We're back and climbing.... to the moon!!! or perhaps not....
Site usage stats are back to their climbing trends. The hacking, distributed denial of service attacks and the maintenance necessary as a result, led to a dip in user activity on the site.
This is now back to normal and continuing its rapidly upward trend.
This is reflected across all geographical regions and growth trends are no longer linear but exponential.
The exponential curves still indicate that Europe will bypass the Americas soon. In fact the number of users lines now frequently overlap in the race for the top spot.
Asia shows sustained growth and Africa and Oceania still lag behind.
We now have enough historical data in order to do analytical forecasting.
The "Holt-Winters" forecast model (including exponential smoothing for trends only) indicates that if trends were to remain the same, (even taking the cyber attacks into account) Steemit should be expecting almost 20 000 returning users on the site daily within the next 10 days.
This truly does indicate the sky (moon) is the limit.
It makes sense that sign up of users has been throttled. After all steemit is still in beta phase and much of its functionality, security etc. is still undergoing refinement.
We also need time for the newly acquired users to get familiar with how to use the site effectively and operate in a secure way. Steemit simplifies cryptocurrency adoption but beneath the hood it is still quite sophisticated.
New users need time to understand this sophistication and realize that their account is the equivalent of a bank account open to the internet...
We would not leave our bank card pin just anywhere on the internet would we?
Solid research and an exciting forecast. Just watch Dan's other baby, Bitshares soar as well.
we can only hope!
Steemit has much development to go, i mean their still in beta.
we need a bit more time to consolidate first I think
Wow! Great work researching and putting this together. It helps to validate what I and many others believe. Steemit has created a valuable platform where users have the ability to be rewarded and people want to be a part of.
Yup... people are beating down the door to get in.
Yes! And the importance of creating consistently valuable content will be realized as people start to follow the posts of those who are generating income and conversations. Helping new people understand some of the ins and outs of steemit will not only provide votes for the poster, but hopefully also keep post from over posting mediocre content. Votes and comments are valuable even if they don't generate a lot of money right now. I'm excited to see users content evolve to be something that is unique to this platform alone and that cannot be copied by any other ad-monetized media at the current moment.
Great post, excellent information; very reassuring. Thank you
It's nice to have the facts amongst all the FUD from the POLO listing
Where's the Steemit 1password tutoriaL?
Us the search button next to "Submit a Story"
Or check out https://steemit.com/@arhag
he has been "encouraging" us since the beginning.
Thanks
I don't think that the recent increase in the number of users is enough to validate an exponential interpolation. We have to be very cautious with this kind of previons since the number of datas is not that consequent (around 120 values) and can fluctuate greatly with all kind of new informations about the platform.
Sure I did put in a qualification statement.... if the trend continues... however it wont right now since new sign ups are being throttled.
I also agree that it is very dependent on the hype around... but so far steemit continues to be hyped organically by user testimonials.
Good post as usual.
If the steemit allows signups again we will see a big spike again.
Good job, Very interesting.
So, how this relate to the Steem price. Probably not a direct correlation, but as more Steem is "printed" and people cash out, the price is going down while users are growing. Would be interesting to compare these 2 charts to have a better understanding. If the price of the coin keeps drooping and stabilizes at a lower point, 1000s of dollares can quickly become 100s. Hyperinflation.
Any thoughts on this?
Thanks for sharing this information
I suggest you read the whitepaper, it discusses exactly these scenario's you describe and how it is the steem ecosystem is designed to mitigate this.
Glad you liked it...
Glad I found another quality content steemer.. @gavvet will be following your posts!
I did a blog yesterday on steemit becoming invitation only; is this a security issue or marketing ploy??
https://steemit.com/marketing/@michaellamden68/have-i-read-this-right-nobody-can-sign-up-to-steemit-com
We are still in beta--- the number of new sign ups were levels not expected for this beta phase