STEEM: Whales Are Losing Their Power....The System Is Not Broken...Report through 5/31/2018

in steem •  6 months ago

I last reported the numbers in a post that covered through April 30, 2018.

https://steemit.com/steem/@taskmaster4450/steem-whales-are-losing-their-power-the-system-is-not-broken-report-through-4-30-2018

Special thanks tho @arcange who runs these numbers everyday.

Now that we are at end of month, time to post the numbers again.

I added the two previous months running- for comparison purposes.

Here is the breakdown.

3/31/2018

The total MVests here is 385,184.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 61.74%
Orcas 17.74%
Dolphins 11.44%
Minnows 5.84%
Red Fish 1.34%
Inactive 1.91%

4/30/2018

The total MVests here is 387,333.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 61.74%
Orcas 17.47%
Dolphins 11.49%
Minnows 5.96%
Red Fish 1.34%
Inactive 1.98%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales +0%
Orcas -1.5%
Dolphins +.43%
Minnows +2.05%
Red Fish +0%
Inactive +3.66%

5/31/2018

The total MVests here is 387,915.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 61.82%
Orcas 16.93%
Dolphins 11.83%
Minnows 6.02%
Red Fish 1.37%
Inactive 2.02%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales +.13%
Orcas -3.09%
Dolphins +2.96%
Minnows +1.01%
Red Fish +2.24%
Inactive +2.02%

3/31/2018

4/30/2018

5/31/2018

So what does this all tell us.

To start: THE SYSTEM IS WORKING AS IT IS DESIGNED!!!!

The rich are not getting richer. In fact, more of the pie is going to the smaller accounts.

On March 31th, the Whales and Orcas had 306,125 MVests (79.48% of the total); on April 30, 2018, 306,820 MVests (79.21% of the total)...a decrease of .34%....On May 31, 2018, 305,493 MVests (78.75% of the total)...a decrease of .58%.

The final thing that I wanted to mention is this number: 10,013.

That is the total number of people who are Minnow (around 500SP) or above.

My friends, that is called being an early adopter....


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I'm glad you consider Minnows with over 500 SP early adopters. What are orcas and dolphins considered? I don't see that guidance anywhere. Nevertheless, glad that the pie is getting more and more distributed to the smaller accounts.

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Sorry but there are no minnows with under 500 SP :D You must get to 500 SP just to become a minnow, no exceptions! Just like in the military, you must still earn your lowest of ranks!

I would like to request that you would edit or find a way to remove this post. I don't think you are aware of this or I don't believe you would have posted it, so allow me a moment to explain why this post is very dangerous.

This graph operates on an account to account basis, meaning that the whale's who have many accounts will have sizeable portions of their influence in other accounts, which would then in the graph show up in wrong section, making things look far more balanced than they are.

If this graph was not showing information about accounts, and was instead showing it about individual steemit users, then we would no doubt see that a very small amount of users have control of the vast majority of the STEEM.

By publishing this post, you are leading people to believe that the distribution of STEEM on the network is working, when it no longer is. It has been reversed since the inception of bidbots and is now being concentrated in the wallets of a few users (albeit dispersed over many accounts and wallets).

I think at the moment there are many people who are trying to decide whether vote-selling should be accepted or not, and this is exactly the type of post that will lead them to decide that it should be accepted. But it should not, for every single time someone uses a bidbot, our ability to earn without using them is weakened, and the people who done this to us get more powerful and will have an even easier time exploiting us.

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Thank you for the comment @son-of-satire.

To start, you are correct, this graph is on an account basis, not an ownership basis. If you know a way to find out the ownership basis, I would love to find out about that and write about it.

As for the data itself, it is showing exactly what I claim. I looked back as far as, I believe, March 2017 and every time period I looked at said the same thing. Smaller accounts are growing in number, they are getting a larger share of the pie, and are increasing in MVests. That is what the data shows. Who owns the accounts, I cannot say.

The complaints about bidbots is relatively recent...at least to the degree we are experiencing. If I looked at the data 15 months ago, why did it tell the same thing then.

In short, without proof that the only ones profiting are bidbots, it is speculation. Are there bidbots? Without a doubt. Are some larger users on here with multiple accounts? Again, no doubt about it. Are the only accounts growing in size bidbots? That is not for certain. When you look at the number of accounts that become minnows and dolphins over the past 6-9 months, to claim most of them are bidbots is a stretch I think.

Finally, I do not use bidbot but I cannot say that the people who do are wrong. I read an article about one member (wish I could remember who it was) said it was the only way for him to get recognition when he joined since it was nothing but whales and orcas then circle voting. That is his point of view and one that I am neither confirming nor denying as factual.

I can tell you there was a guy who joined around the same time I did, and he starting using bots within a month of coming on here. His account is almost 4 times as big as mine so it is evident he benefited. Did the offset what he paid for the votes? I do not know. From my perspective they do not seem worth it but many swear by them.

By the way, this individual still uses bots for his posts.

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I think you are asking yourself the wrong questions. I did not state that no one other than bidbots are making profits. The question isn't about profits, but about the rate of distribution of STEEM across the network.

It should not take a degree in mathematics to understand that before bidbots, the STEEM was getting distributed across the network. After them, it is getting concentrated in the hands of a few users.

Yes, others may be making profits. But, profits do not safeguard this network from would be abusive tyrants unless we are making enough of them that the disparity between wealth starts to balance. But instead, we are all making the worst of us, the ones willing to hijack an entire network for their own selfish reason, the most poweful of us. By accepting bidbots and using them, we are electing and empowering oligarchs who have no regard for the community as a whole. Which is a stupid move for any community.

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I like power and money being in the control of a SMARTER and more RESPONSIBLE minority, they hold longer and add more value and are more likely to bring MORE investment into steem if one of their other ventures succeeds more than steem, for example many of these whales have EOS and since EOS has performed much better than steem, theyve been able to buy more steempower with that EOS profit, I was one of those people who did that and was able to add another 1000+ SP to my stack thanks to my EOS profits. Now imagine what I did but on a MUCH bigger scale. Big whales need that steem to re invest with, the wealthy NEED that money, they will do more with it than the poor can!

I for one, SUPPORT the rich getting richer because it makes the poor get richer too

who said steem needs to be distributed equally?

ALSO I dunno, you cant just say that this chart is ainaccurate because some of the top accounts MIGHT be owned by the same people.

lets go through them, one by one, because theres not that many accounts at the top, the top 100 accounts could easily have us going through them, and we can obviously see that there are plenty of large whales, and it isn't just Ned or Dan or some other whales in charge of all the top 100 or 200 accounts , it IS distributed very nivcely and more and more dolphins are created everyday and minnows too (people buying 500SP at least)

and ya know what? the reward pool is over a million dollars a week! We have 49 Million steem on exchanges and 78 million liquid steem out of 269 million

so theres plenty of steem for new whales and dolphins to buy their stake and so even if we do have too much in the hand sof too few, it can be spread out more over time as we sell more steem to more investors

If we get 800,000 users to just buy and power up $100 dollars worth of steem

or 80,000 users to buy and power up $1000 worth of steem, thats $80 million dollars worth, approx enough to purchae the 49 million steem available on exchanges (and only approx 78 million is liquid out of 269 million total)

so if we all just buy and power up $100 worth of steem or if all of us ACTIVE users buy and power up $1000 worth of steem we will push steem up to $100 or even $1000 each and yes the marketcap will go to the trillions maybe even 5 trillion @elgeko is that too difficult for you to imagine? lol you cant see steem as important and as large as something like the US federal government with all their trillions? well i can :)

Interesting that the whales haven't budged an inch - they are maintaining their position. Perhaps not brilliant for the platform (suggests they're feeling like now is a good time to hodl though...).

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No the last couple months they held serve. Over the last 9 months, it is a huge difference.

They key is for the smaller accounts (from Red Fish to Dolphin) to keep adding SP. This will overwhelm the system with their numbers and since 75% of the reward pool goes to authors, that means they can make big gains.

Ultimately, I see the chart completely reversed over time. The Red Fish will end up with the most SP collectively and the whales the least. It might take 3 or 4 years to get there but another 100K daily posters in the smaller categories would go a long way to changing that.

is that small change worth noticing? also, i am not sure how you think of it but can't you go and buy steem and become a minnow with high SP? For me the system is better when it allows you to grow organically on the platform. Also, a better tool for me would we how much of the reward pool share is going to minnows versus whales, because minnows or new users could be powering up and whales cashing out. the post payouts could also be increasing for whales. If the reward pool or upvotes is increasing for the minnows, then may be that is a good thing.

Not sure, if i have asked the questions clearly. it was a fleeting thought. may be the system has to assessed in more detail.

informative post thought. thank you!

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I started this in January with research back over a year. It holds the same each month. Small changes do add up. We are looking at the smaller accounts growing 1%-3% in a month...that is 12%-36% annually. And that is with the amount of posters being about the same. These numbers would be different if 100K new posters come on here each day. The reward pool would go overwhelmingly to the newer people.

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well, what you're saying sounds good and makes sense. hope it continues the same way, new people need to grow and ideally they should. thanks for clarifying!

Is xx number of MVests always corresponding to the same number of SP?
Or is there something like a moving exchange rate between those items?

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STEEM per MVest increases over time. It is payment to those who invest in the blockchain by powering up.

Someone who sells out now will have to use more STEEM in a year to get the same number of MVests. Last i checked 1 MVest was roughly 480 STEEM....

I am not sure what it is now...that was a while ago.

We still need to wait for STEEM to go up to 10$, otherwise very few minnows will be active, since they have very little to gain compared to the whales.

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If you focus only on the price to be at 10$, you will not find the motivation to keep going the momentum!

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Well said @chesatochi thats where loads of new people go wrong - dont focus on the price Steem is a long term investment

More of the pie is going to the smaller accounts?

I don't think that can be concluded based on these numbers. Cause this only shows what amount of SP these groups have. It doesn't say anything about how much each group earns. And I'm pretty sure that the whales, orcas and dolphins earn more then minnows and red fish.

The reason why they are losing power is that those rich Steemonians are powering down. What other reason can there be for the MVests decrease of the Orcas in May?

Thats good to know. Seems like we have many Newbies who have to find their way up. I feel very positive about the next coming months :)

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Do you really think that you can ever make it to the Orca or whale status?
And do you think that most of the current orcas and whales wrote 1,500+ posts/comments per month?

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No I dont think that the most of them wrote even 500 posts, because the most of them are just investors. But yes I believe that I will be an Orca one day. I dont believe in the "Impossible" :)

Maybe a stupid question, but where can I find information about when you belong to which category of fish? Are there certain thresholds of Vests/SP you have to surpass?

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Already found it...

Really appreciate these 'equality posts' - encouraging to see the gradual leveling out.

It'd be interesting to get some correlations on Vests and engagement.

Some steem power are delegated o new users in order to enable them perform action on steemit, and you know we have so many of them.

I watch this report too and fear the sinking redfish number dropping so hard. It was close to 170K in January. Losing another 900 of them in May is not a good sign in my opinion.

This report shows we have less than 10K in "people who matter" here. The barriers to entry are so high, I do not see that increasing soon.

Out of the 20 or so people I have brought in here, only my son remains. Only because I hound him and help him. My two that had been trying this spring both gave up in May.

Sigh.

I never understood the negativity. I never worry about someone else’s wallet, nor do I get resentful about it. People do understand how a free market works here, don’t they?

great post!!!! I wish I had seen this while it was fresh.

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I do it monthly. Posted a brief update in my post this morning.

Minnows up over 2% in the month of June and Dolphins 1.5%. Orcas down again.