Studying the Reduction in Steem Monster Alpha Card Supply

in #steemmonsters5 years ago (edited)

It has been a long time since I had a look at the combine rates for Steem Monster Alpha Cards. Today, I'll take a look at some new data to see how combining is going along three months since my last report.

Here's an overview of the individual cards, by splinter, and what is left (as individual cards) - then we'll have a look at which alpha cards are the rarest on an individual basis, splinter by splinter, rarity by rarity.

Individual Cards Available by Splinter

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Dragon is the rarest, due to them all being Legendary Cards in an Alpha deck. It is very surprising, that given the enormous power, and potential of the life deck, that individual life cards are the most plentiful available as single cards. It is also interesting that fire is the second rarest "normal" splinter, given that it does not fare well in ranked or tournament play.

Legendary Cards

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Selenia Sky is the rarest Legendary card, with only 709 individual cards available. The Spirit of the Forest is next, at 749 cards available. Then its the Frost Giant's turn, with only 771 of them in circulation. This is pretty representative of their value in combat. The card with the highest level of availability is the Angel of Light, with 875 individual cards available. I personally have about 47 individual Angel of light cards, or about 5.3% of the supply.

The art work is pretty, what can I say? :)

Supply in total of Individual Legendary cards has gone from 11730 to 7153.

Epic Cards

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It is no surprise that the Swamp Thing is the rarest card here - it has been since the beginning of time, basically. The Air Elemental and Defender of Truth are fairly rare, with the Naga Warrior and Mischevious Mermaid not too far behind.

There's still heaps of these epic cards in circulation, but since I started recording this data in October last month, their supply has almost halved (58000 to 28000).

Rare Cards

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Supply of Individual Rare cards has halved since October 2018. (252869 to 124953). The rarest rare, on an individual basis is Alric Stormbringer. There's only 4979 individual Alric Stormbringer cards in existence.

Here's an illustration of the Summoner reduction in supply over each data gathering period:

image.png

Common Cards

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Common cards have seen a signficant reduction in supply since October 2018. (618737 to 261946)

The Goblin Shaman is the rarest individual common card in the game. The Pirate Captain, and Crustacean King are the next rarest. The most common commons are those of the Death Splinter - The Animated Corpse and Spineback Wolf.

@mattclarke's flesh golem is the fourth rarest common, with 11,713 Flesh Golems in the wild at the time of writing. If you have any flesh golems, please send them to @mattclarke so that they might reunite with their lost brothers.

This data only applies to ALPHA COMMON FOIL Cards. I have data on Gold Foil Cards and will be publishing this when I can type it out and do the analysis on that separate data set. All charts created with Excel, data painstakingly, manually entered by hand from Peak Monsters into Excel.

There are currently only 422,793 ALPHA COMMON FOIL Steem Monster Cards in Existence as of March 23, 2019. In October 2018, there was 941,319.

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Thanks a for sharing this post on Twitter!

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No problem at all! There's a pretty active community of Twitter users for Steem Monsters :)

Got to do the out reach! :)

Rare good analysis!

It's is unclear what is the time scale on plots.

These are the intervals I took the data at. Initially, this was weekly. Today was the first time new data has been added since December.

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amazing analysis. Thank you.

You're welcome! See you on the battlefield! :)

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I have the feeling that something is cooking up with the Alpha Cards. We could see a big Bonus for Alpha Card conversion into DEC coming up.
I hope to see some more utility and value coming into the Alpha Cards otherwise they will just become an arbitrage market for traders who convert them into Beta Cards.
Thanks for diggin the DATA.

There's no real 'extra value' in terms of utility at this stage. The only exception is alpha only tournaments. I'd love to see an alpha only ranked / ladder mode that runs alongside the regular season rewards.

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I'm gonna see if I have any of these rare cards! 🤞🤞🤞 Thanks for the analysis

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Now with the ability to (more) easily buy Alpha packs again, I wonder what implications it will have. I am hoping to get some more for the collection!

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A lot of cards are approaching the point where a $3 alpha pack on the secondary market looks like good value.

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Alpha forever! Great analysis. I have a decent deck that gets me (barely) into gold that is all alpha. It’s level 6 commons and such on into legendaries which are mostly level 2. I wonder if I’ll someday buy a full set of powerful betas or something, but I don’t think I’ll convert. Alphas just seem like part of history to me.

There's no doubt traders gobbled up alphas and converted them to the beta to tighten the margins between alpha and beta cards.

The interesting thing is that even with this reduction in supply, there's still about 10% of the available alpha supply "on the market".

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