Predicting the future of Steem
Today I was in a customer session and one of my clients was talking a little about the uncertainty of her job future as an internal project is coming to an end. She is close to retirement and was saying that her hope was that she would be able to make it through the next 3-4 years to reach her minimum cut off age. She has been working for the company for many years, is highly knowledgeable and skilled and is considered an asset. It is interesting that even though I asked her prediction she was unwilling to give one because she said, there are just too many variables involved.
Too many variables. How many do you think there are influencing and affecting the price of Steem and the larger crypto market? Can anyone accurately predict what the banks are going to do with their institutional investment funds, does anyone know which of the 2500 current projects are going to crash and burn or, what kinds of new ones are going to come into the marketplace to compete? This isn't just about Steem.
The price of crypto at the moment is almost completely detached from the reality of a project yet people still use it as an indicator and an example of how well a project is performing. Steem is one of the most visible of all the projects out there as not only are the transactions being logged on the chain, but all of the conversations had by the community about steem are there also. Is that a positive or a negative do you think?
Does it matter for speculators that are just looking for a pump and dump on a coin before moving onto the next? Do the many automated trading service bots care at all all what is happening on Steem or are they just doing what they do regardless of what anyone says about it?
For me, I like to set myself some trading points where I would be willing to trade a bit of Steem for something else and, I am looking higher than the last highs as I think that there is so much potential value in Steem through what it offers and potentially could offer users that it is almost a guarantee that it will hit new highs. I know, there are no guarantees but for Steem to be a 15 dollar coin, it only needs to double the market cap it hit at the ATH of 1.7 billion.
While 1.7 billion sounds like a lot, is it? Didn't Whatsapp sell for 19 billion once upon a time? Yes, that sold because it gave facebook access to user data, something that we are willing to give them for free since it is all available on the blockchain but, what do we offer investors?
Not that we are selling a centralized business but there are a lot of possibilities that could be built upon Steem and with zero fees and 3 second transactions, the ability to leverage the blockchain for various purposes is quite high. But, while there is investment opportunity to be had, what is likely to really make Steem valuable is the community aspect and while that is close to non-existent now, when that institutional money pours into crypto, the interest it generates globally is going to make people look and see what all the fuss is about. With all the risk of speculation coins, a utility coin that can be earned effectively for free is going to be a very attractive entry point for normies who don't want to either risk or learn.
It is impossible to really predict though as there are so many variables that are, could and will come into influence outcomes but I am putting my Steem where my mouth is in the fact that I am powering it up, not down. For me, I don't think that this community relies on steemit Inc but I also don't think that they are willing to sell their stake and reputation for so little when so close to having the institutions coming in.
As always, I could be wrong but I have a feeling that when it comes to greed, the value of the stake they have now is not high enough to trigger their sell monster an I take the stance that like many I know who have to sell for various reasons, each sell they have made low, they have felt. Wrong is not something I am scared to be though, I am not often so far off the ball that I am completely wrong. There are always first though, so don't listen to me.
Your life, your decisions.
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]
Great points. The current metrics used to measure blockchain value are extremely flawed.
People thought transaction volume was critically important because of Bitcoin's scaling issues. Now exchanges are faking their volume and so are DPOS chains because it's free to do so. Now the metric means nothing. There is no way to measure "quality" volume over the white noise.
People think market cap matters, yet any coin could 10x at any moment. Does that mean the project just got ten times better on a fundamental level? No.
People have the urge to oversimplify complicated spaces in an attempt to understand and tame them. The problem is that this technology will not be tamed. It is permissionless. The best devs out there don't care about price action at all.
Steem will be a great success if only because it is slightly less complicated than other chains.
Which one is going to look more terrifying to new users:
Send 1000 Steem to @edicted.
Send 0.1 BTC to 1BvBMSEYstWetqTFn5Au4m4GFg7xJaNVN2
"Don't forget, if you send your money to the wrong place you lose everything."
In addition, when people find out they only have to wait 3 seconds instead of 10 minutes... This is a big deal because people freak out during that ten minutes where it looks like their money has disappeared. Zero fees means people can break a transaction up into pieces without feeling like they are wasting money on block producers.
Compound this with the fact that Steem is much harder to steal and we have decentralized account recovery and it's easy to see that we really have something special on a fundamental level. The "paid to ____" feature is really just icing on the cake at this point.
Transfers always freak me out as there is pretty much no recourse for error.
There are so many positives on Steem that it is incredible that so many are negative about it, I guess it is entitlement.
Indeed, people are incredibly entitled and impatient and afraid and living in total scarcity. Just wait until the bulls come back... people will be freaking out and making the same damn mistakes. They'll just be making them on the opposite side of the spectrum.
A world of polarized minds acting the same at each pole.
Ya I have only been on here a little under a year and I am impressed all the time for all the things Steem can do. It has the most user friendly platform and so much to do. You can play games @darklands @steemmonster, you can try you hand at writing @bananafish @gardengnomepubs @freewritehouse, you can show off your art. You can just talk with friends. Stay up with news from around the world given to by people in that part of the world. And for getting to do all this they pay you. Instead of you paying them.
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I think that the news is going to be a growing thing here in times to come with dedicated apps for it where people can share stories and add their own comments, pics, links from the events themselves.
A part of me still believes so much in steem, that is why I remain active in spite of all the problems steem is facing.
I have no issues with Steem at this point.
Power up mean you are dedicate for the long term of the platform. :)
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I have no need to do other at this point so, to the moon or the gutter.
I'm powering it up too! ;)
🐶 HARF HARF! 🐾
Go hard or go home, as they say :)
All these variables make for a fun ride if nothing else. I'm invested not for the money but because there still seems to be so much going on and I want to be a part of it whatever the outcome.
It is worth it just to be part of the conversations about the future I think. Many don't realise that they are sitting on the cutting edge of the future.
While I think that most of us are biased at this point given our continued engagement and entangled relationship with the ecosystem, there is also the fact that the blockchain has done what its supposed to do and much more. I never envisioned collecting digital cards and playing them with people around the world a year ago! I never thought of getting reward for my fitness activities either! While there will always be variables, I think that we need to consider our own individual variables considering we make our journey here how we want.
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I think this is a big part of the attachment here. The more it happens with apps and communities the better it will become.
Yep, people take a lot of the possibilities and their actual results here for granted.
I think the crypto Market is too manipulated. I would be very surprised if we see a serious rise in the price of steem. Thanks for sharing @tarazkp
You'd be surprised if there is a serious rise? There is going to be a serous rise to come. All of crypto is going up just about I think.
Hello dear friend @tarazkp
I totally agree with you when you say:
I believe in people and their interaction. My participation in steemit is based precisely on that.
As long as there are people willing to contribute quality content and exchange ideas and interests, the community will be strengthened.
This represents the true value that steemit has to offer now and in the future.
All best, Piotr.
It actually doesn't take many to make it worthwhile, the few can add a lot. Most likely the 80/20 rule comes into play with content volume, and out of that, it likely comes into play with the quality. ~5% of active accounts likely make up most of the quality content.
Thx for your kind reply @tarazkp. I appreciate it a lot. Always.
In my opinion, regardless of the price of Steem in the future, it's still a wonderful deal because with SP interest over time, author and curation rewards including rewards from delegations, Steem earnings could produce something like 6 or 8 percent APR. This is much better than simply holding it in the bank with 0 APR that they have these days.
Yes, there is risk of market fluctuations but in the long run I think we will be all right because the fundamentals of the project are very solid.
This holds true if the price stays this low in the future. But if the future prices increase, people who power up now will be very happy.
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It is better return than any bank offers over time if one can buy in at a lowish point of course. Some bought at 6-7 and held all the way down.
I think there are going to be people who are happy and others who are bitter.