The probability of another downfall if...

in #bitcoin2 years ago

as I expected we have some corrections on bitcoin and ethereum prices from the lowest levels in Nov. though I still can't see any change in the trend and this may not last too long.


but before we get in to new charts, let's discuss these important points:

  1. I do not claim to be a professional trader, an always right guy, a jack of all and expert in everything etc
    I have traded for last two decades, stock markets, forex, commodities and now crypto added.
    I have more experience in commodities and mutual funds, but over all these years I have been profitable by the average. ofcourse I have had many lost trades, but the overall performance was positive for me.
  2. if you don't like a post, or you just don't understand why the author has such feeling about the market etc, you just need to leave a 👎 and continue reading, probably better articles and posts are there!
    don't get in to arguements and try to humiliate the writer! no one is perfect.
  3. all my posts are my understanding of possible probabilities these are not facts, financial advise or trading signals. no one pays me to write these! you should read as much as you can, then evaluate and trade on your own responsibility.

now let's see these charts:


botcoin touched the support level $3516 twice in a week. bitcoin has shown before it can test a support level 4-5 times without breaking it, so finally it did.

BUT THE PROBABILITY of getting under a support level which is tested twice, is high at the third attempt.

it's the same story with ethereum:


Ethereum touched 99$ level twice.

now let's see if such break happens, what would be next support levels?


For BTC, the current price level is a Weekly Fibo Pivot level, the downside we have the $3618 which is closely to support level touched (as mentioned above) and then:

For ETH, below 100$ support level we will expect fibo S2 and S3 on a weekly chart:

can we measure the risk of getting below these tested support levels? (100$ for eth and 3500 for btc)

I don't know. but I appreciate if you have any information on this, please drop me a line below.


hi @honarparvar

I've heard few times people saying "remember remember, the moon in november"?

I think many investors were holding to their cryptos in strong believe to have short bull run at the end of the year.

This believe and spirit seem to be completly broken now. I cannot see where buying power would be coming from in current martket conditions and personally I expect BTC dropping below last support level (3500).

Let's face it. 2017 has been great because mass media brought tons of uneducated investors into this market. Gread and lack of knowledge were something very common. People were joinin cryptospace happily without even thinking of regulations and paying taxes etc.

This all changed and trust has been broken. It's not going to get any better until this trust will recover and lack of regulations isn't really helping.

Currently we're neither here or there. Im personally investing only in STEEM knowing that tax office will not go after me one day. Because I never plan to sell my own STEEM and make profit. Im staying away from anything else for that simple reason.

Sentiments are awful. I hope that STO (security token offerings) will bring more trust into this market in 2019

In meantime many experts expect global economy to go through serious challenges within a year or two (some people expect another huge crisis). That also isnt helping crypto at all.

Thx for your post buddy
Good read

great comment 👍 i agree with all you said

I also think it is another bull trap lol im not saying anything until i see consistant growth for atleast 2 months

or an elliot wave #4 correction? 😏

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I hope the next bull run starts soon..

I'm not sure if it'll be soon 😒

This information is very interesting :o What would there be to say to people predicting a 2018 close with Bitcoin exceeding 100k $?

tell them let's live in reality... by logic not a punch in to your face!

There's another chance of a downfall, I believe Bitcoin it's going to hit the level of 2600$ and ETH 88$, I don't know when but something is for sure, we haven't seen the capitulation candle yet.

it seems you see a better future for eth:

88 ÷ 2600 = 0.033

yeah second to you, even with the double bottom pattern completion. still possible to go sideway downwards and maybe till new lows 3000+ then 2700 or even 1500 if it repeat the previous bear market avg % loss.

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May be. Thanks for this article.

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