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RE: EV 2.0 - Expected Value of BETA boosters - New Summoners! 🐉👾

in #steem5 years ago

I have a problem with calculation:
"The interesting part is with 500 packs purchase. In that case, you get a -15% of the 2USD value, which means each pack cost 1.7USD. That's the same of EV!"

So you tell that I should pay 1.7 USD per pack if I buy 500 packs and get 75 packs as bonus for 1000 Dollar.

But when I calculate 1000 / 575 I come to 1.74$ (1.7391 exactly) and not to 1.7$.

I think the mistake is that you calculate like discount (pay 850$ for 500 packs) and not like a bonus on top (get 575 packs for 1000$)

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Thanks for replying @schach. The idea on the final consideration is that mathematically you would get 1000 USD spent for 575 packs, so 1.74 as you said per pack. Still, aside the 0.04/0.08 difference in EV we can say that is really close. I calculated as you pointed that out, which is x-discount, whereas it's x+y where y is free packs

Given that variability is hard to be factored in statistical calculation, you are basically opening pack at exact EV, which gives great possibility of return in case of a couple of lucky cards.

Yes you can be lucky and get very good cards it's true, but I think that most packs you open will be worth less than 2$, so it's the question if it's better to buy the cards you need in market or buy packs.

If I buy the cards in the market I pay exactly the marcet price.

If I buy packs I will probably have many cards whom I don't need for several reasons, f.e. I have already max leveled card or also I don't want to use.

So I have to sell this cards and loose 5% for commission, so I have only 95% of the invested money for buying new cards this is also a point.

Neverthanless I really think about using this offert to buy 575 packs for 1000$ - do you know if their will be any promotion in the future ?

Also I used this upvote Service from Steemmonsters a few time. I listen that for this service you get especially status with higer upvote value if you buy this 575 packs - Is this true ?

Hey @schach! Yeah, you get a status called Maverick which means you get a (lot) better upvote from the @steemmonsters.
For the offer, I don't know until it last because I'm not part of the team. If prices keep rising as they are, it's indeed a great offer to take advantage with this EV!

ok thank you very much for this information. So it would be in every case a benefit this Maverick status and probably If worth of cards from this 575 packs don't reach 1000$ after some time you could earn difference by upvotes through this maverick status - so it's quite a good idea I think.

@schach yeah, exactly. It's a status to promote and support people that are heavily invested into the game

Good article.

If prices keep rising as they are...

Interesting thing I have noticed is that despite prices rising my deck value went down in the meantime by ~25%.
If prices will rise a few per cent more, market will be flooded by traders who can afford buying 500 + 75 pack deals. 2 USD per pack is a strong barrier preventing any larger movements, one way or another (up or down).
Even if steemmonsters will get ~1mln USD for the remaining packs, they will likely issue new gamma or whatever called line of cards. Unless it's valued $5 or so per pack, barrier will remain. If valued so high, it will make difficult for new players to join.

It's very difficult to sell cards at market prices within a week or so, especially that prices on less popular cards are only theoretical - one needs to list a card with 50% (or so) discount to be able to get actual sale.

it's indeed a great offer to take advantage with this EV

Thus I wouldn't endorse buying packs based on calculated EV.

Each person is free to choose which actions to perform. I wanted to calculate EV given that the new 5-mana summoners have a really high value and I felt that there is a lot more value now than before.
Not the general prices went upwards, but specific one as I tried to outline in the consideration section. Cards like Peaceful Giant are almost 3x what they were a couple of month ago, meanwhile other cards lost a lot in value.

Thanks for your comment on the post, glad you enjoyed it.

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