So, What It Would Take For STEEM To Be A Top 10 Cryptocurrency?
Some of my followers seemed a bit confused about the possibility of a STEEM breakout, and I totally agree with them. It's better to be cautious and be positively surprised, than overly enthusiastic and lose.
But even as a cautious crypto enthusiast, I do think we need to do our homework and at least understand what are the actual scenarios. So, below are a few simulations for the STEEM price, combined with the current values of other tokens from Coinmarketcap.
All scenarios are taking into account value in fiat, although I also have a few mixed ones, in which value in BTC fluctuates, but also the BTC value fluctuates. For the sake of simplicity, let's think only in USD for now and not try to model from where the growth (or the dip) may come.
Scenario 1 - Top 10 Crypto, Places 6 To 10
At the moment of writing, the 6th asset in CMC was Litecoin, with a marketcap of approx $8,750,000,000. The 10th asset was NEO, with a marketcap of $4,943,000,000. So, between roughly $5 billion and $9 billion.
Total STEEM circulating supply is 254,199,099 tokens.
To reach the tenth place in Top 10, STEEM would need to trade at: $4,943,000,000 / 254,199,099 = $19.44.
To reach the sixth place in Top 10, STEEM would need to trade at: $8,750,000,000 / 254,199,099 = $34,42.
Scenario 2 - Top 10 Crypto, Places 5 To 3
Before raising that eyebrow, please remember that STEEM was on the top 3 position during July 2016, so nothing is really impossible. So, let's see what it would take for STEEM to be at least in the 5th position, which is now taken by EOS, with roughly $12, 424,000,000.
Well, for that STEEEM would need to trade at: $12, 424,000,000 / 254,199,099 = $48,87.
Scenario 3 - Below Top 50 Crypto
But, as I said, anything is possible in crypto, so STEEM may go even lower than its 29th position, where it is right now. So, what it would mean for STEEM to go below top 50?
That spot is taken now by Status, with a marketcap of roughly $497,000,000. To be in that place, STEEM would need to trade at: $1.95.
Thoughts? Opinions?
I'm a serial entrepreneur, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Steemit you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.
Wanna know when you're getting paid?
|
I know the feeling. That's why I created steem.supply, an easy to use and accurate tool for calculating your Steemit rewards |
At those prices (top 10) the daily reward pool would be astronomical.
As long as rewards are distributed widely and not to just a few, as the price climbs it could become a self prepetuating bull run.
That's a very interesting observation and I confess I didn't think about it. But it adds an interesting dimension to the discussion.
From a certain point of view, the growth of STEEM may be hindered by its user base, which is not enough yet to justify such a big price. Given that the "reward per average person" will stay the same when we will have not 50k active users, but 500k active users, that will mean an increase in the market value by 10x. If I'm not mistaken.
Based on technology, community and usefulness, I'd say the following coins should be in the top 10, in no particular order:
That's a subjective selection, of course, but I honestly think it's closer to the reality of future adoption than the current top 10.
I think we need better training/education and support. It seems like we lose about 90% of our users. I think it should be about 50% maybe less. Hopefully I can help make things better moving forward and help boos the price. I think $10 steem would be a good price at the end of this year.
I'd put myself in the "optimistic" camp, but not insanely so (like some on Steem).
The blockchain itself is sound (high use, very fast & free transactions), and Steem has first-mover advantage in the social space, with a fairly decent sized, active community.
But I don't think it will break out into mainstream adoption until the development team realise they need to get serious UX & marketing help to drive it forward as a business, rather than a tech project.
The communities features will help (when they arrive), but Steemit needs a lot of work & constant A/B testing, if that's where they're hoping to drive adoption.
Where I hold out the most hope is with SMTs, and there being a (possibly multiple) killer app using the Steem blockchain and that affecting the price of Steem and bringing more attention to the rest of the network.
Appics looks really promising, but I'd love to see more original dapps coming, not just blockchain versions of already established platforms (like Steemit vs Reddit, DTube vs YouTube, Appics vs Instagram).
So yes, I do think Steem has the potential to reach the top 10, but not yet. I'll keep on keeping on and my fingers will stay crossed.
To go below 50th would be a disaster if the total CoinmarketCap was frozen today, of course...but it will not lose so much (price around 1.9USD)
Let's be conservative, my bet is STEEM between the 15th first coins and price between 12 and 14USD by the end of the year
Steem on
Scenario 2 seems to do it for me, seeing steem on the top 5 is fine with me
Mmh, you are using the current supply of Steem. But everybody lots of them are added. Eah day around 730K.
So we could even get in the top20 without a hugh leap in price in the next 6 month. It easily adds 394 million to the market cap without an increase in price! That alone would lift Steem to place 22!
Correct me if I am wrong!
My OPINION is that STEEM won't go much lower than it is now.
In order to share an opinion anywhere near informed, I would need to know some things that may or may not be possible to know.
The main question would be, why isn't STEEM already higher on the list?
Too young, so it just takes time?
Larimer leaving and now creating EOS distracting would be STEEM adopters or at least slowing them down?
Not enough people know about STEEM?
The turmoil that can be found on any given day on Steemit, et al, because of disputations over you name it?
At least some of the dead fish account users spreading the word that Steemit et al is not what it claims to be?
People are waiting for the big changes that have been announced for quite a while but have yet to drop: HF 20 (Velocity), Communities/Hivemind, SMTs?
The fact that for weeks, on boarding users has slowed from thousands a day to hundreds or less a day?
And then, as you say, what stuff do we not know that is preventing things from happening?
At this point, my opinion would have to be, in agreement with you, that without knowing why people aren't adopting STEEM more, it could be up to $12 by tonight and back down to $2 by tomorrow morning.
After these last larger spikes, I'd like to see some lateral movement myself. Until at least Monday. :)
I don't see STEEM becoming top 10, but it should be way higher than 29th crypto.
STEEM has many use scenarios and many are already active in other platforms/projects...eg: dLive, dTube, dSound, dMania, Steepshot etc. These all use STEEM to some degree, and are gaining users daily.
STEEM should be much higher than it is currently.