Bitcoin HODLers capitulation ahead
Capitulation is a good thing. let me say it at the very beginning, and here is my reasons:
nobody can move against the market's momentum. so when a solid trend like nowadays' figures, the potential energy in the trend move should release totally, so a trend reversal gets possibility to start.
it's for both cases: bulls or bears. they both need to fully release their potential energy.
So, the support levels are just playing the role of testing the strength of that momentum.
current supports
we have tested the latest support level, which was a strong one also, recently: 3150 USD
though it hasn't managed to break that level yet, I believe the momentum of the bearish trend is strong enough to retest and break it.
Then we will have the mental support level of 3000 USD or 4000 CAD, if you trade on CAD, like me.
for those who may wonder how these equals should be treated, I personally believe every market has its own mentality, so the CAD market tends to its own users. but if I am in a FOMO, I may consider the exchange equal to the USD level, which in this case is roughly 4015 CAD.
is that the bottom line?
Now we come to capitulation issue!
no, it is not the bottom line I think. the bottom line is when real capitulation happen. it means who have bought bitcoin in high rates of 2018 early months, those who believed they will hold their coins forever, lose their trust and belief in bitcoin and get frustrated.
as they start the sell off, the momentum will change smoothly from a bear market in to a bull market. is this certain? no! it's just PROBABILITY! like always, markets are about probability not certainty.
with probability comes risk, measurable risk. and that's when a money management skill and expertise can help any trader.
I will write my opinion on next moves of bitcoin as it moves on, but I have to repeat: these are not financial advice, but just my thoughts, made loud to hear back from my network and learn from you.
good luck 👍
I am very interested to see where the bottom of this BTC market will turn out to be, and it is interesting to watch it every day and see how things progress.
In my opinion, the main problems with predicting crypto markets are the following:
Crypto exchanges are currently operating on a derivative-based, FAKE, system that is not how BlockChain was intended to be working. The good idea of BlockChain has been perverted, hidden from the understanding of the average person, and the exchanges are trading WAY more volume each day in derivatives than they are in actual keys of real coins and tokens. So, the crypto markets are just as bad for predicting, and just as fake as any stock market in existence today. They are a very manipulated asset class.
The Market Cap is so small, compared to other asset classes, that this current crop of cryptos can only be called an "experiement." One bank could upset everything by quadrupling the current market cap with one days' worth of investing - if they found a big enough whale to sell them $400 Billion in tokens. Look at how bad Mt. Gox messed-up everything, and they were only dealing with, what? $40 Million - $50 Million in BTC (or was it Billions?) The point is, volatility blows chart "trends" out of the water on a regular basis, which significantly decreases the ability of Technical Analysis to be of much use here. The daily crypto-news cycle seems to have just as much, or more effect on the crypto markets than the current pool of day-traders can manage.
ofcourse a 10 year period of time is just an experiment comparing to humans financial history. assets and commodities like gold and silver have a history of 4000 years.
but it seems even this strongly manipulated market tends to some patterns, doesn't it?
and still the idea, sounds so interesting to financial freedom lovers! 😐
It's true that the crypto charts generally do seem to follow typical market patterns. You can always look backwards in the market and identify what happened, in hindsight. That doesn't mean cryptos are immune to manipulation. In fact, I think these generally accepted patterns are simply a tool that "the powers that be" use to set most traders up for wealth transfer - away from the majority and to the few wealthy. I'm sure that it's actually pretty easy to manipulate the psychology of large groups of crypto traders into panic buying and panic selling - or FOMO and FUD, which are used by exchanges to milk profits out of the markets. Exchange operators have access to a much better, more accurate set of data and electronic trading bots - so they know where everyone has placed their longs and shorts, where the automatic selling and buying will take place, etc. Then, they simply have to move enough coins, place spoof orders, etc. and they can do massive short squeezes, which is what I've seen done in the crypto markets on many occasions so far. I think it is very dangerous for people to be placing short or long postions on the current exchanges, because it provides exchange owners with the information they need to transfer that money into their own pockets. The almost total lack of regulation on crypto exchanges makes it even more dangerous for the average crypto trader. That said, it IS possible for day-traders, swing-traders, and HODLers to make money - but they have got to be watching the crypto markets like a hawk, and they have got to have a very good system and an unusually good grasp of trading concepts in order not to lose their shirts - especially in a bear market. It's easy to make a $#!t-ton of money in cryptos when it's in a bull market. But that only has the effect of making the average trader feel like he's a market tycoon - but, clearly, he is not.
I think the ONLY way for BlockChain technology and CryptoCurrency to actually provide a path to true "financial freedom" is for not only the nodes to be truly "decentralized," but for the actual tokens/coins to be widely dispersed - where you don't have 5% of the token-holders possessing 1/2 of the total number of coins. It seems that almost every crypto in existence is still mainly held by a very small number of addresses. I'm not sure of the actual distrubution of the BTC tokens, but I am pretty sure there are just a few players at the very top who hold the vast majority of the BTC wealth - which makes most of the crypto marketplace subject to their whims and manipulations. Because of that, I do not believe that BitCoin is this great and wonderful new engine that's going to create "financial freedom" for all.
This is my first time seeing one of your posts. Followed. I am trying to follow anyone who posts quality original crypto content on steemit and it looks like that you're doing that so keep up the good work. It is hard to say when the bull market will start to break out but its good to see peoples opinions on it because ultimately we are the ones who decides what happens, sort of like a democracy. The markets are extremely negative right now and you are likely to get downvoted just for talking positive about crypto or bitcoin on reddit. It's crazy to me. It is also proof of how hard some people are trying to crash the price which means that there are people out there who want to buy in at lower levels. Which is for me, actually a bullish sign.
hi, thanks for comment and follow, I'll follow you back. this is the greatest thing steemit brought to us: networking.
i agree with you. we are shaping the market, all of us, with our weights and moves. as you may have noticed, steemit is very different than reddit. maybe it's because ppl here are opted in to crypto, more than ppl on reddit! or maybe it's like a capitalism democracy! 😉
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If you're still in a long and planning to hold it think about taking a hedge short or at least taking profit at the 3830/3843 level. We're approaching a significant daily resistance.
this is exactly what i have done 👍
We will know when the bottom is in after the bottom is in... if there is a bottom.... right? lol
no one knows for sure before it happens!! that's the truth! but all of us can express our sentiments, right? 😀
mine is we are not facing it in 2018, and not before another level below $3000
what is your sentiment?
I agree. 2018 is basically over and I think the sell off continues until it does not. The more oversold the better.
thanks for sharing your comments 👍🙇♂️
I want to know your suggestion for this trading competition. I want to participate here but i don't want to lose my money again..
https://www.kucoin.com/#/rank/KAT
i prefer to ask you stop spamming
Hodlers you need to be really really patience if you want to have some profits in investing here in crypto, some hodlers took 5years after they sold their investments. Just like me i joined trading competition in ONOT. I hope onot will help me to gain some investments, coz if not? i will sell everything i have and never invest again.
https://twitter.com/KuCoinUpdates/status/1072432131689861120
thanks for commenting, but I consider this spam
speaking of btc there is a lot of new projects that desiring to be at least on the top 5 after btc. Do you think that their trading events like on kat will help them to be on the top?
nothing is forever, others can take the first seed from btc, but it takes real usability not only marketing events
They already distributed the rewards for DAI trading competition, do you think it's really worth it that they bought dai? https://news.kucoin.com/en/dai-campaign-rewards-distributed/