Is Haejin A Guru Or A Quack? Let’s Find Out
I honestly don’t know yet but it is time to find out. There has been a fairly significant battle going on between supporters and detractors of Haejin for a while now. Most Steemians who are tuned in to what’s going on with the platform would have seen some of the fallout and it hasn’t been pretty. Just when it seemed to have settled down it has flared back up. I have been meaning to have a closer look at the validity of Haejins Technical Analysis for a while now, both for my own interest and in the interest of potentially helping to settle this dispute.
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The supporters of Haejin claim that he is a Genius. With his Elliot Wave theory Technical Analysis of various different Cryptos there are people who say that he’s made them a ton of money with his price forecasts. If this is true then surely his presence on STEEM is very welcome and he is probably worth the significant rewards he is getting from his upvotes.
The detractors of Haejin claim that anyone who could throw darts at a dartboard would be able to pick profitable Cryptos in this relentless Bull Market. They claim his Technical Analysis is a sham and that he is “Raping the Reward Pool” with an average of maybe 8 high paying posts daily. If this is true then those upvoting him should be educated so that they will stop enabling such abuse.
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It’s a situation where it’s really just one persons (and their supporters) word against another and people seem to be picking sides, so I am proposing that we use a bit of a scientific method to effectively paper trade some of his previous predictions to see if there is any merit in his analysis. It is a technique that I have used before to effectively benchmark and audit tipsters in any field to see if they are worth following.
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The first thing to do is to start out with an open mind and consider that either case may be a possibility. With any kind of Scientific Method there is no room for bias and so it is critical that we start out with a clean slate. What I propose to do is to collect all of Haejins posts over a particular time period – maybe 1 to 3 months – and start making the following notes :-
A. For every instance where he makes a bullish prediction and/or shows a price chart showing an increase, we find the price of the Crypto that matches the Timestamp of his post and we make a paper trade of $1000 USD of that Crypto. We ALSO make a paper trade of $1000 USD at the Total Market Capitalisation of the Crypto market as if it was an Index of all Crypto.
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B. For every instance where he makes an announcement of profit on a previous call we find the price of the Crypto and the Total Market Cap at the time of the post and we will close out both of the $1000 USD paper trades. We will then compare the profitability of the two trades and see whether Haejin has outperformed the broader market.
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C. For any bearish predictions we will do the opposite by shorting $1000 USD of the specified Crypto and shorting the Total Market Cap. I don’t think there are many of these, but it is important to be thorough and have the contingency in place.
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D. Any post where he is showing both increase and decrease scenarios will be considered ambiguous and neutral. We will not record any paper trades against these posts.
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E. Any instance where he has made a prediction but has NOT made a profit announcement in the Time Period we will take the price of the Crypto and the Total Market Cap at the end of the Time Period and consider that this is an Open Interest, to have current profit/loss recorded accordingly.
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What all this will do is determine whether followers of Haejin would have performed better than the broader market, or worse. This is how many hedge fund managers are benchmarked. If Haejin outperforms the broader market then we can agree that he either has some invaluable insight into Crypto Technical Analysis or he is able to influence the market with self-fulfilling predictions. Either way, he is worth following and worth having on STEEM. If he under performs the broader market then we can agree that he adds no real value to the platform and followers would be better off throwing darts at a dartboard than following his predictions.
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I am not normally one to get involved in this sort of personal conflict, but I can see it is a detriment and a distraction for the platform. If I can be blunt I am tired of it and it has gone on for long enough. I think that it is time for it to be resolved and some impartial analysis be done to bring facts into the light. I’m not expecting the die-hards on either side of this argument to ever change their mind (or even support this analysis) but I’m hoping there are enough people with the platforms best interest at heart who will support it.
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I would certainly enjoy reading such an analysis. I chose not to make one myself, for a few reasons:
Maybe I can help out, if you want, message me on Discord.
I appreciate the offer. I haven't yet started out so I haven't estimated the amount of work involved and the (proportional) time period. I think I saw you made some notes about profitability previously and the main difference here is I want to benchmark against the broader market cap.
This is a very good point - ive seen constructive comments from both sides, but the masses are still committed to argue and flag on behalf of whoever they believe in, regardless of facts.
@lexiconical: can you explain why you seem to leave steemit? I would like to understand, so my question is plain and serious. Does this war has a significant impact on the whole community from your perspective? Sometimes I think that and then I don't. From what I understand it doesn't matter how the majority behaves but those who can cause great impacts through their wallets. ... When the big players drive it into the swamp: this is it?
Me, I think it would be nice to know. However, you are taking a big big risk if you do this. You do understand that he with a couple of 100% downvotes on you and his favorite whale a couple of 100% downvotes on you, your Rep could be a twin of berniesanders.
If you have a rescue whale, I would say go for it. If it ends up being a blatant scam, like performance is 230% below what the broader market is, you could be in serious trouble. Remember it is almost always the messenger that takes the bullet.
If you do this, remember steemcleaners will try to help fight against retaliation downvoting, so keep them in the back of your mind if you take this project on.
This is a good point and it is a risk that I have considered. For a start, I am not downvoting anyone and I am trying to approach the issue from an impartial angle and not take sides. I am trusting that my integrity will be recognised and preserved.
If the findings do come out one way or the other and I do get attacked for it, I would hope that I'll find support from other whales to counter any downvotes. If that doesn't happen then my logical conclusion will be that the platforms demise in inevitable and I am wasting my time here, so I will leave. But I am optimistic it won't come to that :)
Even if they do flag you, you'd still be right.
I'd go for it if I cared even the slightest fucking bit. This commie flag was has utterly destroyed any fucks I had left to give about this platform.
I guess I still care a bit and I've missed your posts of late. If you do end up giving any fucks about any other platform please be sure to drop me a note about it :)
I'll be right behind you if this happens, because I always believed that this was Steemit's biggest flaw.
Agreed. This is a commie nightmare waiting to flare out. The "party" controls the stake, and they decide how much you "get" to have.
If the worst does happen, then I am sure some will come to your aid. I think it would be something @ned would aid in if he had to, and if not, there are a lot of redfish, minnows, and dolphins that would try to help, if a call for help is sent out.
Oh, yeah, Ned is a real crusader for helping the little guy rofl:
Corollary: This place is fucked.
This is a nice sentiment, but unfortunately people don't always respect impartiality and the scientific method. This whole haejin mess is pretty ridiculous. I'm just a minnow watching the sidelines but when money is at stake people have a tendency to toss out things like respect of integrity.
I still think it's a good idea, though. I like the idea of someone actually doing the research instead of taking sides and screaming at each other.
You have to BE the change you want to see in the world...or in this case, platform :)
This is going to be a good test for me to find out if I am wasting my time here. So I look forward to the outcome however it plays out.
You are, indeed, mostly wasting your time here.
The prosecution rests...and is going out for some hard liquor.
great post, shame it's buried here inside the inside.
On that quote alone i wish you all the best amigo!
Any deliberate bullying without due course of discussions should be countered. One way for that would be to create an account that could counter such attacks and all sensible people can delegate some SP to this account so that the greater interests of the platform are maintained.
However one good thing amongst all these hoopla is that people recognise Steem as value and a source generating income and hence all these attempts at gaming the system. When there are ways to make money power play comes into fore and it is the same case with Steem as well. But let us hope that with governance built into blockchain it can be better handled on Steem than in the real world.
Whether Steem whales will consider the long term prospects of the platform and hence their own or will they think short term will decide the fate of the platform itself in my opinion.
Do you mean gaming the system as in posting multiple comments in response to a post, self-voting them to 100% without even upvoting the original post.
Yeh, that sort of gaming the system really sucks eh. It's rife.
Thats a good approach. But one flaw I see is that it was an alt bull market so alt-coins would have performed much better compared to bitcoin or the top 3-4 coins. If there is a way you could factor in that as well then it would be a great analysis.
He spotten the altcoin bull run and milked the maximum out of it. Once he got popular the hysteria could have added to the pumping effect he had by posting about an altcoin.
However this has highlighted the governance issue in Steemit. Next couple of days will be interesting and I would like to see how these issues are sorted out.
I applaud your willingness to do this (if in fact you gain enough support through the comments to feel it worth all the time and effort to do it). I think it's only appropriate that a neutral party take a look at the results.
I've been around on Steemit just long enough to know that this is a big part of the issues currently plaguing the platform, and it would be good to be able to resolve it through proper analysis. I will accept the results no matter how it turns out (I have no dog in the fight, other than seeing resolution to the ongoing back and forth).
My main concern is the results will be inconclusive, and we will be right back in it.
Thanks. It is quite likely the results will be inconclusive, but we won't know until we try :)
Been watching the crypto markets since 2013 and for me it was pick a coin and hodl = win. Today it's no different but still for long term. I think his predictions are not wrong in a sense but still anyone can make them. His only upside is understanding the charts, but any coin listed on the most popular exchange will bring profits.
Just because of how many XRP there are, I never imagined what XRP is doing today. This has opened my eyes to what other coins can do, and the actual demand that crypto has. The market cap will absolutely grow tremendously.
I have actually tried your method with a few of his predictions already, but on a much smaller scale. It has been a loss since then but the reason is pretty obvious. However; I think it is still to early to make any decisions. So I would absolutely support your outcome because I feel that when it comes to my "investments" vs "his suggestions" I think my own will be more profitable.
I'm not exactly throwing darts at a dart board, however; following his predictions IMO is like throwing darts at a dart board. I can say that any coin will be both up and down in a given day, and be right. So far his "numbers" are off as I'm still waiting for Dash to hit $1900 and NXT to hit over $3. Predictions are great and so are profits but when I invest in a coin it is because I believe in the coin. I believe in what it's doing, what it stands for, I understand it. I can see how it is unique unlike other copycoins, scamcoins and shitcoins. I can see where it brings value and the world needs it. I do my research and my due diligence on a coin. When it comes to making predictions about coins, for example, that are listed on Bittrex, man it's damn near a win/win for any coin. Sit on a coin long enough and you'll see gains. I'm already in dash, so his dash prediction isn't my reason for being in dash. His NXT prediction reminded me that I wanted some and it was time, because I believe in the coin anyways I figured why not.
Sit on a coin too long and you'll see a loss, as well as "If you had woken up 3 hours earlier and signed in, you would have seen decent gains and buy back more 3 hours later during the drop". It's just all about timing, but it's all about the value that the coin brings too.
When Dash first made the change from Darkcoin and Ethereum was relatively new, they were both at $1. I knew that they were going to be huge. They brought huge potential to the table because I read about them and did my research. Did I profit from my own prediction based on my own research and understanding? Absolutely
The problem is a lot of New Money coming in and doesn't understand whatsoever how crypto works, they just want to play the market.
Don't just take his word for it, read up on the coins. However; in todays market, you can play the trading game with any coin and make profits daily because of the volatility.
I also feel many are upvoting him just to get curation rewards. From seeing my rewards, people are doing it wrong when it comes to upvoting a post just because it's trending or just because it'll payout huge thinking they'll get a large curation reward out of it.
Good post. What you are talking about here is analysing and understanding the Fundamentals of a Crypto, which is something I believe very strongly too. But a lot of people are uninformed and just rely on Technical Analysis (charting) from people like Haejin, which is why I think it's important for people to know whether it's a strategy that can work or not so they can be better informed.
I actually like this idea regardless of the issues surrounding him.
I did this actually with an ai bot I was following that made calls. Spent a few hours tracking all the calls and realized it was a decent bot!
Then sure enough he released a "summary of his calls" and how accurate they were a day later...blahhhh all that time put in to find out how accurate he was and then he goes and tells me! lol
It's always best to never blindly follow anything though. EVERYTIME I find a new TA person and blindly follow their calls I ALWAYS lose money on that call, 100% lol karma!
I'd be very interested to see this AI bot if your open to sharing. I haven't started the analytical grind yet but it sounds like it might make the job easier. Does it do any benchmarking against the broader market?
Couldn't we just ask to see a copy of his trading journal? Or maybe he can show us his account performance/track record on a site like Myfxbook? The proof is in the pudding.
The problem here is that the other side won't trust the trading journal is not modified. This way is more work but it is also more likely the 2 sides will recognise the independent analysis.
Myfxbook is 100% true and verifiable ... the statistics there on a live account can be trusted.
There is a battle between "grumpy cat" supporters and detractors too.
He has no supporters other than his self-voting and minnow sycophants who are idiots:
we either decide we have the right to control how people use their steem, or we don't. that really is the question...
somehow this whole thing feels like gun control, start a fire here, blame it on those over there, try to gain some advantage.
just saying, it smells fishy to me, with lots of name calling, and little discussion. and trying to say 'be nice' got downvoted to oblivion on his post. lol.
We don't have the right to control what people do, but we DO have the right to decide (collectively) how the reward pool gets shared. All I am doing here is trying to ensure people are more informed of the facts before they make their own decision on how they want to share the rewards.
That's an interesting approach. Have you already started implementing it ?
Not yet, I am just seeing whether I have any chance of getting support to see whether it is worth doing and whether I will do a short time period or a longer one. (I'm not doing a huge amount of analytic work if no-one cares)
I see. Getting some reward for this work is maybe not easy. Probably there would be more traction if you compare different gurus, so people could use your results to make a decision on whom to follow.
It is probably a different post to be comparing gurus. Here I just want to find out if this is genuine value on the platform or abuse.
Creating a Token that is resembling the difference between the prediction and the true development could maybe do the job another way around. It would be easy to do this with a trusted party, but that's maybe not possible here. As the predictions are already on the blockchain it should be enough to create price feeds for the altcoins, and deploy the tokens as some form of contract for difference. In a natural way the token's exchange rate should mimic the quality of the prediction and additionally transfer SP/SBD to the people banged on the target.
Ok. It's an interesting idea. I'd like to make sure I can crawl though, before I try to walk or run with something like this :)