Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis: Be Prepared,Retrace Incoming.
Price has seen a lot of growth the past 2 weeks gaining around 23% but can it be sustained?
TL;DR
- Price topping at top fib level.
- Price has retraced significantly previously after similar gains.
- Double volume needed to break and continue.
- Bitcoin Gold day will see profit saving and diversification.
- Possibility of Replay/Wipeout attack for 2 weeks after Segiwtx2 Activation.
- Retrace to $4910 forecast.
Bitcoin Long-term Price Analysis, February 2017 - October 2017, Price points $735- $6199
Here you can see the fib levels showing a previous climb beginning at 78.60% ($2024) building to the 23.60% ($4946) around a 60% climb, then retracing to the 40% level ($2917) before returning to upward mobility gaining 60% afterwards to current $5199 a 68% gain.
This pattern looks like it will repeat with a fall to 33.80% level of $4910,based on the very high RSI indicators price cannot be sustained at this level unless volume were to increase significantly to around $4 billion,this would be enough to sustain trend and go against the indicators shown in the chart.
Conclusion
Be prepared to sell bitcoin and save profits come Bitcoin Gold day circa BTC block 491407 Wednesday 25th October as the price of bitcoin looks to be topping and will need a retrace before continuing trend.
Retrace level at 24% of $4910
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OP Opinion
I think that there will be uncertainty and diversifying of Bitcoin into other cryptos on the day of the upcoming Bitcoin Gold fork due at BTC block 491407 around Wednesday 25th October(at time of writing) causing the creation of a new Bitcoin with different mining algorithms and consensus rules.
This should last 1-2 weeks so expect volatility during this period mostly to the downside after which we should see a short period of growth again before Segwit2x at block 494,784.
After this there will be a 2 week period where in which the risk of a wipeout and a replay attack exists.
Wipeout attack
When a software change in a hard fork doesn't have majority consensus(51%) at difficulty adjust(two weeks) will cause a merge of the changed fork and eliminate the minority chain.
Replay Attack
This is the risk of the same transaction occurring on both sides as competing chains move ahead and fall behind creating blocks there is no amount of confirmations that can protect against this scenario.
The end of November will see these uncertainty's alleviated with the difficulty adjust after the fork deciding the majority chain,which should see the start of the next major run which could lead to 40-50% gains again if trend is to be continued.
I hope this helps in your trading and would like to hear your thoughts on this.
Disclaimer
Trading is always risk and information contained is to help formulate plans always do your due diligence on research before entering any trade.
I too really appreciate your info. What wallet do you recommend for ease of claiming bitcoin gold. I missed the boat by not claiming my bitcoin cash immediately. Thanks again for this post
your welcome,
most wallets will do so long as the wallet has the user in full control of keys and not a third party.
here is a list from July of wallets where users have full control.
Source: bitsonline.com
What is Your Position?
Are you holding btc in your wallet? On exchanges? Are you planning on selling off some or a lot of BTC, when it reaches it's peak?
Do you See a Hardfork Coming
or do you believe we'll see a seamless change?
Honestly, I've been out of the game for at least a year. I appreciate you putting this information up. :)
holding in a wallet is the safest way to guarantee you will receive bitcoin gold of the correct amount on time .
I will sell most on the day bitcoin gold is released.
There are 2 hard forks coming one on Wednesday for bitcoin gold shouldn't cause too many issues as this is a permanent fork with wipeout and replay protection.
The second fork in November for Segwitx2 could cause some instability due to not having protection against wipeout and replay attacks but this is unlikely to happen only that it might effect price before the lock-in of consensus changes 2 weeks after.
Spot on. I made out when I sold my Bcash at $1300. Will do the same when Bitcoin gold hits.
Awesome Info
and I greatly appreciate it. :)
@isacoin I actually agree with pretty much everything here - I think people need to brace themselves for a period of volatility and I would be surprised to see Bitcoin take a massive hit.
Please let me know what you think of my latest episode of Crypto Nights on my blog - this week we discuss Tom Lee's valuation of Bitcoin.
Upvoted and followed.
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OMG! I do not sell my bitcoins even if I see them go down to $200! I might go for 3 or 4 new coins that are below $2 with new fiat money, but not with bitcoin. I agree that after Chritsmas, it might go down for consolidation, but everybody is expecting Bitcoin to go to $10,000. This last fork, Bitcoin Gold, did not do any big harm. Let's see what happens with the next one, which I think will double our bit coins.
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You really have to pay attention to who else is voting and how much just like any other bid bot.
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good