Do You Agree with These Predictions?
Image Source: Daily Mail
The Next 20 Years
Many of you will have read the interview with Dieter Zetsche (CEO at Daimler Benz AG) about what he thinks will happen in the next 20 years. I include a link HERE in case you haven't read it.
In this article I have picked two things I agree with and two things I don't agree with.
Things I agree will happen
- Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
Image source: DQIndia
I agree that this will happen because AI already defeated today's world best player at Go back in May 2017 for the second time. AI is a robot made by Google to play Go.
I think this shows that AI can analyze problems very efficiently and this will improve its understanding of the world.
Please correct me if you think I'm wrong!
- Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
Image source: PeculiarPurls
I agree with this because manufacturers are already well down the research road on this issue. Hybrid cars are paving the way by breaking down any prejudice felt by motorists. The main problem I see hindering electric cars is charging points availability but I think that will be solved by 20 years time.
Please correct me if you think I'm wrong!
Things I Don't Agree Will Happen
- Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Image source: Kurzwell
Here I'm taking it that Zetsche is using 'intelligent' with its robotic meaning. (i.e. able to vary its state or action in response to varying situations and past experience).
I think humans will always have the edge here. Humans have intuition and inspiration. Intuition and inspiration work with problems without always needing past experience. This is sometimes the case in medical breakthroughs. Humans adapt naturally to varying situations whereas the robot has to encounter them and analyze them before reacting. Humans also care about the outcome of their actions whereas the robot is just after validating data.
Please correct me if you think I'm wrong!
- Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver’s licence and will never own a car.
I agree that the autonomous cars system of transport will be available. It will be useful for going to work, for example.
I do not think it will replace car ownership because 20 years is not long enough for people to lose their pride of ownership in their car. A person who is 30 now will only be 50 in 20 years time. I think many people enjoy driving and this will continue albeit in electric cars.
Please correct me if you think I'm wrong!
So that's what I think on 4 of Zetsche's predictions.
What do you think?
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I agree all that will happen although I disagree with his timelines. Electric cars will not become mainstream in 2020...the lifecycle of a car is just too long. And I dont think 70%-80% of all jobs will be eliminated, more like half.
AI definitely will be assisting doctors in diagnosis and will be better than humans. You mention intuition but you must remember that humans have memory/lack of data. So while there might be intuition for the human, the computer has a ton more data to draw from.
Thank you for your comment. It is an interesting debate for sure :)