_{UFC Featherweight champion Max 'Blessed' Holloway steps in (at short notice) for the injured Tony Ferguson to take on the formidable Khabib Nurmagomedov for the Lightweight belt at UFC223}

Unexpected foes

Sometimes Sport conspires towards certain outcomes. Take the Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz rivalry. The 'Conor-Nate rivalry was not borne through genius match-making. The then Featherweight Champion, McGregor was set to make his first appearance in the 155lb division against Lightweight Champion Rafael dos Anjos. It was a much anticipated event; a bit like the fight between Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov. However ten days before that fight dos Anjos broke his foot and Nate Diaz was the drafted in as a replacement.

It turned out to be a match made in competitive heaven. Both men gave no quarter in the pre-fight build-up and after weathering some heavy blows in the first round Nate rallied to sink in a rear naked choke on McGregor in the second to pull off a shock win and (temporarily at least) derail the McGregor 'hype-train.'

The McGregor- Diaz was a fight thrown together last minute to save the 196 card. It ended elevating not just the status of both fighters (McGregor won a lot of plaudits for the way he handled the defeat), it also pushed the UFC brand to the next level. They were able to do a rematch which McGregor won and a trilogy fight between the pair is still one of the most anticipated bouts in combat sport, despite neither being that active in the last couple of years.

Unlikely opponents

Saturday's UFC Lightweight title fight has all the ingredients for another unlikely and potentially lucrative rivalry. Like UFC196, UFC223 will see two fighters who really have no business being in the same Octagon square off in a main event.

Saturday April 7th 2018 was supposed to be the date that we'd finally see Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov settle their differences in the ring, only this time for the UFC Lightweight title.

The pair had been scheduled to fight three times previously. Nurmagomedov was forced to withdraw twice and Ferguson once. This Saturday was all set to be the day we get to crown arguably the best 155lb fighter on the planet. However in a bizarre twist, on April's Fools day no less, Tony Ferguson blew out his knee tripping over a wire during a media engagement.

UFC President turned the the 145lb Champion, Max Holloway. Holloway obliged and took the fight.

A fight against Nurmagomedov is a daunting prospect for anyone let alone someone he usually fights in the weight-class below. Nurmagomedov will be a prohibitive favourite, and rightly so. Nurmagomedov is also on the brink of becoming a global star. His stock is huge in his native country, Russia. He is waiting on the breakout performance that makes him a crossover fighter.

The money fights

Despite the market value of Nurmagomedov, the best outcome for the UFC would be for Holloway to pull off the upset. That would open the floodgates to a slew of lucrative fights and rivalry. A Khabib-Holloway rematch will be one people want to see. A McGregor- Holloway rematch would be huge. Holloway- Ferguson would be another big one.

With a win over Nurmagomedov, Holloway will move to the very top of the pound-for-pound list and a two weight Champion to boot. All of a sudden the Featherweight division becomes a marquee division. Imagine the hype around Holloway- Brian Ortega title fight? Ortega's stock is high after a highlight reel knockout of Frankie Edgar. Ortega's elite level Jiu Jitsu brings a unique set of challenges for Holloway. With Holloway being a 'Champ Champ' the profile of that fight will go through the roof.

Surely Max cannot do it?

The question is can Max Holloway pull off one of the biggest upsets in mixed martial arts. Don't be so sure he can't.

There is no doubt Max Holloway is a special fighter. Since losing to Conor McGregor in August 2013 Holloway has gone 12 fights unbeaten. As impressive as his wins has been his improvement as a fight. There is no doubt Holloway is a fighter at the top of his game.

If you'd have told me after his loss to Wonderboy Thompson at Welterweight that Robert Whittaker would move up to Middleweight and blow away the likes of Derek Brunson before going on to KO Jacare Souza and win the title against Joel Romero I'd have laughed at you.

Whittaker is proof that smaller fighters can take there skill set up a division and not only compete but dominate.

It is worth noting that Jacare and Romero are decorated wrestlers and grapplers. However Whittaker was able to keep the fight standing and implement his gameplan. Something Holloway will need to do if he is going to secure the title win over Khabib.

How does Max do it?

For Max to win, he must fight in a counterintuitive way. He must backup Nurmagomedov up with the jab, force Khabib to lunge and over-reach and counter him with hard punches. When they clinch, he must avoid being against the fence. And his takedown defence will need to be a-plus to either stop Khabib's takedown or make it very difficult for the Russian to achieve them.

Holloway must expose Khabib's relative lack of footwork and control the range and distance. Holloway is taller fighter with the reach advantage. If he is taken down he must keep Khabib in full guard and be active off his back - dare I say he must be Tony Ferguson like off his back!

It's hard to tell where Max's bottom game is at because he hasn't been taken down for four years. If his bottom game has improved as much as other aspects of his game it may not be easy work for Khabib even if he does take Max down.

Plan B

However the size and strength advantage of Khabib suggests that most of all Holloway must survive long enough to get Khabib thinking about a plan B.

We all know Khabib's plan A. Pressure you on the feet. Grab hold of your body. Persist with the takedown attempts, grapple you to the ground and maul you.

Max needs to do what 25 of his previous opponents have failed to. Force Khabib into plan B. Many will point to the Gleison Tibau for an indication of how Khabib can lose his way and lacks a plan B if he doesn't take you down.

We know Max can move to plan B, plan C and plan D if he has to. The question is does he (or anyone 155lb and under) have an answer to Khabib's plan A.

We'll find out on Saturday. I for one will be watching with interest.