Regular daily update on BTC ta analysts opinions.
**My summary - short-term (next 24h) sentiment: bearish ** (last: bearish)
- Bounce came to an hold below 6'400
- Still bearish scenario is in full play for now and further significant downside is expected.
- But bullish scenarios get more likely with this bounce.
Bearish scenario (preferred):
- Rebound is a dead cat bounce turning below 7'000
- Price falls towards 5'500.
- Short term recovery staying under 6'000.
- After breaking 5'500 again a significant drop towards new lows in the range of 4'975 and 4'300.
- We get huge follow up
- We go up to 7'500 and higher.
Monthly performance overview:
- Update the table and added a "average" (avg) performance.
- June performance was very weak. With -14.8% clearly below the average of the last years. In fact this year is the only negative month at all (yes - including 2014).
- July is a mixed bag - 2 year positive performance and 2 year of negative performance.
- The average is positive with 7% but that is mainly due to the bull rund 2017. So just looking at this table we probably facing another negative month.
News about the blog
- I reordered the analysts based on the frequency they are updating.
- @haejin: It seems like we don't get his updates anymore soon. Might change in the future.
Analysts key statements:
Mid-term outlook: -> unchanged
He expects us to put in a swing low at around 5'000 in first two weeks of June. From there we probably bounce strong towards 7'500 and more.
Still he is expecting that we put in a final low only at around October.
- Weekly: The pump seems to be related to the CME future close of Q2. Probably this dead cat bounce is not going to last for long. He still gives his target of below 5'000 a 90% chance.
- 12h: Remains unchanged.
The Last Week we had another important level of previous lows around 5'870. Where bitcoin price is showing positive signs, the pump is most likely related to the CME future settlement date.
Our bearish scenario is valid as well. Most important moment here is standing Below 6'519 Lows.
Bitcoin Market holds Harmonic Swings, as you can see on below chart. So we still watching for bearish continuation patterns / "222" Sell.
No Change to his bearish scenario, conditioned by the price stability Below 6'519. Another round of selling can be expected to move the price towards 5'500 followed by 4'300 Area / Butterfly "Buy" the final destination and the potential bullish reversal location.
At press time, bitcoin price is around 6'400 and the bearish trend remain dominant unless breaching 6'519 and settling above it.
Todays trend is bearish. Trading between 5'500 and 6'600.
There is a possible "bullish butterfly pattern" forming, which has a target of 4'200. This would fit perfectly with the WXYX2Z count. If you can't read the image, download it and zoom in.
To be honest, the route AB and route BC don't fit 100% perfectly for this pattern, but in trading you usually don't get it perfectly.
So even if it is not a "perfect bullish butterfly pattern" we still have some data confluence here:
- Fib (and also Algo) targets @ 1.27 and 1.618 extension level lining up
- bullish butterfly pattern targets
- A fitting wave count
The clusterzone of route XA extension and the route BC extension @ approx. 4'200 is very promising.
This is why this is his primary count.
We are moving in a channel. We have a bullish divergence on the RSI. The established swing low (bear market low) of 5'780 is holding. 5'920 seems to give good support as well.
Price action will tell if the established low will prevail.
A bounce at the 7'000 level was much expected due to hitting a major trend line support established since Nov 11, 2017.
Bullish View, if we break the 7'650 range, there's a chance to hit 7'850 to 8'000 range (0.5 to 0.618 fib retracement)
Bearish View, if we break 7'161 range, we'll most likely test 7'040, which I see as failing to hold and then testing 6'500.
@haejin is moving his analysis to bitcoin live. Those of you who want to follow him directly should look into subscription. I will try to get in contact to see if I can use an abstract to post here also in the future.
Bitcoin (BTC) Short Term Update: The blue circle shows a potential pricepathway of BTC. The purple waves have been updated and it shows a scenario where purple 1,2,3 could be complete and 4 is getting its final touches. Purple 5 is still targeting the 6'300 zone or so.
Summary of targets/support/resistance
|analyst||latest content date||link to content for details|
|Tone Vays||30. June||here|
- light blue highlighted = all content that changed since last update.
- sentiment = how in general the analysts see the current situation (bearish = lower prices more likely / bullish = higher prices more likely). The sentiment is based on 4hr, daily, weekly, monthly candle charts.
- target = the next (short term) price target an analysts mentions. This might be next day or in a few days. It might be that an analyst is bullish but sees a short term pull-back so giving nevertheless a lower (short term) target.
- support/res(istance) = Most significant support or resistances mentioned by the analysts. If those are breached a significant move to the upside or downside is expected.
Further links for educational purposes:
- From @ToneVays: Learning trading
- From @philakonecrypto: Like in every post you find links to his amazing educational videos. For example here
- From @lordoftruth: Fibonacci Retracement
- From @haejin: Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial
*If you like me to add other analysts or add information please let me know in the comments.