For those stating the current Bitcoin bear market is similar to 2014's, you are right! Sort of.

in bitcoin •  6 months ago

Bitcoin is currently in the midst of an unrelenting bear market, one that hasn't been seen since roughly 2014.

Many bears out there are pointing to what happened from 2013-2015 as the blueprint for what is likely to happen during this current bear market.

Meaning that they think it still has a lot longer to go.

Except there are a couple very large differences this time around...

The number of people, amount of money, and the popularity of bitcoin are all vastly different than they were in 2014.

Which means, it would be pretty surprising to see things play out exactly the same way they did previously, especially in terms of time.

Comparing charts:

Take a look at the chart of bitcoin from 2013 to 2015.

Specifically, notice the length of time it took to play out from peak to trough:

(Source: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@lasseehlers/bitcoin-bitcoin-could-be-entering-a-long-term-bull-market-similar-to-november-2013-to-may-2015)

It took bitcoin roughly 500 days to bottom in early 2015 after peaking in late 2013. A total decline of over 80%.

However, it took bitcoin right around 300 days to drop by over 70%.

Check out a chart of the current price action overlayed to what happened in 2014:

(Source: https://www.ccn.com/2014-vs-2018-bitcoin-price-correction-this-year-will-likely-be-significantly-shorter/)

Comparing the charts you can see that the price action looks pretty similar, with one major difference...

The amount of time.

In that second chart seen above we can see that it took bitcoin over 300 days to decline by 70% in 2014 and it has taken roughly 200 days to decline by the same amount in 2018.

Which means that prices likely are moving faster now than they were in 2014.

Likely for the reasons stated above.

More people involved, more money involved, and much more notoriety/popularity.

The CEO of Bitmex agrees.

The CEO of Bitmex was on CNBC on Friday and he had similar thoughts.

Saying that he thinks the current correction is very similar to what happened in 2014 but he expects the correction to be shorter in duration for some of the reasons listed above.

Also interesting to note, Hayes said that $50k by end of 2018 is still not entirely out of the question.

“Absolutely BTC can reach $50,000 by 2018. I think that something that goes up to $20,000 in one year can have a correction down to $6,000 and will definitely find a bottom at about $3,000 and $5,000 range. We are one positive regulatory decision away, maybe an ETF approved by the SEC, to climbing through $20,000 and even to $50,000 by the end of 2018."

(Source: https://www.ccn.com/2014-vs-2018-bitcoin-price-correction-this-year-will-likely-be-significantly-shorter/)

There you have it, it's official.

The correction will be shorter than 2014, and we will hit $50k by the end of 2018. :)

Stay informed my friends.

Image Source:

https://medium.com/@favakrypt/the-end-of-crypto-winter-the-bear-market-of-2018-and-what-has-happened-to-bitcoin-and-altcoins-532d8ad6d828

Follow me: @jrcornel

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Thank you for your sharing

We need some Bulls to run!
🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂🐂

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The running of the bulls may be just beginning here.

I predicted last year, here and here that starting Feb of this year until Feb 2019 we would be in a bear market.

Using the same techniques, I think we could see sideways trading by early next year and even some significant spikes in price, but whatever spikes in price that come in 2019 will be vastly overshadowed by what starts to happen around the summer of 2020. I think the market will top off sometime in early 2021. If the technology is finally ready for mass adoption next time (without a scaling debate) then the price will continue to climb into the middle 2020's, but if not, another bear market will start around 2022 and last until 2024. This pattern will continue to repeat until mass adoption of crypto is achieved.

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Good calls! And you may be right, it will be interesting to see if bitcoin is still king at that point.

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Next Bitcoin block reward halving will be around May, 2020. Therefore, it is safe to say next At The High (ATH) will be around summer 2020. Can it happen it before? Why not, time scale is getting small as @jrcornel observed more attention, more people, more capital, more wildcards (ETFs).

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There could be new ATH's well above where we were last December sometime in 2019, but it will be nothing compared to what the price will be in the latter half of 2020. I think that the climate we saw start in spring 2017 in crypto will return summer of 2020 and fall of 2020 will be very similar to what happened to bitcoin after the split from BCH. Not sure though if it will be bitcoin, or some other crypto coming along to replace it as king.

I would agree that everything is moving a lot faster these days; BTC has gone from being a "thinly traded fringe security" to being something many people on the street are familiar with.

The thing I'm increasingly looking for is the point at which alt. coins start to detach from BTC... where "as Bitcoin goes, so goes the market" is no longer a reality.

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That may take some time still. I don't think that will happen until coins are listed on regular exchanges, where they all can be bought with fiat.

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You have some good point here which i did not think about so far , let's wait and see

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What do you think happens?

It's been quite a long time now :) I personally dont believe that it will go more than 20k by the end of 2018.

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My personal thoughts were about $20k-$25k by end of this year. To be honest now though, I am thinking somewhere around $15k might be more likely at this point.

The time intervals have become shorter in each case..!!

I also think that the way down can no longer go so deep.

The chance that the way up is going to be bigger for me.

I have long been convinced that the chance to go up is bigger than the chance that it goes down but please never Bitcoin is more than a one-day rate on the chart.!!!

How much Leder Nano S do you use 1 or 2?

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My thoughts exactly. Which would mean we are pretty close to a bottom now, both in terms of time and in terms of price. I'm a buyer at $6k.

@jrcorne In my opinion it is necessary to continue insisting, to know the market, clearly the virtual currencies are at a low moment, but I do not doubt that it will flourish again, because in the end it is the future of technology

@jrcornel Thank you for this amazing information. Graphs are great to get more clear understandings. Waiting for more articles from you.

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This looks familiar

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LOL @jrcornel.

I try to help these newer people.... they do not really listen or care for the most part but once in awhile, one of them actually replies and listens a bit.

Be well.

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Yea there are a lot of really good comments, and also a lot of spam. Which is to be expected when you can possibly earn money for it.

This all depends on when it recovers. If it rebounds, then goes right back down for a year, then it won't have moved faster, just gone down a larger percentage.

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This is very true, it only would count as moving faster if it breaks the down trend and then does not make a new low... ever. Ironically, bitcoin has never gone back to its lows in its entire trading history. It makes new highs, then higher lows each time.

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I'm actually surprised it went down this far. I thought the hype train would reverse it. But maybe the new investors aren't used the the news crapping on it every week.

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I am as well. I started buying again around $10k, like usual I was a bit early.

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I'm too annoyed with the fact that a few have been holding back BTC back technologically to invest in it right now. There are more coins than I have money to invest in and BTC isn't the only one that's down. If it actually goes up to $1m, maybe I'll regret that decision, but I highly doubt it will. But maybe it will reach $50k or even $75k, and I can still regret it. :P

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I would like to think bitcoin will make whatever technological upgrades it needs to stay on top, however, the lack of decentralization may end up being what makes necessary upgrades very difficult to actually implement in the end.

@jcornel
When bull will come , bear will soon run away.. never loose hope. Just sit down and relax..

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Who would win if a bull fought a bear?

We don't know if we hit the bottom unfortunately. I think also that nowadays everything moves faster around the market and we will see new ATHs by the end of the year.

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I think as well, though that looks pretty grim currently. It only took a few weeks last year for prices to go up like 5X, means 5 months is plenty of time.

prediction too high i guess

I think bitcoin will further go down for more information check this post https://steemit.com/mgsc/@yogesh.aggarwal/why-we-can-expect-crypto-will-go-down-further

On a technical level, I agree with both your points: the correction is on the same scale as 2014 (cycle level) and that it will in all likelihood complete much quicker.

I think there is a good chance that the RSI on the weekly chart will touch the 30 level before a trend reversal (if you're interested, more details are available here).

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I could see that as well. Thanks for the input.

Well, if it's official then I shall not give up hope then...

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Never give up hope.

Virtual currencies are very low, compared to other times, but from time to time they can rise, I do not lose my faith. Technology grows