Sorting out the values of Steem

in #steem6 years ago

Are we better off when the value of Steem is high or low? What about having the SBD pegged at $1 USD or allowing it's value to float on the open market?

I have often asked myself these questions, and today I decided to crunch some numbers to find out. I find it quite confusing (STILL, after almost a year) trying to sort out in my own mind between SBD, Steem or Steem Power and how these relate to the USD. I found that a table helped me to visualize what was actually going on.

For the real newbies: Steem and Steem Power (SP) convert 1:1. They are basically the same thing, except Steem is liquid (easily moved or spent) while Steem Power (SP) is locked in and gives voting power.

In order to keep things simple, I am totally ignoring curation and its associated rewards. I am also using a fixed PAY-OUT of $2.00 because when using the 50-50 payout it splits nicely into giving $1 to each of SBD and SP.


ValueAnalysis.JPG

From the above table, one can easily see from line 6 that if we did NOT use the 50-50 payout at this time (with Steem currently sitting at around $4), a $2 pay-out would be converted to just 0.5 SP (It costs $4 to buy 1 SP, so $2 only buys a half of one SP).

Line 5 shows that by splitting your rewards, a $2 payout {column B} will give you 1 SBD (because it is erroneously assumed that the SBD is pegged at $1 USD) and $1 WORTH of SP (which in this case is 1/4 SP) {column C}. Now if you were to convert your earnings to SP {column D}, you would end up with 1 SP (1 SBD at $4 = 1 SP at $4) and 0.25 SP, for a total of {column E} 1.25 SP.

With the SBD currently at around $5, you actually get a bit MORE SP when you sell your SBD for Steem and then power up into SP.

Line 6 also demonstrates what would happen to your payouts if the SBD was in fact pegged to the USD as has been proposed. Without the benefit of allowing the value of the SBD to rise up with the value of Steem, it would cost 4 times more SBD's to purchase SP and it would be equivalent to taking your pay-out as 100% SP.

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Line 3 of the table is there to orient oneself with what is being shown by using both Steem and the SBD at a value of $1 USD. Column B shows a pay-out of $2 and column C shows that same pay-out broken down into 1 SBD and 1 SP. This is the way one would receive their payment if they chose the 50-50 split. In order to power up, you would need to convert (column D) your SBD into Steem and then 'move' the Steem to SP. Column E shows you the total amount of SP earned after the conversion.

Lines 8 and 9 are similar to lines 5 and 6, except that in this case the value of Steem is assumed to be $10 instead of $4. Allowing the value of SBD's to match the value of Steem keeps total earnings comparatively high (line 8) while we can clearly see that a rise in the value of Steem while keeping the SBD pegged at $1 USD (line 9) would hurt potential growth a lot!

Although the above clearly indicates that a rising value of Steem is harmful to growth, let's not forget that as the value of Steem increases, so do the pay-out amounts. When I had roughly 400 SP and Steem was worth approximately $1, my votes generated 4 cents (or 1 cent per hundred SP). I'm now at roughly 670 SP and my votes yield 20 cents (or 2.985 cents per hundred SP) while Steem is roughly $4.50. So with Steem worth 4.5 times as much as it was before, one would expect my votes to yield 4.5 times as much as before, or 4.5 cents per 100 SP. However, we can see that (line 13) this is clearly not the case. Again, the rising value of Steem hurts growth. It is very clear that the more Steem goes up in value, the harder it will be to earn Steem Power. This would apply to both the little fish and the whales because it is universal to how rewards are calculated.

Just for fun, I added line 16 to see what it was like to be one of the very early adopters who were earning SP when Steem was worth 10 cents and the SBD was worth $1. Ignoring the fact that there was far less competition to receiving eyeballs and votes and that the reward pool was divided by way fewer people, they were lucky enough to earn SP at roughly 16 times what we can do now.

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In conclusion, I would say that it is great for people who are selling Steem to have a high Steem value because they will gain from the appreciation of their asset. Those who have already accummulated enough Steem and are simply cashing in will want to see a high Steem value. Those who are not yet finished accummulating Steem would likely want to see the value of Steem rise and fall so that they can buy when the price is low and at the same time earn more as well; then sell when the price goes up and benefit from the difference between the price paid and the price received. The thousands who are desperately trying to earn Steem should be hoping that the price of Steem goes down so that they can accumulate more before the value increases (as it undoubtedly will). Everyone who is already here should be thankful they got in early because it will only get harder and harder to accumulate Steem as the price rises.

So which is better? A high value of Steem or a low value? I guess it depends on who you ask and where they are at!

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I sincerely thank you for your interest!
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So basically it's best for the price of both steem and SBD to stay as low as possible for us to earn the most.

Actually, with a low Steem price and a high SBD, one would do really well because trading the SBD at the assumed value of $1 USD when earned is then sold for more Steem and thus more SP. I should have done an example of that on the spreadsheet so it's easier to see.

ValueAnalysis2.JPG

I believe you can r-click the image to open it in its full size to see it better.
Using the same $2 pay-out, it would break down into a dollar worth of SBD and a dollar worth of SP. However, when you sell that 1 SBD, you can buy 6 Steem with it! 6 Steem converted to SP = 6 SP. Plus the one SP given as SP, grants you a total of 7 SP for your $2 earning!

Not all that long ago we saw something like this when the SBD was worth several times what Steem was worth. I believe it was 5x or something close to that. It only stayed that way for a few hours and then receded over a number of days.

it will only get harder and harder to accumulate Steem as the price rises.

Yes, it is already getting hard. I remember buying steem at 0.90usd some months back. In my opinion I like to see my SP having a good value, but I also like to gain more SP on the platfrom. This is inversely proportional to each other. I hope in the long run, we will be happy.
In btw. You made a good analysis and I found it by a @leggy23 resteem.

I have always wanted to see the price of Steem go up so that I could see my VP increase in value. I get great pleasure from handing out money that isn't coming out of my own pocket! As you pointed out though, it is a double-edged sword. By giving bigger votes, we stunt our growth. This is why I did the spreadsheet and made myself aware of the error in my thinking. For me, it would be better to have a low Steem value so that I can grow my account faster and raise my SP. THEN, once I have LOTS of SP, the price of Steem can go to the moon and I'll see myself handing out huge votes! Oh what joy that would be!!!

Thanks to @leggy23 for the re-steem! I'm glad you saw this.
If you want regular up-votes from me on a daily basis, you are welcome to join the next zombie game which will begin in a couple of days. The votes are still small, but better than the 4 cents I could only give before.

Being a newbie, i found this extra helpful. The analysis was straight to the point and well broken down. Thanks for this and thanks to @leggy23 for the resteem.

Thanks for reading and responding.
I agree... Thanks to @leggy23 for the resteem. Not many seem to want to do a resteem these days. I'm not sure why there seems to be that reluctance.

Congratulations! Your post has been selected as quality content that deserves more attention.

I upvoted your contribution because to my mind your post is at least 64 SBD worth and should receive 131 votes. It's now up to the lovely Steemit community to make this come true. By the way, your post is listed on rank 1 of all truffles found today! You can find the TOP DAILY TRUFFLE PICKS HERE.

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Wouldn't that be something if this post actually did earn 64 SBD!!!
Personally, I think this information SHOULD be seen by a whole lot more people than will see it, because it has information that I'm sure many will want to know.

Thanks for the #1 ranking and good luck with your initiative! This is a great project and could be worthy of submitting to (rats.... I can't think of the name. Something.io that rewards developers for making software that helps Steem). If anyone can help with the name, it would be appreciated.

The name I couldn't remember is

Utopian.io

I think it basically comes down to personality to some degree as well. If you are aggressive (and have a decent amount of time!!!) it's good to be able to flip as the price goes up and down. That becomes as simple imo as "buy low sell high". If you don't have as much time or are more content to just sit on your Steem, then you probably want stability so you just don't have to think about it. Tying the value to $1 US is good for the latter group.

If you don't have as much time or are more content to just sit on your Steem, then you probably want stability so you just don't have to think about it. Tying the value to $1 US is good for the latter group.

Are you saying this group has already collected as much SP as they want and are now content to simply allow the value of Steem to rise and increase their account value? If so, why would it rise if very few are interested in getting into Steem because it's just too hard to earn? Only a speculator / trader would be interested, but with stability, the price will not move much. I don't understand why this would be favorable. The only reason I can think of for wanting a stable (pegged) SBD would be so that SBD can be used as a currency.

I see what you are saying. I meant that they were more content to just have a slow increase in Steem, rather than necessarily trying to maximize earnings.

So for example, I tend to only come on here from time to time, comment some, and I figure I'll withdraw in a few months or so. I just like the interactions and want to make a little money on the side. For somebody like me, I just want to know that I am slowly accumulating money. I don't want to spend a lot of time checking prices etc. I want stability so I know basically how much I can expect when I do cashout. I don't really want it to be slowly building up for months as I invest a little time each day, and then have it collapse as I'm about to cashout basically.

The idea of use as a currency is also somewhat appealing to me, but it just isn't at that point yet. I suppose it would be good to set up that standard and expectation ahead of time though.

Thanks for the explanation.
I can see where you would want stability, but that just isn't going to happen to a cryptocurrency anyway. There will always be the pump and dumps. For me, the chart simply answers the question of whether I am personally better off when the price of Steem is low and everyone is dishing out smaller votes or I'm better off having bigger votes but sacrificing growing my account. Since my account is rather tiny, earnings are not very significant either way. But since I don't have any plans to cash out, my goal is to grow my SP as fast as possible so that when Steem does go ballistic, I'm able to feel like a whale doling out massive up-votes.

I would have thought that everyone would want to grow their account as fast as possible so that when the time comes for them to cash out, they get more than if the account didn't grow. For instance, if you have $20 value in your account and you grow it slowly to $21, you really didn't gain that much. However, if you can grow that $20 into $200, then you made something.

Now let's play a little game:
Say you took a year to go from $20 to $21 and at the end of that year Steem went up by 10 times. You would then have a whopping $210.
However, if you grew your account to $200 instead, you would end up with $2,000! Don't you think that would be more worth your effort?

I wish the price was low again....I would stock up and buy if Steem were .81 like it was last year.

Me too! I kind of doubt it will go that low again though. Right now it seems stuck at the 4-5 dollar mark. I suspect it may go down a bit and then shoot back up past where it is now. But this is crypto... anything can happen.

The universal confusion is very well explained in your post. I just think both ways is good for me. Because even if it directly doesn't impact my profile, the indirect effect surely will. May it be good or bad.

Thanks for the response. I'm glad you are flexible enough to see it from both sides and accept whatever may be. Having a good attitude is good for your health and will eventually pay off in one way or another.

Following your link that you have left under my post - here I am! 🙂

As far as I can see we were covering more or less the same topic but with a different approach to it.
Looking solely from some earning/rewarding aspect as the difference between STEEM and SBD is bigger in SBD favor, the better it would be for us.

P.S.
I don't know did you noticed that they changed a bit 50-50 payout recently. It's not some enormous change but it's either not a negligible one.
The thing is that 50% part that should be paid in SBD is not anymore fully paid in SBD. One (bigger) portion is still paid in SBD while the other is paid in STEEM.
Checking it through just a few of my recent posts I noticed that the portion being paid in STEEM varies from 9% to above 22%. I still didn't figure out what determines which percentage would it be, but in some more concrete example, it would look like somewhat as the following.

$100 ---> Displayed earning under our posts
- $25 Curation reward
= $75

$75 (before 50%-50% split) =
37.50 SBD
37.50 / $1.71 (current Steem rate) = 21.930 Steem Power

Additional dividing of 37.50 SBD =
when 9% ---> 37.50 - 3.375 = 34.125 SBD
3.375 / $1.71 ((current Steem rate) = 1.974 STEEM
With Final reward total: 34.125 SBD + 1.974 STEEM + 21.930 Steem Power

when 22% ---> 37.50 - 8.25 = 29.25 SBD
8.25 / $1.71 ((current Steem rate) = 4.825 STEEM
With Final reward total: 29.25 SBD + 4.825 STEEM + 21.930 Steem Power

THANK-YOU for that very detailed explanation! I noticed the change to earnings shortly AFTER writing this article. I have not seen anything about WHY the change was made nor how the calculations were done. It appears like it has now become even more difficult for newbies to grow their accounts from nothing because more of the advantage from getting paid in SBD has been removed. All the more reason for early adopters who got the advantage to support the newcomers and keep them from being discouraged. I would love to see Steem become a worldwide currency and for that to happen, we need universal adoption.

Many thanks for the up-dated information regarding earnings!

You are welcome! 🙂
I didn't find any official explanation "why" and "how" this change happen either.
It's also a bit confusing and definitively unclear, as you may see from the above formula, the amount or percentage deducted from SBD reward and paid in STEEM may vary quite significantly (at least from my articles' examples) what means we never know what we would receive exactly at the end.

Regarding possible bigger difficulty for newbies, I would say somewhat yes but I don't think it should influence it that much.
In comparison to the first months of the platform when seeing 10 cents ($0.10) under your post would be a cause for celebration party (as the reward calculation and algorithm were entirely different), this seems like nothing to me. - lol - Please, don't get me wrong! 🙂

At 10 cents per Steem, seeing a reward of 10 cents then would be like seeing $2 now. Compound that with the fact that the steem you earned back then is now worth 20 times as much and you may consider things a little differently. (2X20=40) You bet I would celebrate if I earned $40 per post! I've been here almost a full year now and am seeing roughly $1 per post. A real newbie will see just cents for each. This is why I am dedicated to assisting those who are just starting out on this platform even though I have not even reached 750 SP in a year.

You are correct in saying that the new changes will not affect payments that much, but from a perspective of someone starving, taking 3 spoonfuls of rice out of their daily cup of rice means a lot more than taking a plate of food from a buffet table.

hahaha 😂 - I'm sorry, but you really made me laugh with your calculation and especially with the result. You apparently got hooked and excited with the idea of possible $40 per post that you get lost. - lol -

The thing is that Steem worth today about 20x more as you said or to be precise (according to the current rate of $1.70 per 1 Steem) 17x more than back than.
So, and in case (what has never been the case) that even all the earnings displayed under our post in total amount would end up in our Steem wallet at 1:1 ratio, it would be 0.10 Steem

  • Back then ---> 0.10 Steem x $0.10 US = $0.01 US
  • Today ---> 0.10 Steem x $2.00 US = $0.20 US (or at the current rate 0.10 Steem x $1.70 US = $0.17 US

In other words, the amount of 0.10 Steem in our Wallets, unfortunately, didn't become $40 neither Steem nor USD!

The only more significant change we might see although still not $40 per post, is that the same upvotes that we received back then which total amount worth was displayed under our posts as $0.10 (because of that 20x increase of Steem value) today would be displayed as $2.00 (or $1.70) because 0.10 x 20 = 2

To be able to see it as $40 Steem would need to reach first the amount of $40 per 1 Steem what would make the value of our upvotes 400x bigger than it was back then. 😉
And I think we will have to wait for that additional 2-3 years. 🙂

Sorry, I was in a big hurry this morning and made a lot of really big generalizations and assumptions. Let me try this again:

A 10 cent post back then, split 50/50 would give 0.05 SBD and 5 cents worth of Steem. At a price of 10 cents per steem, that would be half a steem or 0.5 Steem. Now you sell the SBD and get another half Steem. Together you earned 1 whole Steem for a 10-cent post. Now you wait until the Steem is worth $2 each as it is today (very roughly). So that 10-cent post is now worth $2 rather than the original 10 cents you saw when you claimed it, a 20-fold increase. Yes, you are correct, my original math was laughable!

Now a 10 cent post will yield 0.05 SBD and 0.025 Steem. Convert the 0.05 SBD to Steem and get another 0.025 Steem because both SBD and Steem are near the same value. Together you earned 0.05 Steem or 10 cents. You need to do that 20 times to earn a single Steem.

Oh, don't apologize, please!
I made so many similar excited wrong calculations myself to realize after I didn't take in consideration half of influencing aspects or I did but in a wrong way. The only luck was, I didn't publish them! 😂

Never the less, I would love so much that your math is correct, as we would already be far ahead on our Steemit trip! 🙂
But although we are not there yet, I believe we would get there hopefully sooner than later. However, when that day comes, recalling on this conversation it would be a great fun! 🙂

I look at it this way:
Everyone that is already here is an early adopter and will eventually benefit from the rising value of Steem.
Those who got here first will generally have the greatest benefit because they had the most time to collect and had less competition for dividing the reward pool. The later one enters the Steem universe, the less their chance of making a big profit. Steem needs more users in order to become more valuable, but that also dilutes the reward pool, so earning rewards will only get more and more difficult.

The past is always full of memories; some good and some not so good, but we can always laugh at what once was because it is in the past and is no longer the present.

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I think sbd should be pegged to the dollar...

Why? How would that make things better? For whom?

I just thought it would be easier to understand for everyone so .10 equals .10 in sbd is all your thoughts?

Oh. OK, that makes sense. So basically you want the SBD to be usable as currency. Something that remains relatively stable.

Yes exactly. Followed you hope to see good things from you :)

Thanks for the follow. I don't post these sort of things often. I generally spend way too much of my time on the daily zombie adventure game. I also have a weekly contest and weekly Steem store.

A zombie adventure game with steem or somewhere else?

Right here on Steem. I'll be posting up a sign-up page in the morning... about 9 hours from now. A new game with a bit of a twist from previous games.

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