[Video Blog #86] - Hot News, CTFC Approval & Bitcoin Cash
Please watch my video for my perspective and review.
So it seems Bitcoin CFTC has been approved which has its negatives and positives.
The positive is that this will bring new money into the space and I feel it will bring the BIG money like hedge funds and old school investors who needed certain fundamentals and systems in place to get invested in Bitcoin and now it is here with the CTFC.
I don't personally believe anything significant will occur however we will see a Bitcoin Cash most likely arrive on August 1st and it will just be another alt-coin with its own fundamentals.
This should not effect Bitcoin in any major way unless, by some sort of tragic event that the Segwit does not signal, it appears teh Bitcoin.com Pool with head over to the Bitcoin Cash as it will be the only way that Bitcoin as a whole can move forward.
Surely Segwitx2 will see through this storm as it has with all the other alt-coins that have so far had success with its activation so lets be mindful and simply observe.
Don't panic.
~ Sebastian
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I think bitcoin is going to take a very big crash soon..
You could be right. People will move their BTC to fiat. Get your cash ready to buy at the bottom if it happens. Probably the last chance to get BTC at such a low price. Could rebound $1000+ in a day too so will be crazy time if that happens. All alts will be cheap too.
Last time I was not smart enough to buy Steem when it fell , but this time , I'm going to try to move a step ahead for future investments
Good call. all we can do is play a smart game. I tend to keep my trading to a minimum and buy on the main games. August 1st should be a great buying opportunity however everyday is a good day really because when we look back in two years time.....price on any particular day won't matter too much. :)
Very true , let's see what the markets hold for us with this ending month and the starting month. Steem on :) and thanks for the advice
I think the more government and their filthy organizations get involved in BTC it will turn it to shit. See the SEC is treating crypto.s as financial assets to be taxed. cheers my friend.
In the meantime, we should see a massive surge into the crypto space. That is all I am waiting for and will have an appropriate exit strategy for any returns worth realising. That is all we can do at this stage.
I like the word Dont panic in your post. That is what I am doing since last month. I am sure segwit will make btc through 3500 level soon.
Don't Panic! :) It shall pass....
Thanks for keeping me up to date with some of the news, especially that part about the Wallstreet regulators seems to offer promise for the coming months!
If your prediction is right, i.e. that there is less than a 1% chance that Segwit 2x will not activate successfully, then if I had to guess, right now would be an amazing time to invest into crypto. This would be my reasoning for that:
People always overreact to the idea of losing all of their money, despite being told that there is only a 1% chance of that happening. Therefore too many people will panic sell over the next few days. They think, "Oh no, my bitcoin might lose a lot of it's value if the there is a problem with Segwit, I need to protect myself from that risk by selling"
Meanwhile the more seasoned investors are thinking more along the lines of "I estimate a 1% chance my Bitcoin will lose all of it's value but a 99% chance that I will get at least a 20% return on my money invested into Bitcoin. Since I invested 1,000 USD into Bitcoin, the expected value of a worst case scenario is -1000 *0.01 = -10 USD but the expected value of a best case scenario is +200 * 0.99 = 198 USD. Therefore the expected value of my decision to invest 1,000 USD in Bitcoin now is 188 USD, making it a no-brainer."
I'm fairly new to crypto but coming from a poker background, this would be the way I would analyze it. Naturally the numbers from the example don't represent actual estimates but if the numbers are anywhere close to right, this is likely a good investment.
What are your thoughts regarding my analysis?
Bitcoin moved $1000 in almost a day on the 17th July. I feel it will do something similar. Some will be selling and probably panic selling too on the bottom. Savvy investors will be all cashed up ready to buy in big on the perceived bottom (flash crash/s) and take up all the free access to cheap bitcoins from the novice traders. This is probably the only time I would buy in big on BTC as I usually invest in alt-coins and not to fussed about the BTC daily price fluctuations although I always check before buying to see when is the best time to enter. It will be an interesting day/week. I feel we will see it all happen early and probably 48+ hours prior to Aug 1st as we see the prices start to reflect the emotions. All I will be doing is getting ready for a big buy event. I will be selling nothing. Just stacking.
That's a good point, I am considering selling about 5% of my holdings now and putting that into tether since currently 95% of my liquid net worth is in cryptocurrency (I know this is very risky but my risk profile is very high risk).
What do you think about selling off another 5% of my portfolio to get tether to hedge against what might be lower lows before Segwit is sorted?
If that is what you want to do. I don't feel I need to do anything personally. The price on any specific day to me is irrelevant. The only benefit of hedging is so you can buy back in when it is low and improve your position on specific investments which is a good move. I am in this for the long term and will improve my position over the next 12 months however I am choosing to stand strong rather than move my funds around. I will be buying as much as I can on August 1st if the prices crash. If not, the show goes on.
What % of your portfolio is in non-crypto assets?
Non-crypto? I won't disclose my exact interests however I am strong believer in Gold, Silver and Crypto. Currently 100% debt free. No credit cards or mortgages. Not dependant on, nor do I acknowledge government as an entity.
Great post.
Thank you!