[BTC/USD Long-term view] - Bitcoin is far from dead!

in bitcoin •  11 months ago  (edited)

The other day was talking with a friend which I meet in a crypto meetup and I exposed to him a few of my concerns. Not only about the tech about project A or B.

More about the price. The thing that can make or break us. Also I considered their opinion very relevant for me, given the fact that he's not a 'very BIG whale' but definitively someone with deep pockets in crypto (6 digit-range bags).

His answer was pretty clear and straight forward:

''I'm very relaxed accumulating. I sleep well at night. Without any doubt I lost a big chunk of 'USD value', but this slow period is giving me more than enough time to accumulate loads of the bags of the projects that I love.''

And showed me this chart (which I modified a little to explain a couple of interesting things).

BTCUSD monthly.png

From this chart we can conclude a few things:

-Despite of the destructive behaviour from the last months, the long-term trend (showing us the way since 2011) remains INTACT.

-In both cases we have a descending volume and prolonged sideways period. Seems that the second one is (by far) accelerated.

-The most relevant scenario to compare the recent price action is the bear market which started in December '13 and ended with the breakout of Oct '15. This cooldown needed 22 long (and painful) months before the next bull rally.


If we use a lens (from 1M to 1S period) to further analyze the sideways action of the prize, we can also extract even more relevant information (pay att. to the accumulation periods in boxes):

BTCUSD weekly.png

Even more if we focus in both of the bearish & sideways scenarios:

1st bear sideways.png

2ond bear sideways.png

-The sideways period will naturally (as it has been doing lately) chop heads of both bull/bear margin traders. Every retracement is sweeping away big chunks of money from impatient & overleveraged hands.

-I expect it, but as always regarding trading we talk about probabilities. I don't discard a flash crash into the 5700$'s to (once again) sweep away stop loss orders and enforce a cascade of panic-sellers before the 'real' recovery.

Remember that THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN, so dont bet blindly and don't 100% expect another leg down.

-As it should happen naturally, a higher high and a lower low are required to confirm a reversal. I see the 7300$ and later the 8700$ as key resistance levels.

-I also have to say that if (for whatever reason) the 5700-6000$ fails to hold, it will become a MASSIVE resistance to break later on.

Disclaimer: As always; not financial advice.


Keep yourself strong and focused.

ferran.jpg

Follow me on Instagram and Twitter

Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post.
If you enjoyed what you read here, create your account today and start earning FREE STEEM!
Sort Order:  

Bitcoin is now involve in gambling. Only gambler can predict the next price of Bitcoin.

Don't think so.

Gamble would be to take a mortage at 20K to invest.

Creo que tienes toda la razón de hecho estaba ya preocupado por ti.. y algunos de los anucios que estabas publicando en Twitter en fin.

Me alegra mucho volverte a ver de nuevo creando contenido en steemit.

Hola @th3nolo :)

No sabía que me tenías/teníais tan vigilados! No eres la primera persona que me comenta algo así.
Es posible que me haya distanciado durante una temporada, pero nunca he dejado de pasarme por aquí (aunque sea con menos frecuencia). Podríamos decir que he estado hibernando jeje.

Te agradezco mucho tu apoyo y feedback :)

PD: que anuncios he estado publicando en twitter? :/

Great Chart just saw this same chart last night and this confirms it. Long term pattern is really what we want to work with!

100% agree. Glad that you enjoyed the post :)

Despite of the destructive behaviour from the last months, the long-term trend (showing us the way since 2011) remains INTACT.

It takes a lot of hope and long-term perspective to go through this period. I also doubt technical analysis a lot lately... a whole lot of variables affecting the market and we can't tell what timeframe to trust. Have you heard about Digitex Futures exchange? I would like you to check them out. They are a zero fee futures trading platform, I think this one opportunity to play with in the face of a bearish market. They will be launching by the end of this year and currently have their token on sales.

I'll take a look at Digitex later :)

Thanks!

The resistance levels are bound to rise. I am already investing a lot. Let's just hope for the AMAZING :)

Best of luck mate :)

Thanks

Hi @fcalabuig!

Your post was upvoted by @steem-ua, new Steem dApp, using UserAuthority for algorithmic post curation!
Your UA account score is currently 2.020 which ranks you at #24038 across all Steem accounts.
Your rank has improved 842 places in the last three days (old rank 24880).

In our last Algorithmic Curation Round, consisting of 271 contributions, your post is ranked at #108.

Evaluation of your UA score:
  • Only a few people are following you, try to convince more people with good work.
  • The readers appreciate your great work!
  • Try to improve on your user engagement! The more interesting interaction in the comments of your post, the better!

Feel free to join our @steem-ua Discord server

Bitcoin is dead ?who think like that lol

When I explain people that I'm deeply involved with cryptocurrencies and I try to explain Bitcoin a lot of people says something like: '' isn't that dead?'' or ''Isn't it a ponzi?''.

A lot of these people will FOMO in at 50K.

just chill my man...haters be hating whatever its happening cause they don't understand and can't get the taste of it ...no need to explain to them ...waste of your time bruh

I guess that's not a waste of time at all :)

As soon as they get used to cryptocurrencies, they will be able to adapt faster to all the upcoming changes.

Regards!

No offence bro it's a great thing to know that people like you sharing knowledge to others it helps the community a lot and i respect that.

Well end of the day they will find out that they need crypto more than they know ,that is what i believe

Congratulations @fcalabuig! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

Award for the number of comments received

Click on the badge to view your Board of Honor.
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word STOP

Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:

Presentamos el Ranking de SteemitBoard
Introducing SteemitBoard Ranking

Support SteemitBoard's project! Vote for its witness and get one more award!

I think sleeping nicely depends on the fact that everybody must understand quickly that a digital era is before the door of our financial system. Bitcoin and altcoins are coming and only God can reverse this process. (I DO NOT THİNK HE İNTERVENES..)

100% agree with you. Will take some time, but definitively it's coming :)