Retrospective. My technical analysis: the goods, the bads and the uglies.

Hi, folks!

Recently I have posted 2 trading ideas about the BTCUSD behavior. Now I would like to make a retrospective analysis of these two mutually exclusive forecasts

#1

And #2

And what we have now?
'
Both ideas are depicted on that chart.
Yellow line and the vertical "fibo reversal" line represent idea #1
The A-B-C movement is corrective wave taken from idea #2

The most important and notable difference is the direction chosen after the "fibo reversal". #1 is up & #2 is down.
Why did I decide, that the price should go up? The harmony of the waves has just enchanted me...
Take a look at that!

So cool and logical movements in the trading corridor. It just cannot be false I thought, need more support in other theory. Yes yes... Waves. Wave 1 and 2 can be the same size I thought. Match! Yes! True. Push "post". Emotions.

We are in the corrective phase and that is obvious and... that's what was telling 2 days ahead.

What am I trying to say? Yes, there is harmony and beauty in trading, but we should not forget about the various happenings, that can take place. About the variety of the happenings.

I have seen the Fibonacci line (vertical) crossing with trend line (Wave 2 on #1 or C on #2) also crossing the resistance line. The more support from the various points of views of theories - the higher probability of the happening. And the happening here is not a wave 2 or bounce, but strong price movement or other wards trend break. Up or down. Writing the #1 idea I did not pay enough attention to the possibility of breaking the support line.

The idea of that post is to write down the goods, bads, and uglies of my analysis.

The goods: the trend line found, the fibo point found, the major wave direction found (correction phase), the support line found.
The bads: my wish to find the proof for the beautiful idea has blinded the logic.
The uglies: I did not match 2 pieces of the puzzle looking directly at them.

Lesson learned: not to look for the support of the beautiful idea because beauty is enchanting. Rather be critical and scale the chance. That is a key to the risk management.

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