My take on the price predictions / actual demand for NOTES - Based on the existing music market

in streaming •  5 months ago

There are still confusion about the future demand and value of the Notes token. I thought I would try to break it down with some numbers, and roughly explain how they work.

The market

The entire music industry is expected to be valued at almost $14billion in 2018. This is worldwide, mostly from streaming, including paid digital music downloads.
Event tickets market Worldwide, 2018, expected to be $9,7billion. Only music events, digital purchases only.
Total market for events, streaming & downloads in 2018: $23,7billion. 

Source: https://www.statista.com/outlook/202/100/digital-music/worldwide#market-revenue

It was hard to find data about where to put the other features, so I have left it out from this example.
What Choon offers in addition to this that will increase the demand:

  • Collectibles
  • Advertising
  • Bi-directional tipping
  • Podcasts & audiobooks
  • Merch
  • Crowdfunding (Releases, tours, merch)
  • Syncs (TV, film, commercials)
  • Investing in tracks (*subject to legal approval)

So with this in mind, let’s first assume the full jackpot to see the total music market. 

100%market share:

The year is 2023. 

  • Choon has a 100% market share, and all competitors are gone.
  • Streaming as mining is mostly over
  • The Notes industry/eco system is now worth $23,700,000,000/year from only streaming packages, downloads, and tickets alone. Assuming a full year of this for Choon, leave’s it’s “real” market cap at $23,700,000,000. 23,7 billion USD.
  • There are a total supply of 2 billion Notes, meaning each Note is worth $11.85. (23,7billion market cap/2 billion tokens)
  • Speculations are completely out of this question, this is the real value and amount of money in the system.
    • Why?: If someone buys the notes up to $20 at this time, $20 will be the new price. Which means it will suddenly have a total market cap of $40billion, even though there aren’t actually money’s worth of $40 billion in there. If everyone wanted to sell at the same time, they would simply not be able to, because artificial value has been created because of how the stock market works. The price just went up a bit, not all the money put in it.
    • With this I mean that the actual trading price of the token will most likely be higher than what I am explaining here because of how stock/crypto trading works.

So, in this example we looked at the conditions of the entire music market, and got a rough look at how much the tokens will actually be worth if Choon takes it all. That gives us a “real” value of $11.85 per Note, which will likely be a lot higher because of how the stock market/crypto works with speculation.

But this is if Choon has 100% of both the music streaming/downloads market and the online ticket market. This is more of a best case scenario, but it should simplify the thinking a bit. 

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20% market share, streaming & downloads only

Now, let’s assume Choon manages to get 20% of the entire streaming & downloads only market, by the end of  2019.
A note will then be worth:  

  • 14billion worth of streaming & downloads market, provided it stays the same. 
  • *20% market share. 
  • = $2.8billion market share value. - 2.8/1.4billion Notes available (almost 200million notes are given out to artists for streaming as mining per year, with a total of 1billion. This scenario is after 2 years)
  •  = $2/note. 

This is not impossible, but will still be difficult to pull off. It’s a tough market. But this is a calculation we can look at, to determine what the notes' value will be if Choon gets a 20% market share of the existing streaming and downloads market, if it stays similar within the Choon eco system. This is how much people are actually spending on music, and how much a token should realistically be worth. 

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5% Market share, streaming & downloads only

Provided only a 5% market share of the downloads and streaming market alone, the notes should be worth $0.5. (In 2019/2020, adjusted for total supply) 

I hope that this helps understand it a bit more! If you have questions, feel free to ask in the comments.
I am in no way a stock market analyst or anything like it, this is just based on logical thinking. I may not know the proper terms for everything, but keeping it in simple terms might help everyone understand as well. 

Also keep in mind I have only accounted for streaming packages and downloads. The overall total market is likely to be much higher, as well as might increase if the system ends up being more convenient for the users, and they feel they are getting their moneys worth to a great extent.

If you liked this article, please consider upvoting it =)

You can also find my other article about what will drive the demand of the Notes token, and what will determine the price: https://steemit.com/streaming/@cryptoprebz/how-much-will-the-notes-be-worth

And if you're new to Choon, check out my introductory article about it, and why I like it so much: https://steemit.com/streaming/@cryptoprebz/why-i-believe-so-strongly-in-choon-and-why-it-matters

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You can also support me by listening to my music for free on Choon. 

You can find my profile here: Kryptokind on Choon ( #melodictechno + #minimaltechno,#progressivehouse + #deephouse, and more. Some with inspirations from#italo and #psytrance )
I also have set the playlist split to 50% for all my tracks, allowing you to get 50% of the royalties from any of my songs streamed through your playlist.

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Great to see you trying to put a rough potential value on NOTES.

However I think even 5% may be optimistic as you are talking about artist on labels and labels will not want to publish on Choon.

The best case scenario is that Choon becomes the defacto platform for self publishing artists. Any idea what that market is worth? That would be an interesting number to apply to your calculations.

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Probably very little, since artists are terrible at getting paid in general 😂

And I agree, even 5% might be much without the bigger artists. But there are a lot of indie producers, and I really don't see why they would publish elsewhere. We should expect that most indie artists on for instance Soundcloud, will come over after some time.

Indie labels accounted for 6 billion, according to this article: https://www.billboard.com/articles/business/8006977/indie-record-labels-global-market-share-2016-win-report , so that might be somewhat of an indication. And Choon will allow smaller labels from next year.
But it actually sounds like a lot more than I had thought. But yeah, I guess that is the potential total market before the big guns are in, excluding the other features that will increase demand.

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I agree about SoundCloud. I think there will be an exodus!

Excellent run down! Thanks for sharing this information and insight! Cheers :)

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Thanks! =)

Your post was manually selected and voted for by @illuminati-inc (IINC) with support of @curie. About IINC: here. About Curie: here.

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Awesome! Thank you so much =D

I'm still new to Steemit, but learning the ropes these days and checked out your compassionate and useful initiative, much appreciated 👌

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify:

As of 2018, Spotify has 180 million active users, including over 83 million paying subscribers

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Music#User_growth:

[...] ... and 50 million as of May 2018.[2] By July 2018, Apple Music had surpassed Spotify in terms of paying users in the United States

That is 133 million paying subscribers from these two services alone.

5% of just that would be 6,65 million subscribers.

I am curious when we will see the first user paying fiat for any service on Choon :-).