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RE: Is the Steemit Roadmap at a Dead End, Being that it has Already Been Run?
Being mechanical and not getting too jumpy I am sure is a necessary prerequisite for being involved in trading and investing. It is just such a bummer to see those vests steadily lose value day after day. But, again, best not to be too jumpy. I think your 6 month plan is a good idea. As of now, I am powering down a bit, and plan to keep writing to keep my SP supply stable/growing. Perhaps I will cancel this action before the first of the 104 payments if I see something happen. The silence at this point and the steadily falling price are not good indicators to me. All that said, I still love this place, for what it means to me beyond the dollars and cents.
I think it's a bit premature to start powering down, unless you need the money for something. I agree it's a bummer to see our vests losing value. I remember not long ago, getting a kick out of voting and seeing the $ indicator move up a few cents. Now my votes rarely make it budge.
But if you believe Steem price will rise in the long-term, it makes sense to keep buying as your overall cost basis will then be close to the bottom when the downtrend finally reverses. The absolutely worst thing to do right now is go all in with a huge purchase, only to see the price get cut by 50% again. Dollar cost averaging is King until we get confirmation of a reversal. Signs I would look for include:
Right now we seem far away from achieving even one of those indicators, let alone all three.
I agree it may be a bit premature to power down, but as you said, there are at present no real signs of a reversal, and I don't see one coming in the future, either. I am not powering down completely, but would like to retain some of the value I have put in. I watch the price fall predictably and steadily about a half a penny every day. No word from the devs on anything, and the market cap continues to fall.
Steem very well could reverse. My concern is losing all I have worked for if it doesn't. I see commentary quite frequently about this or that new low being the "bottom," but as you said, the indicators are not there. This has been going on for months.
It seems the wisest to me at this point to take a little out and put it into something that has a more solid forecast, and is doing well, such as BTC.
All that said, I am still not sure. Perhaps I will cancel the power down. Steem now at 17 cents and approaching 16 with utter silence in the Steemosphere. Doesn't seem to bode well. Maybe it will end up like Dogecoin and be only worth a tiny fraction of a cent. Even then, I would be interested. Watching my account value plummet with no real answers to important questions is making my spidey-sense tingle, though.
Well, it doesn't hurt to take a cautious approach either. If you power down a bit now and put it into Bitcoin (which does look set for further gains), and the Steem price continues to decrease, you can buy back in later and get more Steem than you started with. This would be much like the strategy I'm using for REP. However to do that really effectively you have to play the "guess the bottom" game.
Another factor to consider in that strategy is you lose out on some of the "interest" from holding Steem Power. But right now the price is going down much faster than that interest is accumulating, so it might not make much difference.
It's a trade off, and hard to see which approach is best without knowing how close we are to a bottom.