Are self-driving cars the future?

The list of things that have been predicted as impossible has been shrinking at an increasingly rapid rate. 

Most people see things that are difficult and assume they are impossible. 

We continue to find that if physics doesn’t explicitly limit something, it’s likely going to come to pass sometime. The moon? Been there. Test tube babies? Common. 

Artificial body parts? Coming along slow, but steady (humans are tough to experiment on).

Our advancements are such that we’re now having to correct our over-ebullient adoption of many of them.

 The industrial revolution set us on a path to modifying our ecosphere, leading to other, restorative, technologies that are equally poo-pooed. Our cannonball into the pharmaceutical world has likewise created a cloud of shrapnel composed of metabolic disorders, super bugs, and addiction (a fire we’re blindly fighting with fire) Now, we’re trying to pull ourselves out from under one of our number one killers: sudden deceleration trauma.

Let’s face it, if we could make cars ever safer, climbing that linear path toward mishap-free conveyances that anyone can operate, afford, and maintain, we’d likely be doing that.

 That’s not happening, though. These last 10 years are as safe as we’ve been in almost the last century, but we have continue to kill and maim at high rates. 

We’ve modified and improved every aspect of the vehicle save one: the operator. 

Until we do that, we’re going to continue to condemn millions every year to death or debilitation.

 Unfortunately, no one is willing to invest in better mandatory, periodic training and harsher penalties for transgressions (which is understandable when 75% of people consider themselves better-than-average drivers). When you look at the amount of resources being thrown at the computer side of the problem, it’s astounding that so many people are pessimistic about the outcome. 

We live in the age of miracles! Of course, we also live in the age of the Kardashians and Twitter trolls, so I can see how it might be easier to just assume the worst.

Since we don’t have very good auto-driving systems now, it’s easy to be blinded by the slow progress. 

This might be rooted in our view of the past. Progress has been going at a certain pace, so it’s natural so extrapolate that, making it look like a linear climb. Only, that’s not how progress works. 

It’s exponential. At every stage of our existence, we’ve accelerated going through the next stage.

 People in ancient Greece would likely fit in pretty well with those living in the 17th century, but our founding fathers would freak out if you dropped them into 1945.

 A couple decades ago my grandparents couldn’t even get their VCRs to stop flashing 12:00. Today, our kids don’t have to plan anything, because they can text and access maps in real time.

Auto driving is not only going to be “the future,” (echo-y voice), but it’s going to come quicker than most realize. Once cars can drive around on nice streets on clear days (meaning right now), they are going to really learn what driving is like in the real world. 

There may be times when the conditions are such that they have to pull over, but that’s only going to be because they are programmed better than we are and have a realization of the risks at every point in the drive. 

They aren’t going to pound a few beers and head home based on having done so dozens of times before.

 They aren’t going to forget to look left and just pull out because “no one’s ever on this road this early.” 

They aren’t going to have this inherent optimistic blind spot that we have (“I just assume that person coming at me sees me, too, and will stay in the other lane”).

But I love to drive (and I’m better than average at it). 

Of course, I don’t love to drive in stop-and-go, or bumper to bumper traffic, nor in poor conditions at night. 

I’d also like to have a beer when watching the game from the nice little brewery down the street and not walk home in the rain. 

It would also be good if I could just send the car to pick up my daughter from practice.

 Once folks get a taste of these aspects, auto-driving cars are going to be like cinnamon-maple pancakes with a side of bacon and sex. 

The adoption is going to be slow at first, like everything else, then rise rapidly, curtailing off toward the top as the hold-out Luddites pay to drive on private roads (which will pop up).

 As soon as the insurance expense climbs high enough, the few who don’t see the benefits will be economically forced in. 

Once legislation opens up the roads—which is already happening—and as cities vie for the obvious benefits of fewer fatalities, less traffic, and more productive citizens, we’ll see the sluice gates open and all the cool kids will be doing it.

As soon as I can get in my electric car and tell it to take me to get pancakes and sex, I’ll know I’m living in the future.