Bitcoin falling!!! 😲💰

Which was always anticipated by me and this blog. 🤷‍♂️

I'm not a wizard or anything. It's just, if it didn't drop to something wildly low, then this would be the first time that happened. The first time btc had an epic runup and did not correct back to the territory of its old floor.

(There's a first time for everything, but odds were against it.)

It's just hard to hold after going parabolic. It needs to reconnect with its longer-term growth rate.

So the height it got to was never important. I believe the base it had previously is what matters, in terms of where it's likely to fall to.

To me it's starting to get low enough where we can hope the bleeding is done, but still it likely isn't.

It depends what you're regarding as its old floor, from before the spike. It might be right to view it as pushing off of $500, which would suggest it can fall to $1000. Or if it's pushing off $1000, then to $2000.

I'd basically expect it to go under $3000 with some range of possibility of $1000.

It doesn't matter tho. No way to predict the bottom.

If I was a buyer I'd maybe feel better about predicting the time to buy rather than the price to buy at. I'd go with maybe later 2019. But of course that's a wild guess too. "Averaging in" over all of 2019 probably can't be that bad.

Maybe some chance you'll be early, but that's better than being late.

Disclaimer

I'm not a professional investment person. So I might be wrong but I might be wildly right too.

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It hung up there above $6K for a while, maybe because of the theory some people had that the mining cost would somehow dictate a floor on the value. 🙄🙄 And then perception of that being true can create its own prophecy and hold it there for a minute, and now that it cracked the floodgates are open.

But obviously "what it costs to produce something" doesn't guarantee someone will be willing to pay that.

What happens is miners who flirt with no longer being profitable turn off their rigs as price goes down. And then with less mouths in the mix, mining is easier for those who remain, and so it equilibriums like that.

The cost of mining is fluid and adjusts around the price, rather than the cost is fixed and somehow the price can't ever go lower than that.

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Meh

It's annoying when it goes down, but it also feels oddly satisfying to me in some ways. Like if you know a slap is coming it would feel good to just get it.

I love the chart so much!!!

Like, looking at that I really do feel like it has a fair bit lower to drop still.

But that just screams epic bullish buy me!!! to me long-term.

It's revving up.

I guess it can be something of a Rorschach sort of thing, where my view of the chart is colored by fundamentally having a belief about what Bitcoin is and what role it will have in the world.

That little blip you see above Dec 13, if you were to zoom in on it, basically looks exactly like the big blip you see above Dec 17.

And then there's 2 more of those in years prior.

boomp-bop-boomp-bop It's like it bounces off of an upward tilting slope, basically.

And if you can get some as it reconnects with its longer-term price pattern, you'll be a princess when it tilts up to the sky.

When the dust settles and the books are written, I think this will all be understood as the natural rhythm of price discovery for something so radical. For the next paradigm of money.

The chance that Bitcoin pitters out or doesn't become epic

I think mostly has to do with an unforeseen black swan type of dynamic.

Like i.e. money just becomes less important, perhaps because it's easier to track reputation and everything is more locally sustainable anyways and made by the robots and stuff. (But in that case the world is wonderful, so you're happy to take the L.)

Or, some unforeseen technical issue. Where we go on to use something like Bitcoin, but Bitcoin itself has some flaw that hasn't been identified yet. (This becomes less likely the longer it goes without breaking. But always possible.)

Nothing is 100%, and I think it's good to remember that it's unchartered territory. But the upside is so disparate where you just shouldn't worry about it or overthink it imo.

In the current order of things, where Bitcoin continues to technically work as we expect it to, I'm willing to say that it's just inevitable that it replaces centrally managed currency.

Bitcoin world

It's not even really a next-level, anarchic, no more nation states sort of thing. (Eventually. But Bitcoin can be major long before that.)

The reasons why we like Bitcoin and believe it protects us can extend to how countries feel about other countries.

For example the US government has nukes and a big army and the global reserve commonly used currency. China is big and scary too and they could start to have the reserve currency (plus they could be in cahoots with the US, in various ways). And having control of the goose that lays golden eggs gives them power and advantages over other countries.

If you're not the one wielding the sword, you'd rather there just wasn't a sword.

There could come a point where governments of countries decide that they'd be better off if everyone was on some fair and trustless grid of money.

Because the belief in fiat helps some countries more than others.

It's murky for the ruling classes of smaller countries. Because using Bitcoin rather than their own fiat would give them less advantage over their own citizens. But best for the citizens. And probably best for the ruling classes too, long-term, to be able to be more even with other rulers.

And a country adopting Bitcoin in a mainstream way doesn't need to be any more complicated than holding some reserve amount of BTC. And then each dollar is redeemable for X amount of BTC. And the dollars stay circulating, and people who don't know or care won't experience any kind of difference. They don't need to know that under the hood math has replaced bankers and why the wars are stopping.

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Most likely, high level intelligence recognizes that this is the trend and have their various strategies. Probably with dramatic deals and arrangements and collusions and this and that and it would be fun to know but we can't 😑😑😑