2040: 90% Of Traditional Jobs Eliminated
This is by far, the most dire employment forecast you have seen. Nothing I have read even comes close to this number.
Most projections are tens of millions of jobs going away due to automation. There are a few floating out there that say 1/3 of all jobs might be displaced. Whatever the numbers are, they are too low.
When I look at different forecasts, they tend to be done by economists, sociologists, or financial analysts. This explains why they are so far off....they have no comprehension of technology.
This is the element they miss. And it is the one that is going to devastate employment sector.
I will give a few technologies that we have today that are going to seriously impact the world we live in.
Blockchain: MIddlemen
To all those who are reading on STEEM, I probably do not need to explain this. For those who are unfamiliar with what is taking place in this industry, I will provide a few tidbits.
Blockchain is going to displace all those entities that act as middlemen (sorry to be sexist but middlepeople sounds odd). This is 90% of the financial arena, anything to do with shipping, supply chain management...basically anything that has to do with managing something from point A to point B.
While cyptocurrency gets the attention, blockchain is the real employment killer. The next phase of this technology is the establishment of decentralized organizations i.e. businesses that run on the blockchain without the input of people. This will eliminate many of those jobs that have to do with decision-making. All day-to-day decisions are programmed into the blockchain, rending people unnecessary.
Blockchain is still in its infancy yet it is exploding in 2018. Think back 5 years ago, to 2013, and tell me what was around. Bitcoin and Litecoin for the most part. Perhaps there were a couple of other chains. Bitshares I believe was 2014; Ethereum 2015; STEEM 2016.
That is a long way from where we are now. Hundreds of billions of dollars is being dumped into this industry. Most of your major companies are seeking to implement blockchain in some fashion. Why? Because it eliminates "middlemen" thus saving them money.
3D Printing-Making Stuff
I wrote about this a few times before. Most people are not aware of this and the threat it poses.
My guess is that 3D printing experiences an explosion similar to blockchain in 12-18 months. The industry is getting closer to that tipping point where it is ready to approach a huge growth phase.
3D printing is going to handle anything that is made. This includes manufacturing, construction, and the garment industry. It also has applications in the medical world.
Here is an example of how quickly things change in terms of estimates in the technological arena. I witnessed it with autonomous vehicles, solar, and 5G.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/25-of-dubai-s-buildings-will-be-3d-printed-by-2025/
The goal is for 25% of the city-state building in Dubai will be 3D printed by 2025. A year ago, their goal was 1/3 by 2030. This shows how quickly the pace of change is.
Another aspect of this article is that it reduces labor by 70%..now. What do you think the technology will do in 7 years? I am betting it reduces labor by 80%-90%.
This is what awaits the construction industry which, at least in the U.S., employs a ton of people.
We are seeing the same thing with cars, boats, and an assortment of other products. HP is even printing out replacement parts for its 3D printers. So yes, machines building machines is starting to take place.
Autonomous Vehicles-Moving Things
This is well covered so not much to say here.
In 20 years, there will be no transportation jobs in terms of driving, piloting, or sailing. Buses, cars, trucks, vans, ships, and planes almost all be autonomous.
An adjunct to this, the merchandise that is in these vehicles will be loaded, stacked, and pulled will be automated. That means all involved in delivery, warehouse, AND stocking will be gone.
Quantum-Research
This is one of the toughest to pinpoint since it is so new and it is still very uncertain. However, recent developments are showing that quantum computing is going to be attained. Whether it gets to the point of classical computing is a major question. Nevertheless, there are certain conclusions that are safe to draw.
Within 5 years, we will see quantum chemistry. There will be modeling that will reduce the amount of time to research new products. This will affect the drug industry along with the applied materials. Even if quantum never advances past this realm, 20 years from now we will see compounds created in nano-seconds.
This also will applies to things such as market, legal, and historic research. All can be done with quantum. Many of these jobs are already being eliminated with present computing capabilities.
Artificial Intelligence-Everything
Here we have the true game changer although it is not a particular technology. The name is simply a catchall phrase that encompasses a lot of things. AI has been around for decades. The formula that adds the columns in Excel is AI. Usually something is AI until it is used, then it has a name.
One of the biggest aspect of this is neural networking. Essentially, it is the pursuit of getting computers to think. Of course, thinking entails a lot since there are so many aspects to it. Computers already have the memory and processing power. Outside of that, they are rather limited. That is changing. As we come to understand the way "thinking" takes place, we are able to replicate it in computing.
The biggest factor in this is the speed of advancement. Moore's Law states that processing power doubles every 18-24 months (depending upon who you believe). I just read that AI is doubling every 3-4 months. How soon until it reaches the point where it is doubling every month? 2 year? 3 years? Whatever the time frame is, it will be a game changer.
AI (or software if you prefer), is already able to write scientific journals with a great deal of accuracy. While the present technology is stiff, in another couple years it will learn the nuances of how we talk and write. That means, in a decade, I will not be writing this post, software will. We can stretch that across most industries. A great deal of our music, literature, and video will be created and produced by AI.
These are just a few of the things taking place within the technology world that is overlooked by the non-techies who make the employment projects.
Why do I feel certain these will be used to destroy jobs?
The answer is because we live in a corporate world and, since the connection between capital and labor flipped, there is incentive for these companies to automate people out. While Wall Street is in charge, which will be for at least the next decade, increasing earnings is going to be the sole focus. This means that these technologies will be embraced since they reduce labor.
Employment in the largest industries, manufacturing, medical, construction, and financial, are going to be devastated over the next decade plus. My belief is that we are one recession away from these corporations forging ahead with the money to implement these technologies. Put them in a cycle where they have to tighten the belts because revenues fall and you will see technological solutions implemented.
We saw this in West Texas with the oil collapse in 2014. The drop in oil prices resulted in hundreds of thousands of people laid off. Over the next two years, technology was implemented that reduced the cost of a barrel of oil from $60 to $35. This also results in only half the workers being re-hired. Over 180K people were left without work.
And that happened over a two year period.
Expect to see this same thing spread to other industries. The only thing preventing it today is because Corporate America is fat, dumb, and happy. Watch those earning start to take a hit and the incentive will suddenly be in place.
And then the pace will be mind-boggling.
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I prefer the term parasite because this is more descriptive of what they are. It may come off as derogatory, but it is the unfortunate truth. Many don't even realize that their behavior or role in this world is either fundamentally parasitical or creative.
I can agree with you.
Whatever term used, they are unnecessary and that, unfortunately for supporters of this system, means that a large portion of the economy is going to be wiped out. They simply are not needed.
The financial arena is the first one to be hit in my view. We are already seeing the total upending of that sector. Of course, they are fighting the good fight...embracing what will ultimately destroy them.
Blockchain and technology allows us to see what is not necessary in the process and cut it out.
We are starting to see this very clearly.
Next step, the governments...wont it be fun to watch that arena entered. As you said, the last thing those jokers want is transparency.
We'll have to watch out for them trying to implement a form of government monero or zcash available only to bureaurats and transparent blockchain with KYC for everyone else.
That's a really good point. Goddamn they'll try.
This is the really exciting thing! I would love for you to write a whole piece on this.
BOOM. Like my landlord who bought my poor neighborhood and drives around it in his Mercedes. Can you imagine owning a Mercedes on the backs of poor people who struggle to pay your rent increase? Parasitic. Not contributing anything to society.
As entertaining as this is, I think you might be slightly too harsh on middlemen here... I think fundamentally they create relationships that might not have existed before... a factory might be too busy making stuff to go out and find retailers to sell it's stuff, so middlemen with the relationships help out... or realtors are the middlemen between a vendor and a buyer, but can also help negotiate the paperwork, laws, tips on improving for sale, etc. I'm super excited that we've already seen a house sell through an Ethereum Smart Contract, I really do hope that blockchain technology is able to streamline that massive headache of a process, but we still professionals to help us create the smart-contract if we've never done one before.
I'd love a 90% reduction of workforce to automation... let's just live by telling stories to each other and consuming content.
It's hard to capture a signal from noise with words that provide generalizations. Once a word is chosen, the nuances are lost, but I wanted to focus on a fundamental truth that some relationships which were necessary in the past, are no longer necessary. However, change will be hard for those who are used to the old ways.
That's okay though, those that can't embrace change will be left behind by those willing to learn, adapt and improve... the most annoying words I can hear are "... but that's how we've always done it.."
How I see people who aren't on the blockchain
Jobs are evaluated by the measurement
With all these advances, human touch is going to become more important.
People will be paid to add “human experience” to things.
And to tell stories... a masseuse who is a good listener might never be replaced...
Holy shit this boggles the mind.
Now we know why people are being so distracted and kept in ignorance while the movers and shakers are silently building this next-generation of a world.
Oh my God I really don't want to be a scummy underworld pleb in this NWO global society.
Need to be hella fucking creative, expressive, thoughtful or ingenius if we're going to able to compete, let alone survive outside of the basic-income smart grid.
I really, really don't want to be a slave in this system.
Then again the blueprints of this system have been drawn up a long time ago. I believe that people with creative abilities will always be able to prosper in this world.
In fact Hans Zimmer said that, "when the tallest building has been built and the most advanced technology has been created, there's always going to be room for someone to tell you a story"
Art gives me hope.
Well this has been a process that has been showing itself a long time now. Even since the 1950s people have had many chill relax jobs... Very good article. Clearly abundance will keep rising... But things really started to level up how fast things are going with the invention of the Steem Blockchain in 2016. When you realize how easy it was to cash out into other Cryptocurrency. Truly a paradigm shift!
Because of the Steem Blockchain you can write a comment spend 2 minutes on that and be rewarded super fast for it like 10 dollars. That is proof that nobody will be poor in the future. Since getting access to value will be so much easier since more capital will flow around in the system looking for a good cool investment. Everyone will become an investor in Earth from day 1 they are being born. Since it won't be so complicated to become involved. And it will be seen as obvious that everyone should be an investor.
I just came across this...
Cross painters off the list.
https://www.bloomberg.com/businessweek
that's pretty cool to know.....
crazy to think jobs are going to be disappearing in such fashion, but with the blockchain emerging at the forefront, NOBODY is going to be needed in these sectors you mention.
Even so the blockchain will be incorporated in the healthcare sector, as we are already beginning to see, which is going to help with privacy and patient confidentiality... these improvements are needed and necessary. Some jobs will be displaced with this, but not as many as in fields such as Logistics, automation, manufacturing, etc.
informative post, thanks for sharing @taskmaster4450
But new sectors will come.
Not really. There might be a few sectors created but most of them will be handled by AI.
There are few arenas that it will be penetrate in the next 20 years....
Which is fine...since cryptocurrency has the means to replace the incomes lost and people buying into the DAOs will provide them with an income.
Surely but even with that Man would want to engage with the world and would probably create new interesting sectors to work in! Since you have to do something in life. Just be lazy gets boring after 2 weeks haha.
You believe that man needs to work just to avoid being bored.
There are many other pursuits to engage upon that work up the scale of Maslow's hierarchy.
We work for sustenance...that is the basic essence of work. If someone wants to do something, that is up to them.
That is why cryptocurrency is so important. It makes the need to work disappear. It leaves people to pursue their passions...whatever they might be.
In this case I look at engagement with life = work. That will say it's a task that takes energy to create a certain task. Surely the need to do work will probably disappear as you say @taskmaster4450 but I still think that it will lead to many to actually do more work and do their passions so to say. Since I already do my passion it's very easy to forget about that other type of work that others have to do. That will say stuff they have no passion of doing.
But I'm sure that having most doing work will create the best stability in society so people can have some sort of meaning left. I don't understand people that have no passion but there are clearly many of them out there. Will be interesting to see how they will react when they have no need of doing some form of work.
As a future topic you may be able to write deeper about. A new world where all pursue their passion? It would be interesting to see you dive deeper into both an ideal utopian potential future and a potential dark future where people just don't care about anything anymore since all became so easy and meaningless.
Great post! I've been fascinated by this subject for years. AI, 3D Printing, Cloud computing and the blockchain are really what is causing a major shift. On one hand, there's technological progress and a higher standard of living, but on the other, there is job loss and a decreased standard of living.
The example that hits closest to home for me is day to day banking. Here in the UK I've witnessed the tellers disappear, almost overnight. Not sure if it's overall a good or a bad thing yet, but here is a graphic that might interest you:
Source
According to this, all human jobs will be replaced with full automation in a little over 120 years. I would say even sooner.
Here is a documentary your post reminded me of as well, you might have seen it:
Will Work for Free
Will Work For Free is a documentary by Sam Vallely on the subject of technological unemployment.
Kira
Grim and depressing, makes me glad I'm in blockchain though!
I am happier I have cryptocurrency.
That is the real equalizer.
A tokenized world means people get paid to live.