RE: Bitcoin HODLers capitulation ahead
I am very interested to see where the bottom of this BTC market will turn out to be, and it is interesting to watch it every day and see how things progress.
In my opinion, the main problems with predicting crypto markets are the following:
Crypto exchanges are currently operating on a derivative-based, FAKE, system that is not how BlockChain was intended to be working. The good idea of BlockChain has been perverted, hidden from the understanding of the average person, and the exchanges are trading WAY more volume each day in derivatives than they are in actual keys of real coins and tokens. So, the crypto markets are just as bad for predicting, and just as fake as any stock market in existence today. They are a very manipulated asset class.
The Market Cap is so small, compared to other asset classes, that this current crop of cryptos can only be called an "experiement." One bank could upset everything by quadrupling the current market cap with one days' worth of investing - if they found a big enough whale to sell them $400 Billion in tokens. Look at how bad Mt. Gox messed-up everything, and they were only dealing with, what? $40 Million - $50 Million in BTC (or was it Billions?) The point is, volatility blows chart "trends" out of the water on a regular basis, which significantly decreases the ability of Technical Analysis to be of much use here. The daily crypto-news cycle seems to have just as much, or more effect on the crypto markets than the current pool of day-traders can manage.
ofcourse a 10 year period of time is just an experiment comparing to humans financial history. assets and commodities like gold and silver have a history of 4000 years.
but it seems even this strongly manipulated market tends to some patterns, doesn't it?
and still the idea, sounds so interesting to financial freedom lovers! 😐
It's true that the crypto charts generally do seem to follow typical market patterns. You can always look backwards in the market and identify what happened, in hindsight. That doesn't mean cryptos are immune to manipulation. In fact, I think these generally accepted patterns are simply a tool that "the powers that be" use to set most traders up for wealth transfer - away from the majority and to the few wealthy. I'm sure that it's actually pretty easy to manipulate the psychology of large groups of crypto traders into panic buying and panic selling - or FOMO and FUD, which are used by exchanges to milk profits out of the markets. Exchange operators have access to a much better, more accurate set of data and electronic trading bots - so they know where everyone has placed their longs and shorts, where the automatic selling and buying will take place, etc. Then, they simply have to move enough coins, place spoof orders, etc. and they can do massive short squeezes, which is what I've seen done in the crypto markets on many occasions so far. I think it is very dangerous for people to be placing short or long postions on the current exchanges, because it provides exchange owners with the information they need to transfer that money into their own pockets. The almost total lack of regulation on crypto exchanges makes it even more dangerous for the average crypto trader. That said, it IS possible for day-traders, swing-traders, and HODLers to make money - but they have got to be watching the crypto markets like a hawk, and they have got to have a very good system and an unusually good grasp of trading concepts in order not to lose their shirts - especially in a bear market. It's easy to make a $#!t-ton of money in cryptos when it's in a bull market. But that only has the effect of making the average trader feel like he's a market tycoon - but, clearly, he is not.
I think the ONLY way for BlockChain technology and CryptoCurrency to actually provide a path to true "financial freedom" is for not only the nodes to be truly "decentralized," but for the actual tokens/coins to be widely dispersed - where you don't have 5% of the token-holders possessing 1/2 of the total number of coins. It seems that almost every crypto in existence is still mainly held by a very small number of addresses. I'm not sure of the actual distrubution of the BTC tokens, but I am pretty sure there are just a few players at the very top who hold the vast majority of the BTC wealth - which makes most of the crypto marketplace subject to their whims and manipulations. Because of that, I do not believe that BitCoin is this great and wonderful new engine that's going to create "financial freedom" for all.