Is Steemit Dying?

in #steemit6 years ago (edited)

https://tool.steem.world/Post/Stat
Steemit Posts Authors.pngTotal Payouts.png
Steem Price ($).png

https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/bitchute.com
Bitchute Popularity.png

Much as I hate to have to post this, I feel someone's got to do it so that steemiens are aware of the situation, in the hope that the reason/s for this can be ascertained and corrective measures taken to remedy the situation.

I've been looking at a few statistics. Now I'm no statistician but the stats for Steemit don't look good. Indeed it looks to me that if it continues on the same trajectory the value of Steem could well fall to zero.

I realize that cryptos in general have been taking a bit of a beating lately but I haven't seen any other crypto decline to this extent.

Besides that we have that huge drop off in posts and authors.

I also took a glimpse at the trajectory of Bitchute (above) and noticed it was steadily rising.

This seems somewhat counter intuitive. Whereas you have two very similar platforms, one that pays it's participants and the other which doesn't. One would naturally expect that the paying platform would outperform the non paying one, but that doesn't appear to be the case here.

I must admit when I first read the Steemit White paper I strongly suspected that the Steem currency wouldn't be able to compete with coins like Bitcoin. Even though it could apparently far outperform Bitcoin in speed and efficiency it lacked one of it's most important key features.i.e. the hard cap on the amount of coins that can ever be created which makes it deflationary by design(Satoshi was wiser than most give him credit for) whereas Steem is inflationary by design.

I wrote a small article on this issue called Bitcoin and Deflation at: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@amd64/bitcoin-and-deflation

While there other issues which could discourage the use of Steemit such as the lack of a view count(so you have no idea how many views any of your posts get, if any)which can be very frustrating and like being in a rifle range and never being able to know whether you've hit the target or not.
There's also no private messaging which makes communication with other participants very difficult, and there seems to be a lot of inequity in the system.

There's some possibility that some of these issues could be causing a decline in user ship which could in turn be partially to blame for the drop in the value of Steem. However I believe It's almost certainly the other way round.

If you think about it...Why would anyone buy Steem? You wouldn't want to buy it to hold it if you had any sense, since it's value will decline over time due to it's inflationary nature. (although it's inflation rate is decreasing dramatically due to recent changes to the system there are no plans to reduce it to zero or below, which is what would be required to make it competitive on the crypto market) So the only reason I can think of would be to invest in Steemit in the form of Steem Power.

Now...Why would anyone sell Steem? Well once you earn it on Steemit, unless you want to use it to power up, you'd be be wise to convert it to Bitcoin if you want to save it or convert that to fiat if you want to spend it.

So if we look at this from the point of view of the crypto market as a whole, what we'd see is a whole lot of Steem being sold but not so much being bought i.e the supply is greater than the demand. As long as this is the case the price/value can only go down.

I believe the Steem blockchain was created by Daniel Larimer who also created Bitshares and Eos. While Dan is certainly a genius when it comes to designing crypto currency systems it seems he's not so bright when it comes to crypto economics e.g. despite Bitshares being around for years it's currently valued at $0.01. and Steem at $0.7318.

So if the value of Steem goes much lower I can see a lot of the big players bailing out and putting their SP on the market. This will only cause steem to crash even further. Probably down to 1cent like Bitshares.

The only way I can see out of this dilemma is to reduce and/or cap the the supply of Steem such that it becomes deflationary. Then it could hold it's own even as a stand alone currency in the market where it could be highly competitive due to it's speed an efficiency.

Then with a few tweaks like View Counts and Private messaging we could see a major revival of Steemit.

Please Resteem this post to try and get it some visibility, as it could possibly save the day if see by enough people.

Thanks

Sort:  

Thanks for sharing the perspective. To turn a blind eye on the dwindling interest and falling activities on the platform will be foolish. You are right to point out the situation so that more people are aware and will probably think about how they can help the community.

Personally, I am still bullish about what this platform can become. There is more utility for STEEM after HF20 as you need to spend resource credits to interact with the platform. Although normal users like us probably won't need to purchase more STEEM, application/bots developers will certainly need the SP to be able to interact with the blockchain meaningfully and allow users to sign up for their applications.

Since signing up for an account no longer require STEEM delegation, I am anticipating that many of those apps integrated with the Steem platform will start their sign up process. I am hoping this will bring in a large inflow of new users.

In addition, I believe these many of these apps will be self-funded or externally funded. This will mean that these apps will be bringing in external funds to the ecosystem, thereby boosting the price.

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To the question in your title, my Magic 8-Ball says:

Yes

Hi! I'm a bot, and this answer was posted automatically. Check this post out for more information.

What Bitchute has, that Steemit (and other platforms built on Steem) doesn't, is constant exposure from online personalities that have a loyal following.

Guys like @styxhexenhammer, @stefan.molyneux or more recently Alex Jones. They constantly mention about their Bitchute channels to tens and hundreds of thousands of people.

We have @styxhexenhammer, @stefan.molyneux and a few other big names here too.

you'd be be wise to convert it to Bitcoin if you want to save it

Or convert to SBD.

The fact is there are reasons to invest in Steem. For instance one major (shit posting) account in particular invested tens of thousands of dollars when the price was low.

It then created a huge volume of (shit) posts and self voted all of them. That account is now a millionaire...

I don't think Steem is dying per se, simply because of the fact stated above. There will always be people who swoop in to take advantages of low prices which will eventually push them back up.

For instance I saw the price go down to $0.10 in late 2016/early 2017 (can't remember exactly when) and as it was crashing I cashed out all my Steem thinking that it was dying.

That was such a massive mistake, not only did I sell at the lowest possible. But the amount I would have been able to buy would have made me very rich indeed.

My guess is that it will slide to around the $0.50 mark, then loads of whales and would-be whales will start buying and powering up. Then we'll see a price rise.

I think this yo-yoing will continue for some time to come...

Of course this is just a speculative guess and I could be wrong, and you right! :-)

Cg

The Alexa rank is not that important (that only measures the visits to the seemit website which is only one application built on top of the Steem blockchain).

For that reason the view count is not that relevant, a post can be viewed on different websites (like busy.org for example).

The Steemit website could become irrelevant but others could easily surpass it (Dtube or Steemmonsters come to mind or the multitud of wordpress blogs that use steempress to connect to the blockchain).

Value wise steem has outperformed bitcoin since March of 2017 (just look at the price in Satoshis).

You might be interested in reading a post I made a few days ago on my other account:

https://steemit.com/steem/@apofis/random-thoughts-on-inflation

The Steem blockchain is one of the most active blockchains in the world (check out https://blocktivity.info/). If Steem is dying imagine what will become of all the other ones that pretty much have zero activity.

By the way the price of Bitshare is above 11 cents not one cent (it was about 0.003 USD at the begining of 2017 if I recall correctly)

Oh yes,,,you're right. Sorry about that, I don't know where I got the .01 from.

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