In order to share an opinion anywhere near informed, I would need to know some things that may or may not be possible to know.

The main question would be, why isn't STEEM already higher on the list?

Too young, so it just takes time?

Larimer leaving and now creating EOS distracting would be STEEM adopters or at least slowing them down?

Not enough people know about STEEM?

The turmoil that can be found on any given day on Steemit, et al, because of disputations over you name it?

At least some of the dead fish account users spreading the word that Steemit et al is not what it claims to be?

People are waiting for the big changes that have been announced for quite a while but have yet to drop: HF 20 (Velocity), Communities/Hivemind, SMTs?

The fact that for weeks, on boarding users has slowed from thousands a day to hundreds or less a day?

And then, as you say, what stuff do we not know that is preventing things from happening?

At this point, my opinion would have to be, in agreement with you, that without knowing why people aren't adopting STEEM more, it could be up to $12 by tonight and back down to $2 by tomorrow morning.

After these last larger spikes, I'd like to see some lateral movement myself. Until at least Monday. :)