A Personal Crypto Revelation and a Prediction
Following Jamie Dimon's infamous statements regarding Bitcoin a few month back, Bitcoin itself has been rising from strength to strength.
Jamie Dimon, and by extension, JP Morgan, have been snubbed by the general public, both for the statements that were made, as well as the crypto dealings that followed.
Well... even though these past three months have put these statements to shame, I have as of late been increasingly furrowing over the crypto price movements.
What if he wasn't completely wrong?
What if his words were intended to test the robustness of any "bubble"?
And that this robustness was in and of itself an indication of how far Bitcoin could rise.
A little like tugging on a rope to see if it will support your weight.
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Say What?!
Now before you dismiss this notion, let me expand upon my reasoning.
And, just a side-note, I have zero holdings in Bitcoin (full-disclosure).
I cannot say that I don't regret it.
But let me proceed and begin by sharing why I think that Bitcoin shall continue to rise.
This may be summarized as follows.
Bitcoin has been on the radar for a long enough time...
...and that portion of people for whom such was has been growing...
Not only this - but I am also growing aware that its not just about awareness.
Its also about faith.
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Faith is what determines the degree of each participant's investment.
So...
Its not just about the numbers but also the degree of commitment...
...and this is why Bitcoin in particular has been sky-rocketing.
...
Now that I put it this way its seems quite obvious to me... but perhaps its less obvious to a fair number of others.
In other words...
Bitcoin is only now entering the phase of 'mainstream adoption'
People who believed in Bitcoin from the start are doubling-down on their investments as they see those numbers rise and rise and fall and rise.
All the while, people who were skeptics are ever greater getting the sense that they are missing out - and so they become swayed to enter into the fray.
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Yes, there is a lot going on with Bitcoin...
But is Bitcoin truly the greatest crypto out there?
From what I've been hearing?
Not by a long shot!
The technology behind Bitcoin is relatively rudimentary - serviceable if so - but other cryptos have learnt from Bitcoin's limitations - and simply have a superior technological foundation.
And yet when one looks at the other "better" Bitcoins... they don't hold a candle to Bitcoin.
This in itself is very telling, at least to me. The hype is real.
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To be clear, hype is not a bad thing.
To have hype surround a thing does not take anything away.
It channels attention and funds.
However hype and expectations can become divorced from true value.
That which is perceived and that which is can grow ever further apart.
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Well...
With this in mind, and considering the likelihood that Bitcoin is in its peak of up-take, I have to say that Jamie Dimon may very well turn out to be proven correct...
...but it may be many months - or probably a few years... before the "bubble" bursts.
You see... with these observations made within this little post of mine, such has had a knock-on effect upon my feel for how things are connected... and those things that are connected... to me are like dominoes waiting for a nudge.
I see the dominoes lined up - and I 'think' that I have an inkling of how and 'why' they might fall.
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OK Smartie Pants. Why?!
Well... do you recall those charts that you glanced over a couple minutes ago (hint: look up the article again)?
Well... do you recall how I 'think' that Bitcoin is at its point of greatest ascent?
That point where up-take is at its greatest, when people who are already in are upping their stake?
Well... the funny thing about both those things is that there will come a point where the up-well of newcomers and increased stake will no longer be able to support the hype.
Which will result in a situation where disillusionment will take over... with a few stutters... and then a massive correction.
But 'how' I think it shall correct is also worth a glance.
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Uh huh... How?
Well... Bitcoin is one crypto.
Bitcoin has thus-far been the gold-standard... but whispers of mutiny in the ranks have been echoing across the space.
Coin by coin. Token by token. Fork by fork... and perhaps a spoon too.
Awareness within the space and awareness beyond the space is, within my limited perspective - as distinct as diametrically opposed seasons.
And this awareness is more likely to seep through in times of boons and crisis.
And it would be fair to say that a burst could count as a pretty serious crisis.
So here is what I'd expect to see.
Those with holdings in Bitcoin would engage in a mass exodus... to alternatives - altcoins.
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Litecoin. Ethereum. EOS. Steem. Bitshares.
All of these and more would see an up-well almost (by that point) unprecedented in their collective histories.
Yes. Some will cash in on that up-well... but this is not the point.
The crypto space would live beyond the (eventual) fall of Bitcoin.
And like the dotcom bubble - the crypto infrastructure would have vastly benefited from the years of boon.
And that should be good news upon many fronts.
How so? Well... my 'revelation' can only carry my foresight so far.
Time for speculation - but in the fires of crisis I'd expect the space to undergo a process of being forged.
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But hey. That is just what I think! I could be completely wrong... (and so could Jamie Dimon!). Yeah... I kind of didn't have to plug Jamie for sharing this perspective - but thinking about this 'did' remind me of that little episode that he got tangled in.
Whether you find yourself in agreement or not I'd really like to hear from you down in the comments. I'd 'really' like to hear the thoughts of individuals here who actually 'know' their crypto (unlike me). I am sure that we could all benefit from your added wisdom. ^_^
Also, if you found this post interesting and would like to share this with your followers and friends then a resteem is always appreciated.
Sincerely,
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I completely agree with your assessment. Ever since I have become embroiled within the blocksize debate I have lost my faith in Bitcoin almost entirely. And thus I have found myself in extreme anxiety every time the coin seems to do anything.
Without faith then the rollercoaster ride gets ever more intense. This low may actually the low of all lows. And that next high doesnt make sense in light of the faulty technology that Bitcoin posses.
And on top of that, lightning network and Segwit are not necessarily good solutions once you begin looking into how they would actually function. While segwit is not bad in and of itself the lightning network raises a lot of extremely big questions.
How expensive will the nodes be to run? I cant help but imagine that a lightning network node will be at least a thousand dollars. The only places that will inevitably run them will be banks, corporations and local businesses. Not to mention the fact that you will also now be running all transactions through the lightning network hub which can then allow for control on who is allowed to use the hubs.
I don't carry BTC anymore. And I plan to avoid holding LTC the moment I can jump off to something I do want to hold. Possibly ETH but maybe something else.
Thank you kindly, @thecastle, both for your up-vote as well as for your in-depth comment. :c)
'The bigger they are, the harder they fall.'
This mantra has been upon my mind. While it has not really served me to make the wisest of trading decisions, it does help me to identify inflated coins as being 'higher risk'. And this while again noting that I acknowledge my crypto-rookie status.
Seguits, nodes, lightning networks and supernodes are all beyond my present level of comprehension, but I do concur that coins and tokens with better application cases will be better placed to prevail in the eventuality of a bitcoin deflation.
Since I'm new I've spread around a little. Ups and downs. Hoping for a non-bumpy ride. :cP
Thanks again for your feedback and analysis!
Bitcoin obviously isn't the best crypto out there but I believe it won't crash until crypto has become mainstream when most of the people understand the technology and know there are better alternatives.
Thank you @celestal, both for your up-vote as well as your comment. :c)
I don't know. It seems to me that upon the adoption curve, Bitcoin is likely approaching the late stages of the 'early adopter' phase. Again, 'Bitcoin' specifically.
I agree with your notion that 'some' people will understand that some Bitcoin alternatives have a better technological basis - and that this will result in a movement from Bitcoin to these altcoins.
In essence this could be similar to getting off one wave before it wipes out, to end up on another wave that is just beginning to form. Exciting times.
Thanks again. :c)
Yes, I think we are soon reaching the main stream considering that the other day my mom warned me on the phone that there was a guy in the news (a banker, or course) who warned about the potential bubble of Bitcoin or just crypto in general:
But the bubble news is just a good thing because it gets more people involved with crypto in general, even if the Bitcoin bubble proves right eventually.
But like you said, exciting times and it really seems like 2018 could be a massive step for crypto with the momentum that the huge increase in Market cap has started in 2017 still being just a tiny fraction compared to the huge scale of all the other markets.