I should have hodled
I have been known to burn the candle at both ends as I am a nightowl who is the most creative in the wee hours of the morn. I think I used the word "wee" because of @meesterboom and his Scottishness that I just voted on. I don't even drink beer but I do like Mangoes.
While the title suggests I am going to be talking about crypto, I "might not" as the idea actually came from the ending of winter time which means, I lose an hour of sleep tonight because people think moving the clocks makes a difference in a country where there is literally a two week period of darkness in the winter and a two week period where the sun doesn't set. Well, a little north from me there is anyway, but it isn't far off that here.
What I should have hodled was the hour of sleep I supposedly gained 6 months or so ago as it began to get darker. I find daylight saving time as quite a ridiculous concept and the most nonsense part of it is that in Australia, not all states change time. Queensland (Brisbane) which normally has the same time as New South Wales (Sydney) doesn't shift but South Australia (Adelaide) which is normally 30 minutes behind does shift and goes 30 minutes ahead of Queensland, even though it is in a band to the west of Qld. Silly.
Buuuuuutttttt....
Since I am loosely on the topic of holding, I wonder what people currently consider is the maximum price of Steem. What do you think? I guess one question to find out this would be,
At what price per coin would you be willing to sell your entire Steem holdings?
And then I wonder if one would be willing to take a gamble on that high. For example, if someone had 1000 Steem right now and said they would be happy to sell everything at 10 dollars because that is what they consider the highest it can go, would they be willing to take a position that it won't one day go to twenty dollars and pay a penalty if it did? Say, if when it hit 10 I agreed to buy the 1000 at 10 dollars each but if it hit 20 the person would have to buy the 1200 back from me. If that was the highest they believed it would go, then they have no risk of ever having to buy it back.
Obviously there is a lot of uncertainty around what the price of any of this funny internet money could reach but it is also interesting that people don't really do the math on what it could be considering the way things can happen in the world. For example, no one really expected Whatsapp to sell for 19 billion dollars to Facebook but, it happened. What would Steem be valued at if 19 billion was injected in?
Well, there is 305 million Steem or thereabouts so
19 billion/ 305 million
= ~62 dollars per Steem.
Seems unlikely? While 19 billion sounds like a massive amount, it really isn't so much under certain conditions and when it comes to social communities, it is very, very possible. On top of this, only 25% of the supply on the exchanges needs to move to push prices skyward. But, the biggest factor is that it is decentralized. Why is this important?
Well, because of the nature of Steem and the way it is open-sourced so that anyone can build upon the blockchain, it doesn't have to be sold for 19 billion at all, it just requires a lot of businesses and usecases to start using and making compelling experiences for a large number of users.
There could be a massive amount of small businesses interacting on the blockchain that bring in users and uses, many medium sized enterprizes, and a few large corporations. Add on top of this gaming, education, transfer banking, gambling, infrastructure and a host of other interactions and transactions, and, that 19 billion of economic mass could rack up pretty fast. And of course, as popularity and value build, more popularity and value get attracted.
But, who knows. If however Steem did hit 62 dollars however, with 40,000 Steem my account would be worth 2.48 million dollars and my upvote would be in the vicinity of 150 STU x 10 per day. You think I would be upvoting the people who sold all of their value at 10? Who knows, they might have some great content worthy but, if not.... tumbleweeds.
I think it is funny to think of as while I do know I have put in a great deal of work for that 40k in Steem, is it worth 2.5 million? It doesn't really matter because if the price of Steem does hit that 62, it will be worth 2.5 million. That value could be in my hands or, in the hands of whoever I sold it to if I sold it earlier. It would be them using the 1500 STU a day, 10500 a week or 550k STU a year upvote value.
Lol, yeah, it is ridiculous to think about... Don't mind me.
What is going to be incredibly interesting in the next ten years or so is that all of these posts are going to be on an immutable blockchain like never before and the "10,000 Bitcoin for two pizza" stories are going to be running rife. It is very possible that this post or the ones I have written similar to it are going to make a mockery of me if it all collapses but, if it doesn't?
It won't really matter at the point Steem booms because essentially, all the hodlers will be in some kind of stratosphere above in terms of value as at that 62 dollars, 1000 Steem is worth 62k and there are plenty of people with a lot more than that. Literally, thousands.
Like was said last night on the other post. All of this value so far which is literally, worth 135 million dollars today has come out of thin blockchain, created from nothing but an idea and some people to start supporting it.
That in itself is pretty darn incredible.
Time for sleep but if you were wondering about the sexy photos of a candle, I took them tonight and wanted to see how a red candle would photograph. I think the entry image is an interesting view and is reminiscent of an eye - likely the same color as my own in the morning after missing an extra hour of sleep. Sleep deprivation is a method of torture, but if it is self-inflicted?
Goodnight.
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]
I will take a very small amount out as a treat and that is it. The vote value is what I find interesting as it is hard to ignore. Circle jerking will obviously happen but if you all stick together doing what we do now everyone will benefit immensely.
The everyone benefit is something that many don't consider as when those future streams are created, it will be across multiple people.
I look at it the same way as it you hit the lottery do you take the whole amount or payment over time.
You make more money if you select over time. Same as steem because if you use your vote to increase your stake you make more Steem or money.
I would hope to never spend the principle . The smart person reinvest a percentage of his interest and use the rest for needs while saving for wants.
Can you imagine having 30-40 years to invest in crypto for retirement.
this is something I don't think people consider. They want it now. There are 20 year olds who are going to struggle to find work at 40 but if they put some of their entertainment budget into crypto, they will be fine for life by that stage. Short-term thinkers, and why those with age and experience will do better with their investments.
I would have a hard time ever powering down, no matter what the price is! It would be fun to have enough liquid Steem each week that I could spend some occasionally, though!
It would be fun to have enough liquid Steem each week that I could spend some occasionally, though!
Just think that if liquids coming in were 10 Steem and Steem was 10 dollars, every week a trip to the movies and a half decent meal could be spent with a loved one. Depending on where one lives, that might be a month's salary too.
I don't think I could last much beyond 26 dollars without selling. Maybe not all of it though, keep some in the tank!
Oh God, the clocks!? I forgot, it's rubbish when you have kids who get up as early as heck regardless waah!
At SteemFest a few of us were walking along and were positing the price on the next big run and 26 was where I guessed it could be under certain conditions. Not my area but since you and I both have that number, it can't be a coincidence and must be pure future fact.
I wouldn't sell all ever.
In that case it blatantly has to be a future fact that has seeped through the ether. Hurrah!!
Yeah, it would be madness to sell all!
The funny thing is though is that unless you were leaving the platform you really wouldn't have to sell any. Given that post rewards would increase in line with the steem price, obviously it's not linear as people's voting habits get funny when the price rises but you would at least be looking at anything around about 50 times your current post payout and that's daily. there would almost be no need to start selling off your stake. Although people do and have in those circumstances but where are they now and where will they be the next time the price rises?
Interesting. But of course everything is a gamble. How many hours of post writing did you spend to earn these 40k steems?
Life is all about making choices.
Thanks for an interesting read.
Posted using Partiko Android
I should answer more realistically.
For about the last two years I have been putting in an average of 3.5 posts similar to this a day, 7 days a week and haven't missed a day posting since sometime around summer 2017. I probably average close to a full-time job hours on it for writing each week. More for comments.
Gosh... That's dedication!
Posted using Partiko Android
If I do the calculations and carry the 1... umm.. a shit tonne.
I cash out weekly to live on this steem money now. I have been doing this since Dec 2017.
I blog and comment like crazy and use other strategies to try to increase my sp each week even though I power down. I know there might by a big increase later and that would be great, but now I need to pay my bills and eat. I am not alone in this. I know of others who do the same.
I do not see myself stopping taking the money at any price, so if the price was higher, I would just be more comfortable. If it went into the stratosphere like you imagine, I might have some more options, and this would also be a great turn of events.
The more people here the better. At this point, with the majority value held by so few, I prefer not to have all my eggs in this basket, but I have stopped most of my other online activities to focus here. Hopefully, if there is a big increase, we will also become more distributed in the value. Time will tell if that happens.
Right now a lot of people delegate their sp so that their vote is worth very little even though they could vote more. How many more will do that if the price goes higher? Passive income is big business here, and manual curation is a job.
And yes, enough rest and sleep is critical to health. I pay the price when I do not get enough of those.
Everyone has their needs as do I but for me, I work in other things so I can use this as an investment vehicle and a much more engaging form of entertainment and skill development along the way.
THe problem if not building SP is that one day, the votes might not arrive no matter how much hustle put in.
I haven't had enough in years. One day it will arrive.
If only high sp holders can get votes, how would new people ever succeed here?
But not only high SP holders can get votes. Many people who have significant SP now started from zero.
I was referring to this comment you made:
I am not talking about it going to high so holders, I am talking about the competition if there are millions of members and many of them full-time professional bloggers, streamers and content creators with the skills to market themselves on top.
That's a possibility. Few in that echelon have succeeded here to any level that I have noticed, but there might be some up and comers here now. This is a strange place unlike other places they do well at. A lot of those successful people do not interact elsewhere and can't do well here unless they do. You can't just drop your posts and run off.
they don't succeed here now because it isn't ready for them yet, it will be one day though which is why now is a good time to earn ;)
I don't think that there is a price really at which point I would power down and sell out completely. However, there is definitely a level at which point I would stop powering up or reinvesting my liquid. At 10 liquid Steem earnings per week and a $10 Steem price, that would give me a hundred dollars a week to pay down my fiat debts and ease the "real world" financial pressure on my family.
Posted using Partiko Android
Hehe, I just used these figures above :D
I agree but I thought that number was going to be 10k SP
I am pretty confident I will always hold a part of my family's portfolio and hopefully most of it @tarazkp.
This is my plan too and keep pushing liquids out to others to do the same.
I have always said that I would sell once I get to Orca if the amount above 50k staked makes a difference in my lifestyle. I would HODL that 50k and benefit from it forever and hand it over to my daughter some day with pride. When she asks what is this internet money, I will tell her to check it out herself as it is all there on the blockchain!
Posted using Partiko iOS
The difference in lifestyle thing is where I am headed. One area that would do that is to get down to zero. At that point I have that extra to invest back in also.
She will understand it already and will know of the legend that was 2020 ;)
I did probably still spend my reward and leave my sp alone as I am doing now. I do think anything would change for me really except the amount I would be getting for each coin I sell.
I have never been able to understand the reasoning behind the daylight saving thing but I have never had reason to save daylight. In my world, it is morning when it is dawn and evening when it is dusk. 12am starts dawn as far as I am concern and 6pm is evening enough for me. I don't even understand what I am saying. I sleep, I wake.
I think this will depend on how high that price goes. Life could get a little less stressed and needing, at least for me.
Time is an illusion we have created to understand movement. the movement happens regardless of what numbers we apply to it.
Exactly. We seek to control it and it is just impossible.
Less stress and less needs would definitely be a part of the increase in price. It would be good to afford some things.