity. I will be in LTC today.
Previous Analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/5ceniq-12-9-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@pawsdog/12-9-2017-the-market-view-and-trading-outlook
I think you nailed it. I'm going to watch it through your eyes and see what happens. Great post.
Thank you.. trading is actually how I make my living.. have not had a real job in years.. I guess I could be called a professional trader. Though I don't like the title, I'm just a guy that like to trade, has discipline and does what the charts tell me to do.
It seems I've been buying at highs on everything I do lately, I wanted to get into litecoin and was really shocked yesterday at the price, so once again I didn't get any.
@gyro,
Let me be brutally honest... YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THE FUCK YOU ARE DOING!!!!!.. Now that said...take it with a grain of salt as there was once a point where I HAD NO IDEA WHAT THE FUCK I WAS DOING!!!. I'm not being insulting I'm pointing out my own flaws at a certain point and seeing you currently in the same place that I have once been. That said, I'm not the oracle, or a trading savant.. I lose money almost everyday at some point.. that is the truth.. almost everyday I will lose a trade.. without a doubt.. today I lost $400.00 due to GDAX deciding to fucking update at the moment Litecoin was at $197 trying to reach a new high.. When GDAX decided to come back online BITFINex had dropped the price to $184... so I had to sell and protect my capital.. I lost that trade. $400 gone.. good bye, see ya later... but that's o.k. because I stuck to my rules.. That said.. I waited regathered myself, pissed at GDAX but is what it is.. and watched the charts..I found an opportunity to buy and got back in at $192 on a small 15 minute pull back that was supported by the 1hr, 1 day etc.. so I rode the wave back up to $234 sold, bought back in at $216, sold at $227, bought back in at $221, sold at $226.50..at the end of the day.. with current positions holding I'm up and comfortable. While I'm not going to discuss finances on a public forum, I trade 100-250 LTC at a time current price.. It's easier for me to know the sum up or down when $1.00 move = $100 loss/gain.
The best advice that I can give you is four fold
Do not get discouraged, we all lose money in the beginning.. think of it as paying for an education.
Learn to think opposite of how you currently think, the market works because of people like you and at one time, people like me.. It feeds on your emotion, it anticipates it and fucks you over accordingly.. Learn to think exactly opposite of how you currently think..To put it more clear..At the level I assume you are at.. When you are looking to buy, I'm putting in sell orders...You have to be able to go against what you FEEL.. FEELINGS are what takes your money and puts it in my pocket..
Go here: https://cryptowat.ch/gdax/ltcusd/5m and just watch the 1hr, 15 minute, 5 minute charts continuously for an entire buy/sell cycle.. get coffee, stay awake you may be up for 24 hours or more.. but just watch how the machine works.. watch the candlesticks, the volume the MACD.. watch it.. learn to read it.. I have 1000's of hours just watching it tick away, little green and red candle sticks.. but you learn so much if you just watch an entire BUY/SELL cycle.. you learn how it moves, changes, reacts etc. It's really a living organism.. and you need to study it.. feel it.. and understand it..
fuck it... LEARN TO EXIT A POSITION AND FUCK IT.. protect the capital.. so what if it goes up after you leave, what did you lose? If you are ever in a position where you are not comfortable for any reason, say FUCK IT and leave it.. I have exited many positions I did not feel good about only to see the price go up later.. Oh well.. I lost nothing.. but I could of lost a lot.. so fuck it.. reset, regather, look at the charts and plan another trade at a suitable buy point.. Again totally not being a dick, I feel you I really do.. I have been there saying if I would of sold every time I bought I would be up and not down.. I have been there I really have.. I'm here if you have any questions.. best of luck.. and message me or comment anytime. I try and respond to every comment..
This is the most incredible comment I've ever read on this entire platform. Actually, screw that, on any social media platform ever.
Also, what is an entire Buy/Sell cycle? I tried to Google it and nearly bought a bike.
Go to the link I provided and select MACD as an indicator. In very simple terms GREEN GOOD< RED BAD.. a buy/sell cycle happens numerous times in every time frame. If you look at the 1 minute time frame you will see it go GREEN when people are buying and RED when people are selling. Each smaller cycle influences the time frame above it. So a solid 1 minute buying cycle, will pull the 3 minute green, then the 5, 15, 30, 1 hr, 2 hr, 4, 6, 12, 1 Day etc.. but a solid buying cycle on a small time frame that is not supported by a larger time frame will likely fizzle and die. You have to watch it.. watch how all the time frames relate to each other, influence each other etc. It's a living thing..
Ah. Trading view doesn't have the green and red lines... it just has lines above or below a line... which I've never really paid attention to before. I'm constantly flicking between the different time frames to try and read the trends...
So a buying cycle is like a flurry of buy trades? Is a buy/sell cycle where a green stick turns to a red stick?
https://cryptowat.ch/gdax/ltcusd/5m
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_average_convergence_divergence_macd
Thanks I try to be helpful..
This is the truth! especially #2 and #3.
Thank you I try and help out as much as I can
Perfect example I was not feeling good about LTC at $130.. I exited.. it shot to $140.. Fuck it.. I'll pick it back up at another buy point.. I lost nothing..
I'm in the office this week and so was intending to stay in Fiat until I got back... but the lure of Crypto was too great.
I've been watching BTC, ETH and LTC all day. Started the day with a cheeky little entry in BTC, wondering if 8am Chicago time might spring it up a bit... it didn't... sold at a huge $1 profit and so didn't do much until I saw LTC hit $199 in Bittrex. It'd been testing all day, and once it looked like it was going to break that psychological level I got in, and man it was a full on feeding frenzy, I've never seen orders snapped up so quick. I rode it for minutes to $212 and got nervous and sold. It did get up to $220ish but only for minutes.... and that's when my boss busted me trading at work... we had a long convo about Bitcoin but I decided I should just park spare funds in ETH and take a break for a week... and have just noticed now that rocketed up while I wasn't looking.
All in all a fun day in the markets... IT work really doesn't seem a fraction of the fun now. Thanks for ruining my entire career BTC.
I have been in and out of LTC in 100 LTC chunks all day long.. been a good day.. think I'm gonna do another all nighter maybe and ride the waves... Loving LTC at the moment and what is about to happen with ETH as well.. I'm thinking a $650 ETH.. in a few weeks.. LTC will gas out before $300 I think, but that is just my at the moment guess without seeing what the next correction brings.. so we will wait and see. Things change daily.. ETH is about to go way the fuck up.. based on the charts.. I have milked LTC since $48.. so it's been a real good month.. I think $250 may be a mental barrier on LTC. I may be wrong.. but will see what the charts tell me..
Also LTC will be back to $220 at some point I would think, probably going to have to retest the $200 so I'm not stressing it.. I'll wait for the charts to tell me of a solid buy point.. There will be a pull back on these gains.. there always is...
It's still at $220 now... but yeah, the more I learn about the market, the more predicable human behavior is. I really don't have much on the line, but I'm absolutely loving the ride.
I dumped my LTC earnings into ETH at $471... I was just looking for a quiet place to store them... never been happier to be wrong. I would normally cash out before bedtime, but I honestly do think I'll just keep it in ETH for the week... I don't have time (or the boss's patience) to play the game until I get back home with my 6000 monitors.
Glad you had a great day in LTC.... I thought of you when I saw it take off...