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RE: MEASUREMENT OF PERFORMANCE: SHARPE RATIO (Does the extra risk always worth it?)

in #steemit6 years ago (edited)

Excellent post! Do you actually make a calculation of the sharp ratio for your portfolio in practice and if so how often?

I have a service called TradeStops that you hook up to your portfolios to. It then allows you to turn on different trade stops. He calculates a dynamic trade stop, by determining what he calls a volatility quotient. He essentially calculates the expected range a stock should be in and if it's drops below the lower limit, we get an email telling us it's stopped out and we should sell the position. Dr. Smith has a PhD in math specializing in systems science, statistics and time cycles. He shows each week a clever use for his website. One such use is to create a portfolio based on following the top 10 hedge fund managers and he includes Warren Buffet. It looks at their top 10 position and their performance. If they applied his dynamic stops to their portfolios, their returns are dramatically improved.

He also has a tool to look at your complete volatility quotient of your entire portfolio and then provides a single selection to show you how to balance your portfolio to have equal risk. If there is a low volatile stock, you have a have a larger position and a high volatility you would have a smaller size. This way your portfolio has equal risk. If you couple this with his dynamic stops, the billionaire portfolios are beat by hundreds of percent. It's quite incredible. Here is one example.

Screen Shot 2018-05-18 at 10.46.15 PM.png

He uses a green, yellow and red trend line to indicate the state of the stock. If its green, you stay in the stock. Yellow means the stock has dropped to halfway to its stop limit (the red trend line). This allows you stay in your stocks longer and only exist when the volatility is outside the normal range. You can see how Einhorn would have been stopped out in 2009 and the massive outperformance this would have had using the exact same stocks he had it in his portfolio.

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Great and valuable comment. I'll take a look!
What surprises me the most is that TOP 10 managers barely beat SPX return in that graph!

Certainly calculating volatility is very important to have a real stop loss. However as every statistic measure, they tend to offer false signals and situations like that yet they worth the most of the attention since preserving capital is the most important thing for all investors.

I'm currently working on a trading bot that uses Parabolic SAR as stop loss indicator.

The parabolic SAR is a technical indicator used to determine the price direction of an asset, as well draw attention to when the price direction is changing. Sometimes known as the "stop and reversal system," the parabolic SAR was developed by Welles Wilder, creator of the relative strength index (RSI)

If you can develop a trading bot, then you have some pretty substantial talent. I'm an engineer, but no way could I create a trading bot, unless I did it through a bot service that provides RPA (robotic process automation). I'm involved in a project at work where we are looking at this service to automate mundane tasks to free people to do more important things with their time...

Creating a trading bot certainly takes some time for all the backtesting needed. But is not that hard since is build in Phyton. I'm quite sure you as an engineer would have no problem in developing one.
Also, technical indicators are open source or easy to implement such as volume, macd, moving averages... the relevant fact is which indicators and which rules the bot has.

Also I thought about creating a bot for Steemit, also in Phyton, similar to those found at steembottracker.com. It's quite profitable since you receive SBD or Steem per vote yet the vote you give cost you nothing (Voting Power regenerates at a rate of 20% daily) however, around 10k SP are needed and I'm not even close yet.
Some people say it's unethical to use bots in steemit yet I think they can provide a very useful tool to promote quality content if some measures are implemented (max voting per user/day, white lists... per example) because with the current system is almost impossible for minnows to get an audience.

People are what make steemit and their are two types in the world. Those who want to add to it and those intent on taking from it. The issue I have with bots is that they lower the value of interaction on the platform. And those intent on taking have taken a big toll with high level escalation of down voting. They use bot's to make a lot of money and then down vote others who make a lot for the work they are actually putting into their posts. The biggest down voters don't follow anyone. They just self vote and run bot farms. So I've stayed away from this. I do agree that those intent on giving can effectively use a bot on steemit to be seen and I don't have an issue with that.

Wise words my friend.
Ending the bots would certainly push the quality of the platform's content and will end up with the farming.

However, why would the people who profit the most from the bots (mostly the devs from steemit and very early adopters of steemit) end them? Is hard to believe.
I think Steemit is a great platform but there are several changes needed, specially transparency.

It's like asking a drug addict to get rid of people who supply them with drugs. It's not gonna happen:)

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