Quick Update Regarding User Retention
At first glance this chart looks really bad, users continue to sign up but activity has fallen or remained flat. The activity per user was hit significantly from both sides.
Up until a couple of days ago we had a significant number of fake account signups. We were able to slow, but not eliminate, this signup abuse by adding Google's reCAPTCHA. You can visibly see the reduction in the rate of signup the past several days.
User Account Spam
In addition to accounts being created by abusing our signup offer, many people have been creating and mining accounts. Name squatting due to STEEM DNS has also caused many accounts to be created for this purpose.
Voting and Posting Spam
Over the past month we have been systematically deploying solutions that mitigate spam. We have imposed stronger bandwidth limits, minimal voting thresholds, and reputation systems. The result of this anti-spam measure is a net reduction in votes, posts, and replies.
Conclusion
It is tempting to look at these charts and deceive ourselves into believing there are 80K real accounts or that all the voting, posting, and replying activity in July was real. Believing these things reinforces our own biases and desire to see Steem grow overnight.
The problem is, if we let ourselves believe that lie, then we must also believe that Steem is losing traction / retention. All of a sudden our "harmless" self-deception has us in panic mode as it appears something has come unhinged.
The more realistic way of viewing things is to greatly discount the number of accounts by removing duplicate miners, name squatters, and anyone inactive. This will give us daily active users which is around 1200 and weekly active users which is around 8000. Then filter all of the spam / automated activity from the month to get a better signal of organic use by real people.
After doing these things you will see that Steem is in fact growing, quality is improving, and the sun is shining on all things Steem.
A lot of people are complaining and panicking, I know Steemit will grow, changes are being made. Things are improving. People need to
CALM DOWN!
I'm glad you posted this!
Most just panic because of the price.
Here I panic cause I can't purchase more steem currently. :P
Haha - Kaylin and I already had the "who cares about the price in Beta just stick with it for the long haul" talk on our pages, knowing it's going to grow exponentially with real users in no time. What I can't wait for is an interface to buy more Steem that's "so easy a caveman can do it!"
Right now I'm stuck waiting 7 days for my $25 to get from my bank to Coinbank's system to buy Bitcoin, then convert that to Steem. If my cyber-defense buddy (seriously, what he does for a living) hadn't walked me through the Coinbase/Bitcoin/Steem transaction via FB messenger, Id've probably been too scared to even try. I know it's all coming tho because the community is making it happen. I'll be patient.
I wish I could even finish up signing up for my Coinbase account, it won't fricken accept my verification ... I tried taking pictures with my phone, webcam, and a Nikon 5300 with no luck, and their customer service was of no use.
Anyone got any suggestions for a good service to go between bitcoins/usd and steem??? I mostly want to buy some steem to power up with.
Well if coinbase is bringing no joy, consider circle.
The good news is the reason for the concern and excitement is that apparently a lot of people really do care what happens to steemit. I like that...
I agree, I think the mainstream audience just needs some time and maybe a little nudge for them to realise the potential benefits of a platform like Steemit could have on society and humanity. Also there needs to be a fundamental shift in thinking, which can be difficult for mere mortals like myself. I agree that we need to just give it some time and see where this vision takes us. In the mean time let's enjoy our status here as an early adopter guys and contribute to the community in whatever way we can! As I suspect things might change a bit when everyone else arrives :)
agreed!
I disagree. While the number of account doubles, the number of post has decreased in the absolute term. Therefore, we should admit at least one of the followings: 1) Users are leaving and/or 2) Users are less participating.
Here are my suggestions:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@clayop/make-people-happier-and-let-steemit-succeed
@clayop
I disagree.
When I first found Steemit I was aimlessly posting as much as I could just to be noticed, because I didn't know what the site wanted or needed. Then after reading some articles by much smarter people, I began to only worry about the quality of my work.
Yes, the amount of content I post has dramatically decreased, but I am much more engaged now than I was back then and I fell very successful.
I imagine my story is not uncommon here, because I am also witnessing a lot more high quality content, by people who used to post anything and everything in an attempt to find their place.
That totally makes sense. I was posting a lot of old content to see what stuck in the beginning, then the newest FAQ came out insinuating that only 4 posts a day could get maximum payout, so, I dialed it back to and started putting up 2 to 3 posts a day and adjusting to follow some patterns from successful users regarding the type of content. My results were that I have ended up in the top 25 in payouts and I've only been here two weeks. I agree with your assessment.
@markrmorrisjr
You are doing very well.
I just noticed your The Anarchist's Almanac series last night, so I followed you, although I haven't had a chance to read it yet. At first glance I noticed that you have a very different writing style than me and I find that really fascinating.
I grew up writing for the stage. Anarchist's Almanac is probably my most traditionally crafted piece, of what I've shared on here. From 8th grade on I was also home schooled, so, I developed my "style" if I have one, from reading classics and then bringing it into a more modern setting. I've been writing professionally full time for about 8 years now, but this is my first chance to actually focus on my fiction instead of constantly worrying about freelance client deadlines. You should check out the Hunting Bigfoot story, which I will be expanding soon, it's pretty different.
@markrmorrisjr
I was the complete opposite, I received a terrible education and I still have trouble reading, but I wrote for a creative piece for a newspaper for about a year. I continued to write screenplays, but Steemit is a different beast altogether. This is my first time writing in such fast paced in environment, where instant feedback is freely given. It affords me the opportunity to experiment and learn different techniques.
I will definitely check out your Hunting Bigfoot series. What type of freelance stuff were you working on before?
There was significant posting spam too, which has declined for various reasons (and Dan addressed this specifically in his post!). I've pointed out before that I believe the most abuse-resistant metrics we have are edits and deletes, because there is little incentive for spammers to ever do those things, and little reason for actual user behavior regarding those to change systematically. If you look at those metrics you see limited growth but no real decline (ignoring one-time bump in July after the mega-payout).
In fact those metrics probably understate growth by a small degree because of a change that was made that disallowed edits after the first (usually 24 hours) payout. Previously that was allowed. So this would tend to reduce the number of edits over time relative to usage.
Downvoted to remove/reduce platform updates from reward pool payouts. Please implement an alternative method of visibility for these.
I also think there was a surge of users who came on expecting instant riches in the wake of the massive price rise of STEEM these people had unrealistic expectations and I think they may well have left. They should not be counted as serious users either.
The whole point is trying to get quality content and I would have to agree that although posts seem to be decreasing the spam content has reduced and the poorly thought out posts also seem to be less.
We shouldn't get complacent but I don't think there is a reason to panic either.
Well said.
I think that also a lot of users left or stopped posting, becasue they were not actually appreciated for their quality content. Thet spend all day writing a great article to get 100 votes and $0.1, while some superpowerful user posts photos of his cat and gets $1000 from whales just for being a whale.
Agreed. The overall quality - IMHO - is up. I have even stopped making blog posts until I have what I feel to be something really good.
Edits were 2,300 art 8/2 and 2,294 yesterday. Actually it is a slight decline. However, in terms of edits per account, it is neaely halved. If we assume 90% of newly created accounts are fake ones, it still decreased by 10%.
We don't know the number of fake accounts but it may very well be >90%. Please reread Dan's post and consider all the different reasons that accounts may be created that don't correspond to an actual person (including something he didn't mention -- actual people who do sign up but do so multiple times).
Furthermore some portion of users dropping off is normal and expected, especially in the time immediately after signup. It isn't ever going to be for everyone; some will try it and not find that it is their thing. It is impossible to ever achieve success with every single user.
The problem is not enough real users signing up. If we use your number of 90% fake, that gives us about 150-200 "real" users per day signing up. That is nowhere near enough to get us anywhere at all. And by "problem" here, I mean just low growth right now. If in the future enhancements to the platform and greater exposure increases that 150-200 (or whatever the number), then it won't be a problem that the growth rate was low early.
What I'm witnessing through my friends and family who are reading my blog and my parents blog and trying to sign up, is that the very first steps to registration are not user friendly.
A few weeks ago I wrote about this problem and proposed a solution to this but there another issue not mentioned in that post which is the Facebook sign up. While most people I know couldn't get passed the password to register, some simply don't like logging in through Facebook.
All the optimistic interpretations require a decrease of real users, which is not desirable.
@clayop
I completely agree. I do not find the current level of growth encouraging, though apparently Dan has some data that paints a different picture. I asked him for more detail, and it will be interesting to see what that is if he provides it.
My only disagreement (or perhaps questioning is a better word) with your interpretation is whether the issue is less growth in real users (bad) or a decline in user participation (also bad). In reality it is probably some of both, but I do feel you have been painting too harsh a picture on the latter, especially when you presented the chart from Dan's post without accounting to any meaningful degree for the issues both he and I have identified with it (fake accounts, antispam system changes, etc.)
I find users might be leaving because they hear they can make all this money on here, only to have no votes and their post go unnoticed or not understand how they have more votes then others that made money and theirs reads 0.00$ Only to see stupid shit make more money then someone's hard work, can make one go back to what worked for them i.e Facbook/twitter/Reddit
There is going to be a certain amount of attrition as people show up, throw crap at the wall to see if it sticks, find no one likes their poorly conceived drool here any better than the last place, they don't get rich and they leave. Those who are adding substantive content are either here for payout, or building an audience, or ideally, both. Those are the ones we want to keep. They will make the platform stronger and recruit new users.
Front end stats agree... there is no downtrend...
https://steemit.com/steemit/@gavvet/the-state-of-steemit-com-growth
Totally on point, Dan. You, the founders of Steemit, have been getting a raw deal lately as the platform is growing and politics are now starting to come into play. But given these interpretations of the stats you have shown above, it is clear to see that your newborn baby is just beginning to take it's first few steps before actually learning to walk. This is how early on we are in the life of Steemit, we just need a little more patience, that's all.
Things are looking good now and I have no doubt they will improve tenfold in the coming months as issue upon issue is slowly ironed out one by one.
I am happy to read this :) Steemit is getting better and better because of you guys! Thank you.
It's definitely the community itself that will allow this platform to thrive. Very excited to be a part of this while it's growing and coming to fruition!
I've been looking at the metric of "unique authors per day", which I think has been relatively stable over time.
There were some spikes and dips, but we're definitely not hemorrhaging users and the sky is not falling. I've got a lot of faith that if we continue to improve the platform, all of these numbers will continue to increase ;)
(this chart shows "unique authors" who either wrote a post or replied to a post with a comment on each given day)
Looks like a lot of steady content and participation to me too.. That's pretty good!!
Wow, 2000 to 3000 unique authors each day, including comments. Wow. That is so much smaller a pool than I would have ever guessed. That's motivating to me, though. There's really opportunity to get established here and not just be overwhelmed by all the new content streaming by. And it helps put all the posts about 'why am I not getting noticed' in perspective. Thanks!
There absolutely is, it's a great time to be getting involved in the platform. I have no doubt these numbers will increase as we improve the experience. If you're going to get started, just know it'll take some perseverance and your early posts might be hit or miss. Building up a list of followers seems to be one of the key growth metrics you should watch (as opposed to payouts).
Thanks for that advice. I'm looking for long-term engagement about specific topics, so I appreciate that it will be a process that will take some time! Here's to the future! : )
If you have data supporting the bolded statmeent than please share it. My own analysis agrees on the point of fake accounts, voting spam, etc. but does not agree on the point of there being meaningful ongoing growth.
This is misleading, although your next sentence explains it better. To expand for clarity, there are still a "significant number" of fake account signups. No one should be mislead by continued growth in registered users that is not matched with growth in usage into thinking that indicates a huge drop in activity per real user. It does not.
I have been tracking user activity by level of Vesting for the last two and a half weeks ago. (Source: Steemd Distribution page)
Daily active users under <0.1 MV has fallen dramatically - from over 4,000 to under 2,000. This loss is surely spam / bot accounts.
However, daily active users above >0.1 MV is rising gradually. I'd expect a majority of these to be actual accounts which contribute to Steemit.
Facebook has been able to hook users by the "like" system, which is very addictive. Now, "abusing" something like that may be morally questionable, but my thinking is that a popup notification for every upvote is something I'd like to see. The point behind this is that it would give users a "reward" every time they get upvoted, even if the upvote in question is "super valuable" money-wise.
Also, I made a post about adding "view counts" to posts. It'd be useful for us to know how many people read our posts, even if they don't upvote.
There would be two effects: it would guide us to make content thatb more people like, and it would give us something to "follow". People play online games because we have this "innate" need to grow, develop and evolve. Seeing our view counts go up would be hooking.
A popup notification on upvote is a great idea, especially one that could be turned on or off. Viewcounts, too. I like all your thinking on this topic.
I agree 100% with everything you've said. For the long term, steady organic growth is much more crucial than "going viral". Loyal Steemians will continue to slowly gather and learn how the platform works and how to positively contribute to the experience. While phases of people rushing to signup, possibly urged on by rapid price increases, are just noise. Most of these people will disappear along with the crowd that accompanied them when they fear the fad is dying out, and they'll move on to the next "big thing". Of course Steem is more than a fad, it's unique in so many ways beyond most other blockchain-centric technologies, but most of these people are in it for a quick buck, and don't take the time to learn what Steemit truly offers.