[SteemMonsters] A Little Math on Rewards Edition Cards

So there are 10 reward edition cards now.

We know that drop rates are:

common: 75.2%
rare: 20%
epic: 4% (this might be slightly off)
legendary: 0.8%

gold edition: 2%

Said another way, chances of getting golds are:

common: 1 in 66 cards
rare: 1 in 250 cards
epic: 1 in 1250 cards
legendary: 1 in 6250 cards

Looking at the inverse, how many golds do we get in 6250 cards?

gold common: 95
gold rare: 25
gold epic: 5
gold legendary: 1

And the rewards edition contains:

4 common
3 rare
2 epic
1 legendary

So our expected distribution of 6250 cards will be:

card											total
regular	1151	1150	1150	1150	408	408	408	125	125	49	6124
gold	24	24	24	23	9	8	8	2	3	1	126

Of course, real numbers will vary slightly as RNG is a fickle goddess.

What remains to be seen is how much supply is created through quest grinding as we shift to this new system. A lot of players that were farming beta decks with level 1 cards are discovering that they can only eke out 1 rewards edition card per quest. A max level deck can get 15 or 20 cards per day, depending on whether in diamond or champion.

So in terms of monetary/card yield, max decks are 15-20x more powerful than starter or level 1 decks. But max decks cost more than that. The sweet spot from a pure ROI perspective is probably a mid-level deck in the gold leagues.

Will the farmers level up their decks and use fewer accounts? Probably.