Where Steemit Will Be In Five Years
You're Lousy At Predictions And You Know It
Yes. Yes I am. I once famously predicted that Costco would be out of business in five years. This was back in the mid-90s. Since my wife still shops there regularly, I'd say my forecasting of the warehouse shopping chain was off by a few decades. I still hold out hope, though.
No, not really. I have nothing against Costco. I do enjoy a $1.50 sausage dog and drink now and again.
However, it's the ninth day of @dragosroua's May 30 Days Writing Challenge, and this is the topic:
Where Do You See Steemit In Five Years?
So What's Your Lousy Prediction?
The current issues that many feel are plaguing the system (or not, depending on which side of the fence you stand), come to a head. It becomes abundantly clear by all that the constant back and forth about what is right and wrong is not helping, and that for Steemit to survive, and by extension the entire STEEM ecosystem, let alone move forward, people need to come together, settle their differences, and figure out the best course of action for each school of thought.
Once that happens, Steemit as a platform takes off, and the other apps follow suit and take off with it. The price of STEEM hits $1,000. It's no longer about what we can do, it's about what we should do.
This is what Steemit's future looks like. Just go with it.
How we get there, what that looks like, I don't know. My guess is, a few high profile account users band together and rally the troops. They say it's time to figure out ways to coexist. Incentives to do so are somehow introduced and agreed upon. The more selfish, looking out for number one approach is replaced by a 'I'll look out for you" mentality, based on trust, hard work, and adding value.
That's It? Rainbows And Unicorns?
It's better than the alternative isn't it? Or maybe it's not. Maybe it's best that Steemit go the way of the first gen anything, from Netscape and AOL to MySpace and Yahoo. Maybe it will be some other platform and competing technology, like ONO and EOS, that will actually look at the mistakes made here and come up with a more viable, stable way of doing things.
But I'd rather not. I'd rather Steemit get its act together. Our act together. There is a lot of good going on already, especially within the communities and the people that have already sprung up here. There is so much potential here. Yes, Steemit is two years old, still in beta, and doesn't look much like a modern social site, let alone a bleeding edge one. Yes, it has seemingly juxtaposed ideas of how things should be accomplished working at cross purposes. Yes, there is a lot of greed, animosity and flat out criminality (phishing schemes and the like).
It doesn't have to be this way, however. We don't have to take the outside world and amplify it here. STEEM was designed for something far greater. A global purpose, with freedom and equal opportunity for everyone. That means everyone has a say, and everyone has a chance to make something out of their time here.
Did You Sell It?
I don't know. I certainly hope so. I hope people want to make Steemit a better place. Be the change we want, or however that phrase goes. I think it has to start with us. We can't rely on code to get us from here to where we want to be. Not entirely. We can either drive change or have change thrust upon us. Change that may or may not help. I think those who have been here for a while have seen change that didn't necessarily make things all that better. Or at least that seems to be the consensus of the posts and comments I've read.
So, what's it going to be Steemit Community? Sit back and let things just carry on to whatever conclusion, taking what we can for as long as we can, or are we going to come together and figure it out? I know what's easiest to do. Humanity's past is littered with the followers of the path of least resistance. Then, let us strive for something more. Let us rise above our baseness and our self-serving self-preservation. Let's stop calling each other names and hurling accusations back and forth and just sit down like reasonable adults and talk things through. For our good. For the good of Steemit/STEEM. For the good of our families. For the good of humanity.
I admire your optimism @glenalbrethsen but I don't share it.
I'm not sure that we can "drive change". I feel that those with the power have so much of it that the "little people" can't make that much of a difference to the overall system.
Just look at all the stuff that has come out about the top 20 witnesses this week. These are the people that make a lot of the decisions and many of them are behaving in a totally a self-gratifying way.
I had no idea this was how things work, with regard witnesses. Naively I thought that votes were just done by total numbers. I didn't realise that this too was based on SP which, as we know, is massively imbalanced.
I hope I'm wrong but the changes I've witnessed in just the few months I've been here are escalating in the wrong direction, e.g. phishing, spam acccounts, bots etc. etc. I've noticed also that a number of people who were staunch opposers to self voting when I joined Steemit are now also self voting.
Apart from a couple of people the only ones in my regular circle of contacts who don't self vote are those that are in Asher's Leagues.
This is not a judgement of self-voting so much as an observation about how behaviour has changed in a very space of time.
However, I don't believe that the entire STEEM ecosystem is tied into Steemit's fate. I may be wrong but I think the Steem block chain and Steem may well go on to do great things whilst Steemit implodes.
I don't know if I always share the optimism in this article, either. :)
It wasn't easy to write this post the way I did, but I'm tired of being negative myself. (I don't mind what others say—at least it shows they care more than being apathetic). And when I say negative, I mean negative in that STEEM is doomed, or that Steemit can't be fixed. It's fine to point out the problems. Otherwise, they just perpetuate, fester and worsen.
I believe Steemit can be fixed. It's only a few steps a way, really. But I guess they're hard steps, and I just don't know if they will be taken. It's going to take some big SP to do it, and go against their own best interests. That's not human nature. Ultimately, that's what were up against. Our own human nature.
I agree with you that STEEM can live on. I think that's where the SMTs might come in. I'm hoping they aren't deployed until after Hivemind/Communities, though, to see where they go first. If they don't work according to plan, then maybe Steemit shouldn't exist, because it will mean that the same indifference that exists now will continue there, and that the faults that exist are not only of the community's and its host of actors, small and great, good and bad, but something far more endemic and systemic.
Meaning, it was all a lie and it was never meant to be any more than it is now. Or even better, that it actually became more that was ever intended and that it won't be allowed to continue.
And if that's the case, then Steemit needs to fall, so that something far greater and something more worthwhile can stand in its stead. If Steemit can't believe in its own ideals, then it shouldn't pretend to lead the way to a brighter place. It should be unmasked for the Trojan horse it truly is.
Well said @glenalbrethsen. Especially the last paragraph. It would be a lot easier in some ways if Steemit had been marketed as a great chance to make money then all the good stuff that happens would be bonuses rather expectations. It's amazing how a shift in perspective can alter things! 😁
Steem to the moon!!! Especially last December this was the Sentiment of most people as SBD and STeem was quite high.
People were joining the platform, people were posting so much though the negative was a lot of spam and plagiarism.
Now from as high as almost 20 dollars for 1 SBD it went down as low as just above 1.50 and many said that Steemit was dead. Yet it bounced back and although it is barely at 3 dollars it is still showing signs that it has value.
I really hope the Hivemind and SMT will be the gateway for mass adoption and retention.
I agree. I think there is some built in resiliency, if STEEM is allowed to do its job. If the negativity of the actions and opinions of the users can subside, I think we've got something. But if we can't find a way to coexist, when all we really have to do is coexist, no rules, then I don't know. I guess we'll prove that we need to overlords because we can't figure it out on our own. We can't find the way to overcome. I don't know. I'm getting too stubborn in my old age to believe mountains can't be moved and hearts can't be changed. Just need to keep putting our backs into the first domino until if finally falls and some progress towards righting the good ship Steemit can be made.
That's a very positive take! Good for you. I like Costco, so I won't agree with you there, but I can agree that it would be nice if we could come together and make Steemit a great place to be.
I don't think it's going to happen though. I think without some intervention, the community will continue to become more fractured and divided. As long as there's potential for abuse, there will be abuse. It might not be much abuse, but it will still be there. That's not terrible if the abuses are small, but we have some big issues on our hands and the sooner they're dealt with, the better.
Man, Steem at $1,000. That would be something!
I don't know if I agree with myself. :) I just feel that it's going to be better for all of us if we're able to figure this out ourselves. I would be relieved, however, if there was some positive code action taken. That would me that someone in the C-suite is paying attention and does see things a little bit differently than what they appear to do now. Abuse is what it is. I'm not sure what compels people to it, whether they justify it somehow or just don't see it as such. I guess if the money is rolling in, that's about what matters.
At any rate, I'm in agreement that there are big issues and they need to be dealt with ASAP. And if we had more tools to work with, rather than this tinkering around the edges, at least that would be better than all of us fighting over things that have gotten us nowhere so far.
Awww, don't take away the tinkering! It's all we have. :)
No tinkering.
Do you think they're still alive? Shouldn't somebody go check on them?
No tinkering.
It's been a long time since they've tinkered. I don't think they really care anymore. I mean, seriously. When was the last time they tinkered?
No tinkering.
You know what. Forget this. This is the worst social media platform. Ever! Everyone are just royal doofusessesesses. I hate Steemit! I hate everyone!
They tinker.
Yes! They're alive! Oh, thank heavens!
Finally! They do really care! We're saved!
Thanks, Steemit tinker-guys. We love you. 😍
Ha ha ha, yes, that's how it works! What a crazy world!
Well, tough decisions must be made... or not. If not the clamoring hordes will vacate to another realm/blockchain. I hope not. I'd like to see Steemit prosper and thrive. Us along with it. Blessings.
It's probably going to require a balancing act, just like anything else in life. Doing what you can when you can here to try to build up STEEM, stay motivated, get connected, etc., but still having an ear to the ground for the next big thing. If all the eggs are in one basket when it gets upset, not such a good deal. But if the eggs can be ready to be lifted out of the basket before spillage occurs, better.
I'd rather not go through a 13-week process of trying to power down if things fall apart. I'd much rather feel like things are going to get better and do my little, microscopic part to that end. And there's a perfectly good blockchain to do it on.
Hmnn.. agree completely. However you used the word "microscopic"... I'm betting you love a good slice of gouda cheese!
I suppose when you're a minnow, you're not microscopic. However, compared to the total SP floating around here, anyone in my position won't be moving that much water around. My displacement field is pretty low.
Not even sure I like gouda cheese. I think I may have eaten it once, but can't remember. 😬
I will say, that I do have a little more SP than some others do that started around the same time as I did and stuck with it. That's only because I chose to do some investing, probably more than I should have. So, the actual SP I've made over the last four months is just a little north of 240, and that's partially with the help of the little over 1,000 SP that I bought in with. So, I'll upgrade my assessment from microscopic, but so far the influence I wield ain't far and it ain't wide, but it's reasonable and expected for where I'm at. :)
What has surprised me, among other things here on Steemit, is that the divisions between plankton and Whales are so huge. At least from the point of view of a redfish they are. I thought the attainment of Minnow would be much easier. The entire growth pattern remains rather nebulous to me. I did see a breakdown somewhere the other day of the number of each category of "fish" and was surprised at the small number of whales and orca's. But I suppose that is life, is it not? And building SP is a rather challenging task. After 3 months I have earned 130 SP. And that you have earned 240 is quite good. I suppose it wont do any good to whine a bit that it is more difficult than anticipated. No, didn't think so.
So I come back to hard work and focus. You've apparently done both.
Well, it's quite the climb, and it only gets harder the farther up you go. It's factors of 10, and while what we see is SP, it's measured in vests or MVests. So, when you have to get to 1 million vests just to get to a Minnow, that's a significant climb. But it only gets steeper after that, because to get to Dolphin, you need 10 million vests. That's another 9 million on top of the first million! In SP, it roughly translates out to the difference between 500-5,000.
I was fortunate enough to have a friend @bbrewer, who introduced me to Steemit and then helped me get my bearings. Then, I have benefited from Curie a couple of times, OCD a couple of times, and over the last three weeks have seen a gradual increase in the amounts on on my posts.
The leagues have helped in the last six weeks to set this up because of the work I have to do to stay in the top 10. I don't automate anything, so it takes more time for me to get around to the posts and comments to curate and reply on.
The other thing is I do have some money invested in STEEM, which I powered up. That has helped too, because I can command a little more of the reward pool. Without those things happening in tandem, I would not be where I am now.
I am happy to report that I have done this without self-upvoting, without paying bid bots or being a part of a minnow bot group, and with only a week's worth of delegation that I didn't ask for but got anyway.
re: whining
I've done my share, and probably will continue to do it on days where it's not going my way. So, whine away as far as I'm concerned.
I learned quickly with the leagues that I needed to do more than what I was, even if I thought I was doing as much as I could. Obviously, I wasn't. I started keeping track of the number of comments and votes and that has helped me to push a little knowing what I need.
I also try to have 1-3 posts a day (except for the weekend). And I'm putting in roughly a 76 hour week Monday-Saturday. I know most people can't do that. I might not be able to for much longer myself if my wife has her way.
A personal note: when I first started posting, about the 10th of February, I really struggled. I had poisoned myself over the years with toxins and heavy metals from paint. I was a painting contractor. It was very difficult to even think, let alone write something that made any sense. Since then I have made gradual progress and am doing much better. In the beginning I truly could not focus more than a few hours a day. That has improved too. In fact I consider this improvement of mental function as the greatest gift I've gotten from Steemit. I truly am very grateful. If I got nothing else from my time here, this would be just compensation. Now I spend probably about 6-8 hours a day. I do not think I'd have been able to make it this far had I not had the opportunity to work at it, to force myself to think. Which I quite literally had to do.
I do not have a spouse to keep happy. Just two dogs and a 20 something son who shares my home.
Due to the illness I had no funds to put into Steemit. Started with nothing. I suppose that will make a good story one day. Anyway, I've said it before... I do appreciate your example. What impresses me most is the time you take to comment and respond. Impressive. Blessings.
Well, I think it is what we're supposed to be doing here, right? Commenting? I'm trying to add value where I can, and if I'm actually managing to do that, great. I'll keep doing it.
I'm sorry to hear about the painting and the toxins. That's terrible. But it's great that you've been increasing your ability to think and create. I wouldn't have known if you didn't tell me. That's awesome to be able to overcome that. I hope you continue to improve and that you will have the outlet you need to keep going.
Twenty-something, eh? Both my sons are in that age group. The one living with me has a wife and daughter, our first grandchild. The older one used to live with us and his wife, but went back to school in April of last year. He's hopefully going to finish up this year so he can actually work rather than become a full-time student. :)
Great article!! I agree that all need to come together in the best interest of STEEM!!
I have not heard or read of any issues regarding the STEEMit community, since I am fairly new. But I do believe this is a very good platform that does have the potential to grow into something amazing.
Hopefully whatever issues stand in the way of any growth, will be resolved so that in five years we will see the unicorns and rainbows.
Oh, there are plenty of issues. Some in the code, a lot among the users. It's all out there, if you wish to see it. I'm not going to tell you to go looking for it, though, (sometimes it finds you!) because I think doing what we can to add value is the best thing. However, knowledge is power, and in smaller doses it can educate and inform the decisions we make. It can also safeguard against being blindsided.
I agree. STEEM is meant for greatness, even if Steemit itself is not. I hope though that people can come together. It will take more than all of the plankton and minnows combined, though (which would be very difficult to do, anyway), but a lot of dolphins, quite a few orcas, and some whales, too.
The first step in bringing this about is the hardest. Each successive step after that will be easier to make.
Steem will definately rise in value by next 5 years, if the integration of the smart media token SMT is achieved whereby many app will have their stake in steem SMT. Which will result in a higher valuation of the steem blockchain, which will result to a massive increase in steem price . I see the price of steem to be worth 800 dollars in the next five years