Two Choices: Crypto-Economics Or The Useless Class
I am going to try and not be too pessimistic in this post because I do believe the future is bright. However, there are some things we need to be mindful about which will impart responsibility upon all of us. The reason I state this is because I believe we have the solution.
As I delve further into the world of machine learning, I realize what is truly taking place. It is also why the titans of technology who are working with this are so alarmed. Long story short, the potential job loss forecasts are not overblown. The truth is we honestly do not have any idea how quickly this will move. I feel, the further I go, we are underestimating the capability if anything.
Before delving into this, I should clarify a few things. The term "artificial intelligence" is a catchall phrase. It is not a technology per se since there are many categories underneath it. Machine learning, deep learning, voice recognition, and image recognition are all part of artificial intelligence. All these areas tie into what is starting to disrupt society in a major way. It is also at the core of the employment apocalypse that many are projecting.
In the past, for a computer to do something, a human had to code it. This was slow and a prolonged process albeit very beneficial for us to advance computing forward. Realizing the limitations with that, researchers started to undergo a process of figuring out ways for the computers to program themselves. This is what is meant by machine learning. Some parameters are set up along with initial code put in and away we go. Depending upon the method of learning, humans will interject at certain points to assist the process.
Which brings me to deep learning. This is the approach that is being used for autonomous cars. Deep learning entails feeding in a huge amount of data for the computer to sift through. This is how a computer learns the difference between a cat and a horse. 3M pictures of each are feed into the computer and the data is laid down in layers. By the end, the computer has essentially a daisy chain of data from which to access.
Many traditional AI experts do not feel that deep learning is actually intelligence. They claim that it is nothing more than data mining. They feel that it is all based upon computing power and nothing else. Therefore, they do not believe the advancement is in the AI realm.
Perhaps they are correct. Nevertheless, that does not take away from the impact of this process.
Here is the problem with their viewpoint: computers are getting incredibly fast. The United States just put Summit online last month. It is the world's fastest computer ringing in at 200 quadrillion calculations per second. This device is twice as fast as anything in the world.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-us-again-has-worlds-most-powerful-supercomputer/
This is a title that will not be held for long. Expectations are that, by 2021, we will see the world's first exascale computer. This is 5 times faster than Summit.
https://www.top500.org/news/first-us-exascale-supercomputer-now-on-track-for-2021/
The point is, who knows where we will be in the late 2020's with this technology. Even if "learning" is limited to raw processing power, we will have it in droves. Couple this with the amount of data we are producing each year and it is easy to see how much of an impact this can make.
Of course, this is not to say that the other areas of machine learning and AI will not advance. The evolutionary approach to machine learning, as an example, is making great strides.
This all leads me to the conclusion that we are going to see some serious changes over the next 10-12 years. Jobs are going to be eliminated due to technology. There simply is no way around it. Whatever the task, we will see the advancement of computing be able to handle it. Our hardware alone is advancing at a pace to provide that.
Here is where we see the emergence of the useless class.
This is a term that only started being used. It describes the ten of millions of people who are going to be useless to the corporate economy. Since so many jobs will be replaced by technology, and at such a rapid pace, people eliminated simply will not have the skills to adapt.
Here is a sampling:
Paralegals: useless
Radiologists: useless
Transportation drivers: useless
Market analysts: useless
Systems analysts: useless
Accountants: useless
Network administrators: useless
Realtors: useless
Customer service reps: useless
People in manufacturing: useless
Financial Planners: useless
XRay/MRI Techs: useless
Copywriters: useless
Warehouse Personnel: useless
This is just a small list that I threw together. There are many industries that are going to be disrupted which might not be completely eliminated, yet will cause massive downsizing. The financial arena comes to mind. AmazonGo is already automating most of the grocery experience. Do you not believe that technology will not adopted by companies like Wal-Mart and Home Depot? Of course it will.
The mantra out of the corporate world is that they are not eliminating jobs, just the repetitive tasks that bore workers. By eliminating them, it allows workers to concentrate on higher, more stimulating activities. Don't buy into that. These corporations are looking to dump people as quickly as they can.
They will not hesitate to enlarge the useless class. After all, they are intent on creating it. They do not want workers since that takes away from the quarterly profits. If they can do all the work without people (or fewer ones) their profits soar.
This is where the STEEM community has a responsibility. We are early adopters into crypto-economics. Over the next decade, we will see tokens take over. The global economy is going to be tokenized. Early adopters stand to suffer the least when the technological fireworks really start.
We are sitting upon an absolute goldmine. STEEM is going to be one of the leading blockchains for a long time once all the developments discussed emerges. Therefore, we need to do all we can to make sure we are spreading the word about it. Tens of millions of people are going to be suffering a lot more than they are now. We have the solution to their problems: tokens.
Cryptocurrency turns useless into useful. The reason this happens is because people can be rewarded and incentivized for whatever they do. Taking care of grandma is not of value to the corporate world unless you stick her in a nursing home. Of course, to the family, it could have enormous value. Same with raising kids. Or volunteering. Or a thousand of other things we do in life. They all have value and are of use.
The difference is society benefits, not the corporations.
And this is what crypto-economics offers. The ability to decentralize away from the corporations and their control to a way of life that rewards everyone. We move the resources in the hands of a few while giving it to the many.
I believe most of those who read my posts understand this. Unfortunately, we are only a small, minute percentage of society. Most of the world is totally unaware of what is coming. This is a warning. Overall, it is of benefit because people are living in slavery. Thus, breaking the chains by emerging from the system is imperative.
Yet it will not be without pain.
This is where Steemians (and all crypto hodlers) can assist by spreading the message. While most will not want to hear it, bet the ranch when the next recession hits, they will be open to what you are saying.
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Another very insightful article. I wonder what the corporate end game is for when no one is left who can buy their products. What will it do to their stock price when there is merely a contraction in spending that precedes the collapse of consumer spending, when stock prices are all based on the presumption of accelerating future earnings?
I also believe (and the evidence shows) that more and more people will join the useless class as automation continues. However, the evidence also suggests that Steem, at least in its present incarnation, is not the solution. The Gini index on Steem is close to 1, making it more unequal than the most unequal country in terms of fiat currencies. What good is it to replace control by large corporations and governments with control by a few whales? The idea of tokenizing the economy however, does hold promise. Money and prices are just signals that allow distributed decision making to make the best use of scarce resources. Once we are so efficient through automation that most of us won’t need to work, humans are no longer scarce resources, yet we are the primary users of the scarce resources, such as energy, food, and land. At that point, a monthly or daily income given to all just becomes a number of votes for how each of us want the automation to use scarce resources. Some may want to use their income for travel, some for a bigger house, etc. We are going to have to go beyond current fossilized thinking of basing income on a person’s productivity—unless we want a major revolution. After all, when most of us can’t do productive work, who will buy the products made by corporations?
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Of course missing from this equation is this aspect. All the jobless will have to be severely repressed in order to keep them from expressing discontent in socially disruptive ways. So, an autocratic (world government) would have to rule over all these unhappy people to keep them in line. Of course, a lot of people think we're headed there anyway. And what about the "free market". As you indicate, consumers are an essential part of a working economy. Income will have to be provided, work or no work. I have further thoughts about the "useless" class, which I will post in response to the blog, above.
With respect to placating the jobless, I think what we are seeing in the U.S. and Europe is actually a different strategy: shift the blame away from the real reasons to one or more groups of people. In the US, the Republican party, large corporations through legislative capture, and the conservative media, have at least half of the population convinced that poor people, immigrants (legal or illegal), and liberals are to blame for their situation. A story in the NY Times today just pointed out that profits have skyrocketed, businesses are having trouble hiring, consumer prices (across the board, but especially for healthcare and education) are on the rise, yet worker income has barely budged. It is worth noting that many of the big tech companies (FANG) spoke out against many things that the Trump administration proposed, but not the huge corporate tax cut. At a time when we really should demand that these companies do more to support the countries they sell in, they are doing everything to amass and concentrate their wealth. Look at Amazon shopping for deals from cities for its second headquarters. Of course, the tax cuts comes at the expense of social programs and infrastructure spending at exactly the time when more and more people need those programs. All the democratic party seems to be able to do is keep saying "Bad Trump." I see no attempt by them to actually clarify and address the real problems. My hope is that technology such as crypto and steemit will help here, but we clearly need a lot more experimentation with what works and doesn't work. At the same time, major corporate and political powers will definitely move to ban, limit, and then ultimately exploit and distort the new platforms so that they can hold on to power.
So much of what you say I agree with. But it's not up to the Democrats. In most cases, as we saw in the last election, they represent powerful interests that want to keep control. They distract us with cultural wars--use Trump as a cartoon arch enemy, as he uses guns and religion (also immigrants and the poor).
I do place my hopes in crypto and Steemit to bypass power centers. Also place hope in the free expression that is allowed to flow here. Increasingly, censorship prevails on other platforms. We need decentralized sources of information so people can decide for themselves which ideas are valuable, and what information is "fake". We really do need to grow these sorts of alternative news sources. It's not a coincidence that every autocracy, as soon as it is established, curbs speech.
I think it will be more socially acceptable to work less in the future, or maybe not at all if you work tokenization properly. Maybe we only work a few hours a day, or maybe only a few days a week, but still get paid a living wage. Definitely different types of jobs then we are use to right now. In any case I often dream about the future and wonder how all of this is going to work out. But like you I believe we are entering the age of abundance rather than a regression backwards. Its an exciting time to be alive, kind of like when automobiles and electricity were invented, we are about to be again thrusted into a higher level of technology and hopefully civilization!
Another great article :)
You are @jaisaluja. Careful to come near in future. i agree also. good job @taskmaster4450. thanks for share.
@taskmaster4450 Now all of a sudden I feel I need to acquire more STEEM Power after Reading This. Some people may ask why I feel that way ? The reason I feel that way is because the more STEEM Power you acquire the more you will have to create even more Steem Power......It's like a Snowball rolling down a Mountain, it gets Bigger......
I would agree. SP is going to be like oxygen.
It also helps with the growth of SMT accumulation when they come out.
Everything is centered around that. That is why smaller accounts working up towards Minnow is crucial.
SP will be very hard to come by down the road.
To listen to the audio version of this article click on the play image.
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So apart from Steem blockchain, how else do you think the masses would be earning their bread and butter?
I believe that everything we see around us will be tokenized. Watch an ad, get a token, Volunteer, get a token. Go to the gym, more tokens. Raise children, get a token.
It will be at the core of advertising/marketing. Heck even the kids will be getting tokens via advertisements.
Plus I expect more token programs like Manna to pop up.
And what about the few who retain their jobs? What do you think are those jobs?
This is a seriously interesting topic to ponder upon.
All people do, every day, is structure their time: the thing you do in the morning, the thing you do in the afternoon, the thing you do in the evening, sleep, and repeat.
For a sense of well-being, you have to feel useful. Even if you have a million idle things to do, if you feel useless, you get depressed.
And how are people going to eat if they are useless? Do we tax the few who run the machines to hell to give charity to the useless? That sounds like a recipe for trouble, because they will still be useless, and the ones who are taxed at 90 percent rates, or whatever, to pay for all this will be furious.
What is the solution? I am at a loss. Jordan Peterson suggests that everyone with an IQ of less than 100 will be useless. That is half the people on the planet. The article above suggests it will be MUCH MORE than that, since even smart people like accountants, radiologists and market analysts will also be useless. In fact, the suggestion implies that only 10 percent of people or so will still be useful.
Unless those 10 percent of people are very careful to find things for the other 90 percent to do, the 90 percent will do something very bad to the 10 percent, as happened in the French Revolution, when the people had no bread to eat.
The smart people had better start thinking right now what the less smart people will be doing in the future, and come up with some suggestions how they can be useful, otherwise, there's serious trouble ahead for our children's children.
While we wait and hope for a solution, we can always turn to the wisdom of the evergreen and wonderful Irving Berlin:
"There may be trouble ahead
But while there's music and moonlight and love and romance
Let's face the music and dance."
These useless people could do lots of things with their time. Play with their kids, jog, relax, paint, take up a hobby or two. We need to think outside the box. Right now we are so used to rewarding people based on economic productivity that it is hard to imagine how to cope with an age of abundance. Imagine the reward pool on Steem being split equally among all users and then all goods and services priced using only Steem. One wouldn’t even have to transfer the Steem: when a user uses Steem to buy something, it could simply disappear. As long as prices reflect scarcity of resources, this could work.
What jobs do you think those smart 10% do and will be doing?
They will be designing virtual reality games for the 90 percent to play, in which the 90 percent dream that they have jobs and families deep inside a Matrix.
Meanwhile the 10percent will also design invulnerable robot bodies, to house their giant brains, so that they will be ready for when the revolution comes lol.
Scary shit man!
I'd love to be part of that 10% hahaha!
The remaining 90% seems like sheeple :O
Or rather I'd try turning those 90% into 10% if it is possible.
Lol yeah.
A more serious answer to what jobs the 10 percent will be doing can be found by thinking about Steemit.
Machines aren't good at creativity, for example, making people laugh, entertaining, singing, art.
They also aren't good at coming up with original ideas, like the author of this article.
So artists and scientists, leaders and decision makers, doctors and carers, all have the best chance of not being phased out by machines.
All repetitive jobs will be coded first.
But make no mistake, after this phase is complete, Phase 3 is Skynet and The Matrix. You will probably store your tokens in your brain, think a thought, and it will become reality, as machines serve you in return for deducting a token or two. ;)
cryptocurriencies are the future......
I agree with you. We need to be careful about what's coming in near future!