BITCOIN: The 200 Day Moving Average (200DMA) and the three Market Cycles

in #bitcoin2 years ago (edited)

Logarithmic Scale is a good tool for long term analysis. Using it you can easily identify in which moment of the market cycle we are .
In the case of BITCOIN, if we apply the logarithmic scale on the daily chart we can identify 3 BIG BEARS MARKETS in all its history. Actually I am using the recorded data of BTC/USD pair corresponding to the BITSTAMP , one of the oldest Exchanges.

Impressive, isn't it?
3 Bull cycles (5-waves) and their corresponding corrections, the last one on going...

The more evident BEAR Market, the second, came after a BULL RUN which finished by the end of 2013. The correction was very long, more than 20 months, finishing by September 2015.
Since then, BITCOIN price grown continuously till the end of last year when the 3rd BEAR MARKET started...

How can we identify the end of the BEAR Market?

Seems that the 200 days Moving Average is a good tool for that:

When the 200DMA crosses from above the price line, that is a good signal for determining the end of the BEAR MARKET:

Currently the 200dMA is acting as our Resistance line...seems that BTC is very close but remember that the timeframe is big here... Prolonging the lines we may see that CROSS perhaps in very short time...



*Disclaimer: This is just my personal point of view, please, do your own assessment and act consequently.
Neither this post nor myself is responsible of any of your profit/losses obtained as a result of this information.

Published on
by toofasteddie


Interesting to see how the trading range has been compressed signaling a new move... From a fundamentals perspective, I think it also demonstrates some balance in the demand and supply of the asset which is making market for price. Could we have just found an equilibrium on value = price?

I don't think so... the market is still so small, there are a lot of margin for growing and BITCOIN is the channel for buying other altcoins...This is just temporal

Great point! Makes sense!

I believe you meant when the price crosses above 200DMA.
Nice analysis.

well, it is the same, 200dMA crosses FROM above the price line (desde encima)... I missed "FROM"

@toofasteddie, it was interesting to read. I will still not express my opinion on this analysis of BTCUSD based on 200 MA.
I've been trading FX for the last 12+ years and I've been using many different MAs, including the 200 MA on a daily timeframe (D1). But I still don't know if I am going to use 200 MA on D1 for BTCUSD analyses. 200 MA represents sequence of 3 quarters (from a fundamental point of view). For the FX market it is very important period of time. You can evaluate if the economy is growing, stagnating or going into recession. But 200 MA=sequence of 3 quarters I don't think that it represents something important for the crypto, because it is completely different economy. But, I may not be right. But, up to now I still haven't used 200 MA in my BTCUSD analyses.
Anyway, thank you for the analysis. It's very well articulated and easy to read.

Glad you like it...


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Am still hoping but I must say that predictions this year from most analysts have been way off

very interesting how a different couple of eyes can make a analysis and provide value from different points of reference.

Hope you enjoyed my post and also that you're doing well (have been a bit disconnected lately).


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