Buy when there's FUD in the streets

At this point of the crypto journey, there is so much uncertainty that no one can really know what is going to work or, what is going to fail yet, there are plenty of people willing to put their opinions out there. While many have no skin in the game, some do and those that do generally have more influence on others than those who do not and for the most part, we are followers by nature - even if early adopters consider themselves something other.

We are all crypto early adopters yet, that doesn't necessarily mean that we are all the same, that we have the same ideals, skills and will to work toward our individual or collective future. Being in crypto also doesn't automatically mean that the lessons learned from the centralized world were cast aside and new behaviors built. For the most part, most people haven't likely changed much at all, despite their protestations otherwise.

Lately, there has been a lot of speculation over "Steemit 2" EOS' Steem killer called MEOS and there are quite a few noteworthy Steemians willing to make the switch, but - why? Humans by nature act on incentive near exclusively so that means there is incentive for them to move over that they consider outweighs the incentive to stay on Steem.

There is almost a billion EOS in supply at the moment, nearing their max but, how many people are willing to buy into EOS today? Who holds that near billion? Well, there is the 75% of it that resides in 100 wallets of course but the rest? Let's do a little basic math.

Steem price is 33 cents and has a supply of 319,000,000.
If you have 100,000 STEEM today, it is worth 33,000 dollars and is 0.03% of the total supply.

If you take that 33,000 and buy EOS you can buy 6666 EOS coins, which is 0.000666% of supply.

That is 45x less stake in EOS than the Steem ecosystem.

Yes, there are still profits to be made, do you have 33k in Steem to spend on EOS?

That doesn't seem like a very good incentive, but that of course depends on when one bought. EOS went down very low at some point and into the 50 cent range while Steem was over double that price, and people were selling their Steem and stacking EOS high. The ones who stacked the most were of course the ones who had the most available to stack with, and those with the highest incentive to jump ship are of course those who already have another ship deck to land on. And, it is also in their best interest to convince as many people as they can to buy up at whatever price it currently resides to populate the platform.

Of course MEOS is probably unlikely to distribute EOS but, it is likely to distribute something and most likely, it is going to reward EOS holders with MEOS to get them started, as is common with this type of thing and similar to what BEOS is doing now with BTS. How much EOS do you hold to get started with? Are you going to buy more EOS to get the MEOS rain? How much - and is it going to be significant enough to offset the 75% owned in those 100 wallets or, the amounts that people who sold Steem to buy into EOS bought back in October 2017? Many of whom had benefited heavily from the early Steem distribution, already and were keen on backing another Larimer project by dumping their gains to buy-in.

I don't know what exactly they are going to do and it is far from my knowledge bank but, there looks like there is still going to be a distribution problem on EOS-based platforms unless they do something quite drastic, which means that those who have a lot of EOS now are going to lose benefits drastically too. Is that the plan? I can't imagine that those 100 wallets are going to want that to happen unless they have added incentive for it. Those 100 wallets are collectively worth 3.4 billion dollars today.

Then, there is the thing that the people who bought in two years ago are the same people who are here now talking about leaving Steem, the same people who have benefited from the distribution model but, it hasn't been enough, they want more gains. At this point, it is uncertain what it actually is going to be so the argument that they would move for better experience is invalid at this point and only becomes valid once that is proven, which is well after release. are they going to suddenly change their behavior once they are on EOS platforms or, do the same habits persist no matter where they are?

Fear, uncertainty, doubt. That is what the FUD acronym stands for. If the idea is that the distribution model is going to be better on MEOS, that means that all of those who bought in early can't get a 1:1 stake-weighted benefit for moving as i would already upset "fair" distribution, doesn't it? So then, what changes for all of those who don't own EOS other than they would be on a platform where distribution is controlled by people who are likely proven maximizers of their own stake and gains.

My logic in these things is probably not sound of course as I don't spend that much time learning about EOS as it has always been too complicated for me but, I am not sure where the benefits are other than through the hype of the coin to sell until reality sets in and, people are people once again. Those with a lot will generally always be able to buy in early to have more and those without will have to work their way up. Short gains are possible for both groups but the level of those gains are very different. The only way to really benefit from a position of without, is to build a foundation to build upon.

Keep jumping ships and eventually, all that is left is open water.

Who knows --- I just write stuff.
You can do what you want - your opinions are your own too.

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]