Why Steem user / post count is currently irrelevant

in #steem5 years ago

There have been a few posts talking about the number of users or more accurately, the lack there of. It is obvious that for Steem to really become something truly valuable in the future it requires many more users than it currently has but, I am not too concerned about user retention and attrition rates just yet as it is far too early.

The reason that I am not concerned is because of the entire cryptosphere population in general as for the most part, people are here for the profits, here for the ROI, here for the future possibility also. Yes, many have other plans for that future with various philosophical and political ambitions but, that is often secondary.

Here are the number of posts on Steem taken from @penguinpablo's stats a few days ago:

I have seen this used as an indicator that Steem is failing but is this actually true considering the types of people who are here? Look at the peak, that is when Steem and SBD were riding very high at the start of the year and people were posting heavily to get as much inflated SBD as possible. This is why there were so many posts on the platform, this is why there were so many people joining, this is when a great number of alt accounts were created to maximize extraction. It wasn't a sign of Steem's health, it was a market driven bubble.

A lot of those accounts are dead now. They are dead because the return they were getting at that point disappeared when the bears started to set up in the market place and the bulls went into hibernation instead. Remember that at that time there was a lot of activity and voting going on and due to the inflated SBD, it was worthwhile to spam the blockchain with alt accounts wanting votes but those times are gone and most of those alts lay dormant, as do the accounts who came in for reward. To me, this has been a great time to get an understanding of who is in crypto at the moment and watching the reactions of people who have different incentives and goals.

The cryptosphere is not a very large place, there aren't many users and, there is a massive amount of overlap between populations. It is a community that is dominated by profit maximization and coin collection and most users are spread transacting across several blockchains simultaneously. Yes, there is also more competition too with EOS, Smoke, Whaleshares etc attracting users which is great as they have a chance of being early adopters on new platforms if they pan out long-term. But, the core of the reasons most are attracted to new platforms is profit potential, not community.

People often compare Steem and similar to social media sites but as soon as there is true and widespread economic incentive available for all, that fundamentally changes what this is as economic conditions come into play. The state of the economy doesn't effect users on Facebook or Instagram for as far as most users are concerned, the two things are unconnected.

At Steem however, the platform and the economy of crypto are inextricably linked and impossible to tease apart as the market plays a core role in Steem. Yes, it also plays a core role in the other crypto platforms too but, they are much younger and and have the new and shiny attractor status but are still largely unproven in the marketplace with some not even having the capabilities to sell their tokens yet. That will change things too.

However, Steem is still growing, it is still developing and it is still getting ready for mainstreaming. What will stabilize something like post count is when there are millions of users who aren't here for only the economic incentive and possibility, they are also here to be consumers and users as they would any mainstream social service. The difference for them will be not only the chance at some value return on their content but, ease of usage of all the other services that will slowly be hooked onto the blockchains like banking and their billing needs. The coming advantages and savings of reducing middleman transactions will be an attractor in itself.

A large part of the cryptosphere problem with mainstreaming is that people are concerned with taking profits in the foundational phase at all levels which means that they continually buy back into the fiat system. This is actually not all bad news as it get people accustomed to usage and can actually lead to localized inflation through further pressure on centralized currencies but it does slow down the on chain value.

I can almost guarantee that when the bears decide that it is time for them to hibernate again and the bulls come out to play, the user levels, posts and engagement on Steem will boom once again, as it has done several times in the past already. With each new dip and climb though is that those who have been here all along or have long vision will continually increase influence over the platform while the value chasers will always be chasing.

It seems an unfortunate rule of society that people support the development of value peaks but hopefully the peaks can be flattened out a bit more each generation through education and distribution. However, as we look across platforms we will find the same types of people currently behaving in the same kinds of ways. Social rules, like code, can change though and this is part of the recoding of communities to take more responsibility for ourselves.

The largest single reason for the downturn in activity on Steem is not the community aspect, it is the bear market as people post here for reward and if the rewards are not significant enough, they will find places where there is more on offer. As the entire cryptospere matures there comes with it more stability and this will venture increasingly across platforms to provide more price parity for earning potential which will mean there will be less competition on price and more on what is offered by the community.

And this is why I don't worry too much about user retention in what I consider the short term because what is on offer is in continual development and will become the foundation of various communities to build upon. The additional potential of SMTs to differentiate and reward communities with a lot more versatility as well as the coming RC pools that can fundamentally change the way stakeholders interact with the blockchain, is going to make the dynamics of the platform change immensely.

No one is forced to be here and no one is forced to buy-in or sell-out, no one is forced to work here, no one is forced to be a part of the community at all. But. People have life conditions, needs and ambitions they are trying to overcome, negotiate with and satisfy and for many, they have become reliant on Steem or Steem equivalent incomes. This may be necessary for some but due to the immaturity of the cryptoshpere and volatility of the markets, reliance is a risky game.

While people chase profits and skip across platforms based on their current offers of ROI, there are others on those same platforms developing the infrastructure, their stake, their social network and the core community as a whole. If any of these platforms are successful, those who benefit the most will always be those with stake and, those who are core members of the staked communities.

The world we live in has been engineered to create chasers out of us, to make us skip from job to job for a little more that may do very little of significance. Those who truly value from the world aren't the chasers, it is the people who build the foundations, the businesses, the infrastructure, the services that facilitate the chase. While people are worried about the next big thing, they are there developing what it will sit upon. Steem in m opinion is one of those bases that will become a support for many users to chase their hopes and dreams.

Some may benefit from their chase, some won't, but those at the base that supports their feet will benefit always. To be at the base means to take the risk to stop running after value, and build something of value instead. Rather than looking at post numbers to get an indication of the health of the system, look at development growth and technological advancements instead. For now.

Taraz
[ a Steem original ]

Sort:  

I'm intrigued by @ned's recent statements about the upcoming official steem-based application to encourage widespread adoption. He's also clarified Steemit, Inc.'s stance on Steemit proper recently: It's not the way to take STEEM to mass adoption.

That's actually a good thing! This place is meant for trailblazers/early adopters/those with unusually high patience and perseverance. Soon, hopefully, come the systems to onboard everyday folks and new-blood investors :-)

Indeed. I am looking forward to seeing what @ned offers also considering he/they also have an idea of direction.

This place is meant for trailblazers/early adopters/those with unusually high patience and perseverance. Soon, hopefully, come the systems to onboard everyday folks and new-blood investors :-)

If people come in with price/reward expectation they are likely not going to stick around in the dips. If they are willing to stick around and make somewhat of a use out of themselves, there is a lot of opportunity.

With Steemit basically being in the infancy stage of development people must be patient. I can understand the lack of motivation to post, if in fact your only goal is to make $ now. I am happy for being fortunate enough not be in this position. I enjoy the interaction and the different opinions by community members. The one thing that I do not get is the math of it all. If you really do not need the daily payouts to augment your income then the upvotes and the $ that accompany the votes is directly relative to the price. With Steem being at about .80 it is a bargain. As you accumulate Steem, SBD, SP and can continue to bank these assets at the discounted rate, they are like other investments you may have. You may not see the returns at the moment, but down the road you never know!

If you really do not need the daily payouts to augment your income then the upvotes and the $ that accompany the votes is directly relative to the price. With Steem being at about .80 it is a bargain.

It is like any investment, people are risk shy. They are happy to pay 5 dollars a day for coffee (6 steem) but unwilling to buy a few steem with the same money. The difference is that they 'get a coffee' in the transaction which makes it seem worth it. Even if Steem was 7 cents again, very few would actually buy in. When it was 5, they said they would buy at a dollar.

Exactly.

Very well said - not to mention that skipping around takes a lot of effort each time you skip!

I agree that our culture encourages a chasing mentality... which results in the majority of people feeling as if they are playing catch up.

Much better to take the long view and slowly build something. Then you have a chance of getting ahead of the game!

Posted using Partiko Android

As you say, everyone has the right to work and invest their time as they wish, but I think that from the depth of knowing and investigating what it means and what the community to which you dedicate the time, dedicate love and enjoy it. of all that she offers you, to know the people your world your interests, will take you to the financial and personal success.

People have opportunities everyday to make small changes in their lives for the better yet few people take any of them, especially when they think it risky.

I just don't see the risk in kicking the Facebook habit and moving your social media activities over to Steem. An equal amount of time spent. One let's you accumulate tokens whose value may grow significantly over time. The other doesn't. One enables you to widen your circle of friends and acquaintances. The other not so much. One probably has something like a full standard deviation higher average IQ of users than the other. On one, you get to be a pioneer. On the other, you come to a set table but what you're going to eat you have no control over.

It would definitely be interesting to do qualified IQ tests across platforms :D

Yep. I bet Facebook had a much higher average IQ among users in the very beginning. It started out as a platform for geeks, then students at Harvard and much later the general public. For my wallet's sake, there is nothing I wish more strongly from this platform than for its average user IQ to drop drastically over time. :D (Check your Discord.)

Very true. People opened accounts when the bubble was inflating. Many lost hope in crypto. Not concerned.

Posted using Partiko Android

Those who lost hope are the ones who will help make massive profits for others.

Completely agree. The impatient make the patient money.

Posted using Partiko Android

I agree with your assessment as the amount of posts and spam have come down given that there is less short term incentive as well as now there being a cost with the resource credit system. Those that remain are the important ones as we are trying to create a sort of branding for each other and the communities being formed. I also think that part of the return are the people you get to engage with as well as the learning which has been exponential for me. If more focus on that, it will lead to a stronger foundation.

. I also think that part of the return are the people you get to engage with as well as the learning which has been exponential for me. If more focus on that, it will lead to a stronger foundation.

Most miss this, they stay narrowly focused on what they think gets them what they want while the opportunities continually pass them by.

Of course there will be an increase to signups and posts if Steem's price goes up as people go where the money is, this has happened several times in the over two years I have been on Steemit. Unfortunately this time there is competition, if people start getting good returns from Whaleshares or Weku or any other platform these people will not either return or join Steemit.

The competition won't matter, they won't need to return. There will be potentially 100 million users looking to come into the space over the next year or two. There is room for many chains. What Steem needs to do is make what it offeres attractive and get hooks into real world usage.

But that is exactly what it isn't doing, in fact many of the new things that have been happening have been putting users off, but well I guess the thing is to wait and see.

There is a process order when it comes to building infrastructure. Don't wait, interact :)

Lol, that's why @tcpolymath was correct.

Posted using Partiko Android

I am not too worried either. When it is meant to be it will move forward and the bears and bulls will all be there. Until then I continue to post like you. Blessings @tarazkp

You continue to post because you don't have a price point in mind other than a potential future one. You see that potential future price worth your current efforts while someone else doesn't see the future being worth it. It is an attitude and there is no way to convince everyone to see the same thing and therefore, no way to keep everyone.

Oh, I will also add that it isn't just about price for you as well, for some it is only about price.

If I could juggle the task of joining each and every blockchain community available probably I could. This is partially for the interaction... (Steemit has upped my perspective on life in general with a huge percentage) and partially for the investments reasons.

But it's impossible. At least for me it is. So I will not judge whoever think they can hack. My problem is with this bunch that posts only when prices peak! Why is that they want to have something they don't really work for? Constantly raiding a community they don't really care for.

Posted using Partiko Android

My problem is with this bunch that posts only when prices peak!

Don't worry too much about them as for the most part, they aren't going to get much out as more and more core members start to lock Steem stake away.

I can't wait for that to start happening... I wonder how many will crawl back to join an 'established' community. One with solid rules in place to deal with such greed!

Posted using Partiko Android

SMTs and the RC credits might play a part in this area.

Price does drive the interest and those are the ones for quick gains. I look around and I know quite a few of my regular names on my upvotes are missing. It is easy when you are fairly small to notice a vote here or there as they all count.

Yep. the voters come and go too and many decide to support themselves more heavily at low price also, which is understandable depending on how much :D

Coin Marketplace

STEEM 0.35
TRX 0.12
JST 0.040
BTC 70601.40
ETH 3576.96
USDT 1.00
SBD 4.75