3 scenarios for Steemit once the new rules (hardfork) are in place.
On Tuesday, November 16th, the new hardfork will be implemented which will bring about big changes to Steemit. I keep thinking about the ramifications of these changes and decided to just deduct the problem for myself. I came up with 3 scenarios.
So, what do we know so far? 3 things are important.
- Power down period will go from 24 months to 3 months.
- The inflation rate will go down from 100% to 9.5%.
- Holding Steem power will generate allot less Steem power than before. Therefor it won’t be possible to power down and at the same time have your Steem power increase at the same or faster rate.
Scenario one: Everybody sells.
All the big holders of Steem power will power down and sell everything. The price will go down for 3 months. (I don't think exciting users or new users have sufficient buying power to offset the amount of steem being sold.)
This could be positive for the equal redistribution of Steem amongst more users. Everybody will have a chance to buy in cheap. Problem is that nobody likes buying an asset that is going down every week.
In this scenario, it’s very important that the developers don’t sell. If they do, then in 3 months they won’t have Steem left and no reason to develop anymore. Steemit will be dead as far as I can see.
If everybody sells, including developers, this will not end well.
Scenario two: Nobody sells.
If nobody sells the price of Steem will probably go up because of the lower inflation rate but left is the problem that all the Steem power will be in the hands of a few. I think this will withhold new users to join or it will be perceived as unfair by current users. Basically, the same problem we have now.
Scenario three: Some sell, some don’t.
Investors that want out can do this in 3 months. Investors that have faith in the platform will stay invested.
The price of Steem will go down but less violent as in scenario one. If there is enough interest from new users (buying up the Steem hitting the market) the price might even stay the same.
In this scenario, it’s also very important that the developers don’t sell. For the same reasons as scenario one. The developers won’t have Steem left and no reason to develop anymore. Steemit will be dead.
Development will play a major role in attracting new users. It’s the most important thing we need right now.
I like this scenario the best. It redistributes allot of Steem to more users and gives developers an incentive to keep developing because they hold Steem power and will profit from this once Steemit becomes a success.
What’s needed for scenario three to happen:
- Reassurance from developers.
- Find a way for developers to earn (good) money while not powering down. (We all need an income.)
- Attract more users through development.
- Some investors need to sell Steem.
Mark
Follow Me @exyle
In the past developers could make money by posting status updates. Yet that was also back when the payouts were worth a lot of money. It actually made quite a few developers start to make big plans for steemit, steem, and the blockchain. Some of those developers are now finding that funding their ideas is no longer possible. Hopefully that changes. :)
I remember those days. But it will be a while before we get there again (if ever).
I think it's important for existing invested developers to stay invested (aka not powering down). But there must be a reward that will keep them going if they can't sell, besides the chance of an increasing Steem price. Everybody has bills to pay and developing takes allot of time. A reward will also attract new developers (that have no Steem power). Finding the money is the question.
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