What the Spread: an Analysis on Bitcoin Futures contracts

If you're look to make money on Bitcoin future contracts I know a way to make money with none of the risk. It is called Arbitrage. The last time I looked the Jan 1 BTC futures contract was trading at $18,300.00 while BTC was trading at around $16,000.00 according to CoinMarketCap.com. Given that Jan 1 BTC doesn't settle until Jan 1, any trader can decide to sell short the higher priced futures contract and buy long the underlying asset which will yield the spread between the two prices at expiration. This is a no brain-er for investors. So why hasn't this been priced in already?

This is my predictions of possible reasons why.

1. Because of Exchange Risk (unlikely)
   The first day of futures contracts went over all very well-- however, the second day demonstrated waning volume which is atypical for newly listed commodities. This could mean investors are skeptical and could believe that the spread will widen. The only way the spread could widen is if the bitcoin futures contract was settled in bitcoin. Since it is settled in cash investors are not stuck with bitcoin at delivery and therefore do not have to take additional risk to sell it post settlement.

2. Because of Margin (likely)
   I believe the reason for the spread not closing is because.. wait for it.. because the thing we were all waiting for already happened. Institutional investors are already in the space. I argue this point because existing future/ option exchanges offer up 10x leverage. The CBOE does definitely not give that. 'Institutional investors' do not want to invest in a low margin environment when they can leverage 3.33x on most non-US exchanges (i.e. Bitfinex) and make more money, and b) can easily misreport their earnings and avoid having to pay more taxes than everyone else.