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RE: Common Mistakes in Forecasting
Interesting post.
The share / stock market is full of analysis tools that can basically "crystal ball" the future.
The big question I have is "do these tools apply to crypto markets"
I suspect the crypto marks is different, in nature and performance as well as volatility.
Time will tell
Stock market is certainly easier to predict since it's usually trending up (due to stupid monetary policies, leverage, QE, you name it).
Crypto markets have a trend for now, but its only 7 years old, so I's certainly not a robust model.
I agree crypto is new & volatile, & that makes it great for day traders perhaps.
The stock market on the other hand is over inflated in every direction IMHO
Trump keeps going wow wow wow, I keep saying ow ow ow :-)
The P/E and all the fundamentals I have ever learned / studied point to a bigger than '29 and then add in the speed of computers compared to '29 or even '08, it is going to be huge.
I don't know when, but it will be soon. IMHO
maybe crypto petro or maybe iran-russia oil maybe some other trigger, but soon.....
so relatively, crypto is 'safe' juts hodl is enough IMHO
But I'm just an old fart, been there done that around the block a few times but what do I know.? But I do sense a certain amount of 'controlled' media that has been going on :-)
Time will tell.
Yes, volatility is usually associated with predictability, a static sideways market is more likely to be just random noise than a swinging market, so that should be easier to predict.
As for the stock market, it's economically inevitable for it to crash, but I don't think it's politically viable, so they will just keep pumping it up, so I think the endgame will be hyperinflation of the USD, perhaps hyperinflation of all fiat currencies at the same time since the ECB and other major central banks have huge exposure to the dollar as well, if it goes south, all of them go south.
I agree, one down all down!
I also think sooner than later.
Time will tell.
No, in the case of a hyperinflation the stock market would skyrocket, but that would be just an illusion of wealth since the currency would fall quicker than the stock market rising. Thus your true pruchasing would would go down no matter what you would do (except if you'd find a market that would go up quicker than the fiat would fall, perhaps cryptos).
It would be an illusion of wealth. In fact right now, most of the stock market growth is inflation, the net growth may be negative.
It's not in the USA since the USD is a global reserve currency, but in other countries the stock market growth is effectively smaller than the true inflation rate. So most people are losing money day in day out.
I am talking about BUY & HOLD strategies. Like buying an index.
Of course that is the basic expectanc of the stock market, but with some careful analysis it might be possible to outperform that with either good stock picks or higher frequency trading of the index with leverage.
Interesting thoughts. Thank you.