Bitcoin - Possible ABC Correction?
Bitcoin ABC Correction? Some Predictions.
AKA this could backfire spectacularly!
This post is purely speculative and is based on my current knowledge of Elliott Wave theory. It could be entirely wrong, but I'm putting it out there to see how it plays out.
If it goes well? Great! I might actually be doing something right.
If it goes wrong? Hey ho! More work to be done.
Elliott Waves
I've been reading a few books on EW theory (reviews to come) and also watch videos by @haejin and other "Elliotticians" on places like YouTube to better understand how it works.
The most common pattern is a set of 5 waves - called impulse waves - followed by an A-B-C correction.
On my chart, the 1,2,3,4, and 5 of the impulse set have been completed. And we should now be in an A-B-C correction pattern.
Here is my guess of where that ABC correction will leave us:
Around $11,000 could be where this Elliott Wave cycle leaves us, and a new upward pattern could come into play.
Why?
Trend line Broken
When a trend-line is broken, it often becomes resistance. The previous short term trend line, which gave us the most recent rally, has been broken and will likely now act as a resistance point.
It also happens to intersect right around a key Fibonacci level.
The reverse is also true for the line marked "Major Support", this line was acting as long term resistance until recently. Now it has been broken, it should provide us with a key support level.
Bullish MACD
The MACD is currently bullish, meaning further upside is to be expected, but I don't believe there will be enough bullish sentiment to push us back through the resistance line.
But! The daily MACD is still showing as bearish:
And lastly; The RSI on the weekly chart still shows signs of being overbought:
Ignore the "oversold bounce" I forgot to delete it when switching time frames.
Always Remember
This is just a prediction by someone learning technical analysis.
We could just as easily see China do a full 180 and see prices surge to $20,000+ as we are likely to see a return to $11,000 or even $10,000 again. But we shall see!
Also remember:
- This is not financial or investment advice.
- Never invest more than you would spend on shoes, and lastly:
- Remember to take profits!
Very good EW post dude! I'm aligned with your forecast as well, though 10000 USD as the bottom...I have put my buying orders around...will see
Keep working!
Thank you very much! :-) Yeah, I think $10,000 might be possible too...
I'm also wondering if the .786 level may come into play? I think it will if that support line gets broken ($8650ish). $9350 seems like a very weak support level too.
It's certainly interesting to watch! Will keep at it for sure.
.786 fib level is in probabilistic terms much more difficult I guess but, it may happen... everything is possible, nevertheless it would be an amazing entry point ;-)
We have to wait and see
Yeah, it's probably a long shot.
Interestingly Mike Novogratz said $8000 could be in play: https://news.bitcoin.com/michael-novogratz-bitcoin-may-dip-to-8k-puts-crypto-hedge-fund-on-hiatus/
A friend of mine told me the article is a little out-of-whack, he didn't say "It's going to $8000" or anything like that. But that was his lowest guess. So a bit of "fake news" in the article. :-)
There are many possibilities and discernments, maybe we are just wrong, we try to anticipate next step and decision taking, that's all...
Trust in yourself, at least you are interested on learning about so, be confident.
What your and mine studies show is that it would be a very interesting opportunity to buy (or maybe not) so, place your partial buying orders according to each level, i.e. 20% at 10K, 25% at 9.5K , 30% at 9K and, why not, 50% or so at 8K ;-)... something like that, if we are wrong, perfect, if we reach some of the levels, perfect as well!!!
Yep! We can easily be reading it wrong. Even being close to right can be lucrative though. :-)
I love that method of buying on the way down! Unless it was an actual crash off course (which it probably isn't).
We'll see where it goes! I made an updated post today showing that my bounce for the target was wrong, so where I think the bottom might be probably is too haha!
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@toofasteddie/bitcoin-pay-attention-the-correction-is-not-finished-yet
Very interesting post! I haven't tried deeper level of EW out yet. Maybe in my next one. :-)
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There is continuation of your thoughts. Excellent analysis.
Organise a TAF guys alliance, A list of people in Technical analysis of crypto currencies.
Read more here.
Upvoted and followed you!
Thank you very much @tombort!
That post you've made is awesome, bringing all the TA posts into one to see where the consensus is is a great idea!
Upvoted your post, and followed you too.
TAF rocks!!
I did a BTC transaction and it took 4 days to arrive. 4 FUCKING DAYS. This cannot be the future. That cannot be providence. We will have our vengeance. Steemit will prevail. Ok just kidding with the providence and vengeance, Netflix is playing in the background and the suspenseful music made me write something dramatic lol. But seriously Steem is the future!
Bitcoin is the 90's pager. Steem is the Smartphone! EOS is the facking supercomputer! What do you think?
Yeah, it's far from fast at the moment. I saw 200000K+ transactions pending the other day. (Haven't checked that lately), it needs to scale that's for sure.
I loved the drama! Haha.
I think EOS could very much could be the future! Especially if BitShares and Steemit are anything to go by. But I'm diversifying the portfolio just in case. :-)
Selling in a ABC correction at approx -30% sounds reasonable.
It can be very profitable. (If you get it right of course ;-) ).
I wouldn't trust my charting yet!
Awsome post dude.
perfect analysis