Decline of busy.org posts - Need power up for newbies!

in utopian-io •  5 months ago

Repository

https://github.com/busyorg/busy

Introduction

I think most users have ever used https://busy.org to get voting. I love Busy and also made some contributions to the source (see the end of the post).

As you may know, there are two voting accounts: @busy.org and @busy.pay. The voting weight is determined by your "influence", i.e., proportionate to the sum of your followers' (organic) SP. If the sum is above a certain threshold, you'll get voting from @busy.pay (about 500K SP), but from @busy.org (about 650 SP) otherwise.

In fact, many votes of busy.org are actually dust votes, which mean that they actually don't count at all, literally zero value! This might be too harsh, considering that users need to use 'busy' tag and busy.org site as well.

(If you're not familiar with dust vote, see my recent Utopian post [Analysis] May need vote dust threshold again for an introduction and recent trend.)

This analysis shows that the number of posts for busy.org is decreasing (of course relatively to the decrease of the entire posts). I also make some suggestions.

Scope

I analyze all posts from 9-28-2018 to 12-19-2018 that received voting from either busy.org or busy.pay. To show the relative trend, I also counted the number of all posts.

Results

Dust vote ratio of busy.org

num_post: number of posts that received voting from busy.org (Actual number can be higher, see Tools and Scripts section.)


  1. Dust vote ratio is quite high (~8%).
  2. Dust vote ratio is decreasing
  3. Number of busy.org posts is also decreasing
  • The initial glitch is due to HF20.

Actually 1) and 2) are a little bit unusual if you're not familiar with recent dust vote trend. For entire posts, dust vote ratio is in fact increasing as you can see below (blue).

[Analysis] May need vote dust threshold again by @blockchainstudio



One plausible reason behind this is that users don't like dust vote (who likes?), and 3) they stopped using it. (This can be actually shown by examining tag usage, but I think the current analysis is already enough to say the main message, so further investigation is left as an exercise :) Thus only users who can receive non-negligible voting keep using it, and therefore, 2) dust vote ratio is decreasing. But still 1) it (~8%) is much higher than average (~1%).

Decline of busy.org post

You may think previous "3) Number of busy.org posts is also decreasing" is just due to the decline of the entire posts. So I analyzed the data further to show that it is not.

  • The declines of busy.pay posts and entire posts show pretty much same trend.
  • But the decline of busy.org posts is much steeper than the others.

Fortunately, I'm getting voting from busy.pay. Thanks a lot. (I deserve it, or probably more :) I made 4 pull requests in the busy github and one was already merged (edit old posts). I have a couple of more bug fix/new features pending, but I don't wanna PR spamming :)

Many people who are eligible for busy.pay voting use it. And that's why the trend of busy.pay posts are pretty much same as the entire posts. But for busy.org, clearly the usage is declining probably due to too small vote, 8% of them are even zero! This is also not good for busy.org's curation reward.

Busy.org has 4,500 liquid STEEM in their account for a long time

As shown in the first figure, busy.org has 4,500 STEEM for a long time. 4,500 STEEM isn't big at all for entire Busy, so I think they may have even forgotten. If there is no plan to use it soon, why not powering up to give some actual reward for precious newbies these days. They're our future :) With more than 5K SP, at least there is no dust vote anymore.

Conclusion

Busy (https://busy.org) provides generous voting so that many people still have some incentive to write on Steemit. But some users (mostly newbies) receive too small votings, sometimes even zero worth. So busy.org postings are decreasing. If Busy powers busy.org up a little bit, many newbies will benefit from it.

Tools and Scripts

  • SQL query (Note that I only used finalized voting data by using created < last_payout, so the actual number of posts can be more, as explained in [Analysis] May need vote dust threshold again This provides one good natural random sampling.)
SELECT created, TxVotes.author, TxVotes.permlink, TxVotes.weight, Comments.active_votes
FROM TxVotes JOIN Comments ON (TxVotes.author = Comments.author AND TxVotes.permlink = Comments.permlink)
WHERE TxVotes.voter = 'busy.org'
    AND DEPTH = 0
    AND created < last_payout
    AND created BETWEEN '2018-9-27' AND '2018-12-20'
ORDER BY created ASC
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(14,7))
ax2 = ax.twinx()
rspine = ax2.spines['right']
rspine.set_position(('axes', 1.1))
ax2.set_frame_on(True)
ax2.patch.set_visible(False)
fig.subplots_adjust(right=0.7)

df['num_post'].plot(ax=ax, style='C1-')
df['num_paypost'].plot(ax=ax, style='C0-', secondary_y=True)
df['num_allpost'].plot(ax=ax2, style='C2-')

ax2.legend([ax.get_lines()[0], ax.right_ax.get_lines()[0], ax2.get_lines()[0]],
           ['busy.org','busy.pay','all'], bbox_to_anchor=(0.98, 0.98))
ax.set_xlabel('')
ax.set_ylabel('busy.org')
ax.right_ax.set_ylabel('busy.pay')
ax2.set_ylabel('all')

Relevant Links and Resources

Here is my recent Utopian contribution for Busy projects

and 3 pull requests, waiting for review. (My Github: https://github.com/economicstudio)

ps. Special thanks to Busy team: @ekitcho, @sekhmet, @jm90mm (let me know if there are more, I found you guys through github)

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Hi @blockchainstudio

Thanks for the contribution to @utopian-io.

Its interesting to see busy.org posts decline, faster than the 2 you have compared against. It would have been nice to see a selection of other front-ends, and a bit of work on analyzing who (if anyone) is gaining a market share.

It's a shame busy's vote is now kicking out so much dust, but this is where we are at currently.

Overall, I think the analysis lacks a little depth, and is doesn't really add too much more than recent work on the topic.

Thanks again, happy new year!

Asher [CM - Analysis]

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To view those questions and the relevant answers related to your post, click here.


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[utopian-moderator]

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Thank you for your review, @abh12345! Keep up the good work!

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Hi @abh12345, thank you for your review and sorry for my late reply. Yes, this is just for that one message (powerup), so I didn't go into the details. Seems busy team isn't active these days, unfortunately. My 4 PRs are waiting for reviews :) I feel like I'm working for busy :) thanks.

Summary in Korean: busy.org (busy.pay말고)가 보팅을 너무 적게 해줘서 (busy.org보팅대상자 중) busy를 쓰는 사람이 줄어들고 있습니다. 참고로 busy.pay를 쓰는 사람의 포스팅 수의 감소는 전체 포스팅 감소랑 비슷한 반면 busy.org만 더 크게 감소중입니다 (이부분이 나름 핵심 포인트). 계좌에 장기방치된 스팀 파워업해서 뉴비를 위해 보팅해주면 어떻겠냐는 취지의 글 입니다.

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좋은 취지의 글입니다. busy, jjangjjangman 처럼 고정으로 보팅 받을수 있는 보상이 많아진다면 신규 유저가 들어올 가능성이 더 많아지겠지요?

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@steembasicincome이란게 있더라고요. steem-ua개발자가 운영하는 것 같기도 한데 저도 아직 시스템을 잘 모르겠어요. 일단 가입은 한 상태입니다. 250임대했는데 아주 하루에 0.01씩 오르는 것 같네요ㅎㅎ 뭐 계속 올라만 준다면야ㅎㅎ

lightsteem은 최근 댑 분쟁을 지켜보면서 잠시 미루기로 했습니다. 저도 좀 바쁘기도 해서 새로운 걸 시작하면 초반에 신경 쓸 일도 많을 것 같기도 하고. 그리고 현재 댑으로 다 임대가 되면서 일반 글쓰는 사람, 보팅이 더더욱 줄어드는 추세인데 차라리 그 추세를 더 경험하고^^ 필요하다 느껴질때 하는게 좋겠다는 생각도 한편듭니다^^ 오늘 하루 잘 보내시고 새해 복 많이 받으세요~

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lightsteem 프로젝트는 현재 상황을 천천히 지켜보다가 시작하는게 좋겠네요. 그리고 제가 모르는 프로젝트가 많군요.ㅎㅎ 덕분에 또 하나 알아갑니다.
새해복많이 받으세요.

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곰돌이가 @anpigon님의 소중한 댓글에 $0.018을 보팅해서 $0.005을 살려드리고 가요. 곰돌이가 지금까지 총 2364번 $29.581을 보팅해서 $29.474을 구했습니다. @gomdory 곰도뤼~


@blockchainstudio님 곰돌이가 6.4배로 보팅해드리고 가요~! 영차~

짱짱맨 호출에 응답하여 보팅하였습니다.

Hi @blockchainstudio!

Your post was upvoted by @steem-ua, new Steem dApp, using UserAuthority for algorithmic post curation!
Your UA account score is currently 4.259 which ranks you at #2692 across all Steem accounts.
Your rank has improved 1 places in the last three days (old rank 2693).

In our last Algorithmic Curation Round, consisting of 204 contributions, your post is ranked at #84.

Evaluation of your UA score:
  • Some people are already following you, keep going!
  • The readers like your work!
  • Good user engagement!

Feel free to join our @steem-ua Discord server

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