Bitcoin TA - summary of analysts - 07. August 18
Regular daily update on BTC ta analysts opinions.
**My summary - short-term (next 24h) sentiment: neutral ** (last: bearish)
We are hovering around 7'000.
Lower level Momentum indicators show that bears loosing strength at the moment
Higher level Momentum indicator building up bearish signs.
It seems next move is more likely to go up or if down than not too far (above 6'500) and from there going up for at least a dead cat bounce.
Very intense time ...
I guess you need to make a stance: Are you a bull? This is where you need to scale in. Are you a Bear? You need to double down on your shorts.
- It seems in the war of the bears and bulls we are entering another battle: Can the bulls create enough FOMO to create distance to the lows and overcome major resistance levels? If so we are not going to see the current levels for a long time.
- Or do the bears lead the bulls into a trap and than smashing hard to the downside. That would create a lot of frustration and might lead to the capitulation which you would expect to be necessary to call the bear market over.
- This down move is "only" wave 2 turning back up above 6'700.
- That confirms a higher low.
- In the following wave 3 we go higher than last swing high to around 9'100 area.
- Volume needs to increase.
- We dropped from the death cross which confirms lower high - very bearish.
- after putting in a first low we see at dead cat bounce which stays below 7'600.
- from there we are going down significantly.
- After breaking 5'800 a significant drop towards new lows in the range of 4'975 and 4'300.
*scenarios based on daily-candles - so around 4-14 days timeframe. See also definition section
Summary of targets/support/resistance of TAs
mid- and long-term overview
- please refer to definition section for time-horizon.
- be aware that mid- and long-term is mostly my interpretation of what analysts sentiment is as they not always clearly differentiate those time-frames. To interpret that consistently is very hard so please be kind with my interpretation.
- you can easily spot which analyst did an update
(block writing - grey ones don't have an update today).
Their changes are in light blue.
Last high: July 2014 at 185.7
December 2017: 91.8
July 2018: 177.9
So the NVT is moving up to extreme levels. For those believing in this ratio this is seen as an sign of bitcoin being strongly overvalued.
July was a rather decent month with +20% up - not correlating with July of other years.
August seems to be another mixed bag - lets see how it turns out.
News about the blog
- Added NVT ratio from - if you are not familiar with it see definition section below.
- Forflies: I added him not knowing him too well - that is why his logo is in grey box - meaning under evaluation.
Analysts key statements:
Monthly: We got rejected by monthly down trend. He is expecting much lower prices. This trendline was strong indicator in last bear cycle.
Weekly: He sees triangle rejection and death cross rejection which reversed us. He sees us to maybe bounce from 6'500 up to 7'500 before we finally break down maybe in mid of September.
Weekly MACD did not cross over and probably is going down further.
Daily. CMF is crossing into negative area. Which is bad. The last time that happened we saw signifiant further lows. TD is on 7 of 9 - it might be we see a short term bounce up.
@lordoftruth (slightly bullish):
Bitcoin price hangs around the area of interest around 6'800 ( daily Fib support ) and 7'000, and resumes its bearish bias within the bearish channel, supported by EMA50, trying to test the 6'500 area.
RSI show that sellers are taking a break but buyers are struggling to get back on their feet, while Stochastic indicate that buyers are taking over.
Most likely the price will test 7'200 area and this rise will be followed by a decline towards 6'800 - 7'000 zone again before testing 7'500.
Where we should get chance to go short with another large leg down as the below 4H chart.
Todays trend is bearish. Trading between 6'500 and 7'500.
Don't panic. If this alternate count is true, this is an expected panic sell, but there is no need for panic at all. At least not yet.
My primary count will be invalidated @ 6790 though. But this count will not be invalidated until 5777 breaks.
If it bounces @ 6825, 6666 or 6400 (or somewhere in the middle of that), then white wave 1 and 2 are already in! This panic sell fits the character of a wave 2 correction, fast and deep.
The next levels to watch for a big bounce are 6825, 6666 and 6400... If this is indeed already white wave 2, then white wave 3 is next! Target at least 10800, but potentially much higher.
Bulls need to turn this price action around – turn it upside down, as it were. The market is getting sufficiently oversold whereby we may just get a turn-around in the not too distant future. Where such a turn-around may lead longer term is still up for grabs. Oh yeah, one more thing I forgot to highlight, - we got a weekly sell signal on Sunday night too...
Aug is a turn month (+/-1) - we might see a low in Aug or Sept starting off a rally towards year end.
We got sell triggers toward 3'595 and 1'735 which gets invalidated if we go above 9'948 and 11'688.
Another turn date is on 7th Aug.
We got impulse violation if we are blow 6'657.
Some bullish divergence on the 4hr.
Post of today focusing on bull count:
Due to the depth of the retracement of the current wave he recounted and sees current move as a 2 wave rather than a 4 wave. That would lead to much higher prices if true.
He sees this count as invalidated or better unlikely if we go below the 0.65 fib at around 6'700.
What we need for this count is a impulsive wave up. Anyway he expects we are going up to 7'650 (0.5 fib). There it is decided if bears we a target for much lower targets get control or if we move up in an impulse.
Post of yesterday focusing on bear count:
Focusing on the bear count today.
One possible count is we got a flat correction here. A and B wave done. B wave as a Zig-Zag 5-3-5. Now we are in C wave which highest probability is to go up to 1.272 at 13'000+ish.
The problem he has with this count is he is not seeing the volume and others momentum indicators.
Vegas wave is showing a death cross - that is concerning.
Count is technically life still - but he just doesn't see it.
Other possible count - we are moving in a triangle - that fits much better the declining volume.
From that pattern we probably break to the downside putting in a final leg down.
KEEPING YOUR AMMUNITION DRY . . . scaling in and out.
So here we are . . . broke last weeks low. . . paused . . . rallied . . . and then broke hard . . . hard enough to shut down the Bitmex platform for 30 minutes and at the same time collapsing the basis into backwardation again. . . giving a tremendous buy opportunity from the rekts . . .goat food.
Again, under last weeks lows on a scale down . . . the initial buy caught a small rally . . . whether you got stopped out after the rally or stayed with the initial trade. . . the place to double down was when the exchange was overloaded and we took the futures below perp. . . such is trading. . . it is never easy.
Buying on a break below a previous weeks low (in an uptrend) or selling above a previous weeks high (in a downtrend) is much like buying and selling a 9 on the random indicator. . . . sometimes you have a very long candle . . . so the way I like to approach it is to scale in or scale out . . . to do this you must always keep a portion of your ammunition dry. . . unless you had resting orders it was difficult to get on board this market.
Hope this helps.
Crypto Cred (bullish):
GREEN - clean break of the purple pivot would mean the move below the range low was just a trap. Long positions can be taken on a pullback (will most likely have to be LTF) and target is a chad candle as the puking bottom shorters accelerate the move.
RED - clean break of the tweezer lows (that formed below the range) would constitute a bearish break in market structure and would be good evidence that market wants to reach lower.
He sees us in a continuation pattern and he is expecting another dump at Sunday/Monday.
We at the lower end of the ichimoku cloud.
If we go down to 6'800 (0.618) and bounce off that would be great. If we wick down to 6'600 daily is also ok.
Than we would need to break through the cloud - that would be a great bullish sign.
|analyst||latest content date||link to content for details|
|Tone Vays||06. Aug||here|
|Tyler Jenks||18. July||here|
- light blue highlighted = all content that changed since last update.
- sentiment = how in general the analysts see the current situation (bearish = lower prices more likely / bullish = higher prices more likely). The sentiment is based on 4hr, daily, weekly, monthly candle charts.
- The forecast time horizon of candles can be compared with approx. 4hr = 1-2 days; daily = 4-14 days; weekly = 4 - 14 weeks; monthly = 4 - 14 month.
- target = the next (short term) price target an analysts mentions. This might be next day or in a few days. It might be that an analyst is bullish but sees a short term pull-back so giving nevertheless a lower (short term) target.
- support/res(istance) = Most significant support or resistances mentioned by the analysts. If those are breached a significant move to the upside or downside is expected.
- NVT Ratio = (Network Value to Transactions Ratio) is similar to the PE Ratio used in equity markets.
- From @ToneVays: Learning trading
- From @lordoftruth: Fibonacci Retracement
- From UglyOldGoat: How to achieve the same results of a professional trader without taking the inherent risks
- From CrytptoCred: Several great educational videos - very structured and helpful
- From @haejin: Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial
*If you like me to add other analysts or add information please let me know in the comments.