[Vlog] Hedging EOS ahead of launch
9 months on...
It was about 9 months ago I made my last major purchase in cryptocurrency. On Friday night I went to an EOS meet up and recorded my thoughts of the event and my investment strategy ahead of the launch.
I bought EOS when it was around 60 cents (0.0001 BTC at the time). It seemed too tempting a price not to. The market was valuing EOS at the end of the token distribution at around $600m. While Block.One had already raised at that point $1bn dollars. Around that time there was a lot of FUD around China banning cryptocurrency and Jamie Diamond calling cryptocurrencies a scam, so sentiment around EOS was low. Particularly as many people could not wrap their head around a token that was de jure worthless but de facto anything but.
I bought quite bullishly when the market sentiment was low. However I was more than prepared to double down should the price fall even further.
I hadn’t implemented my usual strategy of taking profits every time the price doubled. Instead I decided that I would hold until the token distribution had ended, then sell half ahead of launch (if the price had increased significantly).
Time for some action
So this week the time had come for me to pull the trigger and sell some EOS. If was difficult. I’m usually quite gung-ho when it comes to crypto. I’m also the internal optimistic when it comes to projects I believe in. However there comes a point where, no matter how you feel about a project, you need to look at things from a risk management point of view.
The cautious tale...
I’m not expecting anything to go wrong with the EOS launch; however there are a number of things that steer me towards being cautious.
Firstly, strangely enough, is over-exuberance. I’ve been to a couple of EOS meet-ups, mainly to gauge the temperature of the projects. It all seems a bit decadent. Free alcohol on tap, a massive over-supply of merchandise. I had a weird deja vu of some of The DAO meet ups I went to when that launched. Not that I think EOS will be anything like The DAO however I’d prefer the champagne to be on ice until after the platform has at least launched and delivered something!
Secondly, there are inherent risks with any blockchain launch. I think there is a disconnect between people’s expectation when EOS launches and what the launch and landscape might look like in the coming days or weeks. I spoke previously about the ‘messy’ births of blockchains. However I think there are lots of people waiting for EOS to prove blockchains can scale and provide usable applications out-of-the-bat. As oppose to laying the groundwork for what can be possible in 12-18 months time.
Thirdly, there are risks around the transition from the ERC20 to the Main-net. Both from a personal key management perspective as well as the blockchain.
Fourthly, there is a chance my funds could be locked up in EOS for a long period of time before I find a wallet I can trust with my private keys.
Fifthly, market sentiment towards (and the price of) bitcoin is relatively low. If bitcoin rallies for some reason, the risk of the crypto market could suffer vs bitcoin.
The win, win
The likelihood is that the EOS launch will be successful and the price reflect this somehow. Which would be great, not only do I win, but it's a great win for cryptocurrency. I would have locked in profit and my EOS portfolio would be very healthy. Also it would breathe confidence into the market.
However if something unexpected does happen, I’ve at least gone some way to mitigating my risk and what could have turned into a disaster, instead becomes a potential buying opportunity. I like to have ‘a plan if it goes up… and a plan if it goes down’ and decisions like this (to sell some EOS ahead of launch) go some way to helping me achieve that.
As always, thanks for sharing your thoughts and decision making process. I salute the discipline.
Interesting, I did exactly the same thing for almost exactly the same reasons. Having bought the bulk around the same time as you, I offloaded a portion of my holdings a few weeks ago as the last pump started to deflate and I must say, the sell button was harder to click on EOS than for anything else I have sold in the past. I both believe and hope that that cost me a great deal vs a HODL strategy but like you said, risks need to be mitigated.
Sometimes you need to forgo the prospect of making maximum profit in favour of risk mitigation.
I'm comfortable with the fact that I made the "right" decision at the time even if (in hindsight) it turns out I could have made more money.
Indeed, it's a mindset I learned playing poker. You don't stay in an expensive hand when the odds on catching the card you need to win are small. You lay it down because that is the right call with the available information at the time. If the card happens to fall afterwards you don't regret the decision.
Yep - I used to play poker too... A lot of the principles there translate into crypto trading quite well.
When u lock in profits do u go fiat, usdt,BTC or another coin?
Hey! see my reply on my recent post
Great vlog, its always good to lock in some profits, the bigger question would be, with those profits are you willing to come to the party and dance again, if the answer in yes and others are thinking like you, there could be merry times ahead, but if everyone is thinking of milking BTC away then we can see the perpetual downward trend like many has experience... Probably they can targets some dapps tackling major sector/industry problems and move ahead with it
Sure - there is always a price at which I'd get back in. 😎With EOS it doesn't have to be that low... at present I did to hedge against things going wrong during the launch.
Merry days ahead if the crowd is thinking like you, I think the model may actually work out, its my understanding that EOS tokens have to be stake so there would be some price stability
Is there a certain price you would be cautious of buying EOS at currently? I've bought in some and it's doing well. Great post because I've been wanting to hear more on EOS. Also you think you could make a post on Cardano sometime? I'd really enjoy hearing your opinion on it!
Right now I'd be cautious.
In terms of buying EOS... my caution would be dictated by how much EOS I had.
If I had below my target amount I would price average at these prices (buying a conservative amount every week/ month). I would look for dips in the market to make more substantial buys.
If I had my target amount or more... I would wait for dips before buying.
Re: Cardano. My inclination at present is to wait until the project is further along before taking a decision on whether I should invest. I don't have the time at present to investigate whether it's worth getting in early. The primary reason I invested in EOS early is because Dan Larimer has a track record of delivering useable blockchain technology that can scale. I'd need to see similar evidence from Cardano before getting involved. Getting the right balance between rigorous peer reviewed code and going to market in a timely manner will be key for Cardano.
This is exactly what I was needing to know. Definitely like what EOS is wanting to do. If you believe in it then I'm pretty sure I'm on the right track. Thanks Nanzo!
This awesome to hear my man.
This is great because this is not just about EOS. Most of us have heard that cryptos are going to fail during all are crypto-careers (however long or short of a span they might have had).
There even have been those who have done their homework and have bought a coin based on a decent idea and team. But only those have prospered who have stood behind their coins.
I hope you get to enjoy your EOS success with all its glory :-).
PS: I was a bit late to the party but that wouldn't matter much after a couple of years.
What a great strategy you have adopted in dealing with EOS. I still have a feeling the start will be somehow messy before everything get into shape.
You’re wise to be cautious! I followed the same path as you on this one but have “a feeling” about EOS. I think this one will surpass expectations. Hope you’re well!
Hey Eric - I'm great, hope all is good with you. I think EOS will do well also. However the biggest risks are around the launch of the blockchain. Once it is up and running, and trusted wallets are established I'll be more comfortable and less cautious.
Every successful investor and trader must have a workable strategies, but i still see EOS increasing to about 300 dollars before the end of this year and as a long term investor the wise and best decision to make is to hodl for at least nine months after launch
You could very well be right. Either way, I have enough still in EOS to be very happy if it did go to $300! 😀
Very smart, I somewhat did the same. I learned a long time ago people can’t be greedy in the crypto markets. EOS looks to be very promising but it will take them some time to prove themselves. 💯😀
Yep - I've learned to hard way about being greedy and thinking a coin can only go to the moon. Now I tread a little more carefully! 😅
Good on you my friend!
I don't even remember what I paid for my EOS coins. I did not buy them as early as you, which I regret. If there all the promises are fulfilled, EOS could be cheap even now. Time will tell.
Great strategy. It can be hard to take profits.
Not participating in the EOS launch but this is really great advice, especially for those that haven't been in the stock market before and aren't familiar with financial instruments.
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