AFC Championship Game: Jaguars at Patriots

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SteemSports Presenter: Guest Writer @bbleehehh9

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SteemSports Editor: @theprophet0

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Sadly to say, Sunday will be the last time this season that we get to enjoy multiple NFL games in the same weekend.

It’s also the last real slate of DFS action tear.

That doesn’t mean we can’t try to break it down though and add a few extra bucks to our bankrolls before calling it a wrap on the year.

In what looks to be the premiere game on Championship Sunday, the upstart Jaguars travel to Foxboro to take on the battle-tested Patriots as 8 point underdogs.

This game gives us a healthy total of 47 points (Patriots 27.5, Jaguars 19.5) which is significantly higher than the 39 projected in the NFC Championship.

Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick is notorious for devising a game plan to attack his opponent’s biggest weakness. Despite having an MVP-caliber quarterback in Tom Brady who threw the ball 50+ times while dismantling the Titans last week, I’ll have very little (if any) exposure to Brady this weekend.

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The Jaguars were the #1 overall ranked team in DVOA against the pass during the regular season, while ranking 26th against the run. They have a pair of shutdown cornerbacks who have been lethal against wide receivers this year, which limits the ceilings of both Brandon Cooks and Chris Hogan. Both receivers should draw 6-7 targets, but will need to break off a long play to pay off their salaries. Danny Amendola draws a slightly better match-up in the slot against Aaron Colvin, but it feels like chasing points trying to go back there after his 100-yard game in the Divisional Round.

Even with the in-season addition of Marcel Dareus, the Jaguars stout defense is best attacked via the run. Dion Lewis has been a monster the past three weeks while Rex Burkhead has been sidelined, posting DK scores of 23.1, 31.3 and 35.3. If Burkhead misses again, he’s a lock in all formats, even at his elevated salary of $8,100.

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If Burkhead does indeed suit up, which seems to be the direction he’s trending, it complicates things. At $5400, Sexy Rexy looks like a tremendous value and could be fired up in cash games and tournaments alike, as he should be expected to see 15-20 touches as a home favorite in a game that the Pats want to control on the ground. I’m not even opposed to playing both backs together in lineups, but beware of shenanigans from Belichick. Remember, James White scored twice against the Titans last week. Brandon Bolden did as well.

At tight end, Rob Gronkowski is certainly the most talented player at his position on the slate and capable of putting up a big number that makes him a must-own. The Jaguars do a nice job of limiting tight ends as well though and while his ceiling remains high, his chances of hitting that ceiling are lower than we’d typically expect.

On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars were the most run-heavy team in the league during the regular season, ranking 32nd in passing play percentage. Part of that is due to the fact that they played with a lead in many games, but the focus of their offense all year has been ground and pound with Leonard Fournette and company.

There are two problems with his. One, is that Belichick knows this and usually does everything in his power to scheme away the opposition’s top weapon. Surely, he’ll make Blake Bortles try to beat him.

The second issue, is that the Jaguars are sizable favorites and likely to be playing from behind in this game. With the Patriots playing a bend but don’t break style of defense, Fournette could have an opportunity to rack up yards, and will be their first option if they get near the goal line, but he isn’t a core play for me at a price tag of $7200. Bank on 20+ touches with a decent touchdown equity.

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The Patriots are beatable in the secondary and the Jaguars should funnel more volume than normal to their wide receivers in this game. The problem, is trying to decipher where that volume will go. Marquise Lee, Dede Westbrook, Alan Hurns and Keelan Cole all saw a fairly equal number of snaps last week, with Lee leading the way with six targets. Westbrook was the preferred target the week before in the Wild Card Round. Hurns and Cole have each been the leading receiver at various points this season as well. All 4 are viable and super cheap on DK this week. My gut tells me that Lee ($4400) is the safest bet of the bunch for volume, while Cole ($3500) could make for a nice GPP play.

Astoundingly, the guy who interests me the most on this side, and could be my preferred target at QB on Championship Sunday, is Blake Bortles. Aside from a dud against the Titans in week 17, Bortles has put up 16.1 or more points in each of his last seven games, topping 23.6 in four of those contests. His ability to rack up yards on the ground raises his floor and the increased volume from the likelihood that he’s playing from behind raises his ceiling. At $5k, it’s hard not to like this spot.

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